The Minnesota Twins have pushed ahead of the pack in the AL Central so far this season, and now will look to hold its lead against an NL team that is looking to contend in the Padres.
The Twins will start Louie Varland at home on Tuesday night in hopes that the righty can find his footing in his first full season in the big leagues. He'll be countered by Padres veteran Michael Wacha, who is on the other end of his career, trending towards the end as he struggles in his first season with San Diego.
How should we bet this one with two pitchers struggling so far this season and the odds indicating a near coin flip?
Let's check out the odds:
Padres vs. Twins odds, run line and total
Padres vs. Twins prediction and pick
I think the Padres is getting too much respect in this matchup given that the Twins are near equals if not better than them across the board.
Let's start with the pitching matchup as Wacha is coming off one of his best outings of the season, shutting out the Reds across six innings. However, in the prior three starts, Wacha couldn't pitch past the fifth inning in any of them and posted a 10.13 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .397.
While Varland is inexperienced, he has made seven starts across two seasons, I believe better times are ahead with his ability to find strikeouts. He has struck out 35 batters across over 38 innings in his young career.
Once this hits the bullpen, count on the Twins as well, who are getting elite production from its relievers, 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.58. The Padres are about a half run behind them in the bullpen.
At the plate, the two teams are closely rated. The Padres are over-reliant on drawing walks, top three in walk rate, but Varland has been able to throw strikes thus far. For the Twins offense, the team has struck out far too often, over 25%, but Wacha is punching out less than eight batters per nine innings this season, a below average mark, so the Twins biggest flaw won't be exploited.
I don't see much between these two teams, so I'll give the nod to the home team to get it done at a cheap price.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
