Are there two better words in professional sports than Game 7?
That's what we have in the Eastern Conference Finals with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line on Monday night.
The Boston Celtics need a win to become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, and they are 7.5-point favorites to do so. With that in mind, what's the path for this game in the prop market?
I've had a great Conference Finals picking props, so here are three I'm considering for Game 7:
Heat vs. Celtics best NBA prop bets for Game 7
- Jayson Tatum UNDER 48.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points
- Caleb Martin UNDER 7.5 Rebounds
Jayson Tatum UNDER 48.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Call me crazy, but this number is way too high for Jayson Tatum in Game 7.
The Celtics star has cleared this line just twice in this series, and in his career in Game 7 he's cleared it once – in his 51-point game against the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round.
Tatum averages an impressive 28.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in Game 7s in his career, but he's come up short of this number in five of his six showings.
This isn't a knock on Tatum, this number just feels inflated.
Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points
While we're talking about inflated numbers, how about Jaylen Brown's points prop?
Brown scored 26 points in Game 6, but he's failed to clear 22.5 points in any other game in this series, and that's where his prop has been for several games.
Well, after his 26-point Game 6, it has risen to 24.5 in Game 7.
To put it simply, Brown has gone UNDER 24.5 points in 10 of his 13 games since the start of the second round of the playoffs. This is an overreaction on his points in such a crucial game. Go UNDER.
Caleb Martin UNDER 7.5 Rebounds
A lot of UNDERs for today's picks!
Caleb Martin started in Game 6 and played 41 minutes, grabbing a playoff–high 15 rebounds in the process.
That takes his rebounds prop from 4.5 to 7.5 for Game 7, but I simply can't get behind the OVER after one big rebounding game.
Martin has cleared 7.5 rebounds just four times in 17 games in these playoffs, averaging 5.5 boards per game.
Even in an extended role, asking Martin to grab eight boards feels like a lot, and there's a chance he doesn't play 41 minutes again depending on the game flow. Don't overreact to this line movement and go UNDER.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
