Which US Open sleepers should catch your eye at Los Angeles Country Club? We're breaking down five US Open dark horse picks who fit well at LACC.
When you think about the setups that the USGA often offers for their June major championship, it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that US Open sleepers haven't had the greatest amount of success, historically. Out of the last 10 winners, only Gary Woodland in 2019 at Pebble Beach (+8000) had longer than +5000 odds to win pre-tournament. Brooks Koepka in 2017 at Erin Hills (+4500) has the next longest odds of the last 10 victors.
So as we go to make our 2023 US Open dark horse picks for Los Angeles Country Club this week, that's certainly something to keep in mind. And yet, there's always a world where you can talk yourselves into longshots, even at a major. LACC this week is absolutely no exception to that. If there are sleepers with long odds who fit the tee-to-green and short game we believe is required to succeed here, why not take a flier given that almost no one has played this track competitively before?
With that in mind, let's dive down the odds board at the 2023 US Open and find the players who fit that bill. These are five US Open dark horse picks who, based on the numbers and narratives, have a chance to win at LACC.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
US Open dark horse picks: 5 sleepers who could win at LACC
US Open sleepers No. 5: Russell Henley (+10000)
Russell Henley is never going to be a sexy pick in any capacity. But when he's playing well, it's always impossible to ignore him and, more pressingly, he has a knack for putting himself in the mix in some capacity.
For several months earlier in the year, Henley couldn't find his bread and butter as an approach player, but that has changed over his last few tournaments. He's gaining 1.86 weighted strokes on approach over his last 16 rounds, a stretch that includes three T19 or better finishes, and gaining across the board.
With how dialed he clearly is on approach right now combined with his always-accurate driving, the putter is always a big worry with Henley as it can go Siberia cold at times, but the fit is there for him to have a ton of success based on what we expect from LACC this week.
US Open sleepers No. 4: Gary Woodland (+13000)
Getting to put a previous US Open winner on a list of dark horse picks feels like a bit of a cheat code but, for whatever reason, Gary Woodland is sitting here at 130/1 for Los Angeles Country Club and that's not something I'm going to overlook.
Woodland has been one of the truly elite ball strikers on the PGA Tour this season, currently gaining 2.23 weighted strokes tee-to-green over his last 16 rounds. The bugaboo with the 2019 national champ is the putter. That has continued as he's lost more than half a weighted stroke per round over that same span with the flat stick.
Having said that, with the speed of these greens at LACC this week and the emphasis on ball striking, you can't count out Woodland as a potential sleeper who could make US Open noise once again.
US Open sleepers No. 3: Eric Cole (+21000)
Of the 2023 US Open dark horse picks we're running through for this week, Eric Cole has the longest odds of this quintet. But when you dive into the numbers, that might actually be far too long given how well he's playing.
Cole has six Top 25 finishes in his last eight starts, including a peak at T6 last week in Canada. He's gaining strokes with ball striking consistently but, even more so, has been impressive around the green, which is going to be a test this week on these fast-rolling greens, gaining 1.03 strokes around the green over the last 16 rounds, eighth-best over that span among PGA Tour players in the field.
His approach play has been good but a bit spotty. If he can dial that in a bit, or if he can recover well still around the green, Cole is playing well enough right now to definitely be considered a live sleeper this week.
US Open sleepers No. 2: Phil Mickelson (+18000)
Not only are we including a 52-year-old in our dark horse picks, it's the 52-year-old who infamously has never been able to win the US Open. But such is life when we look at Phil Mickelson.
Truth be told, we don't have a ton of numbers on Mickelson's recent form as LIV Golf doesn't provide strokes gained data. However, we saw him end up at T2 at The Masters and we know that nothing gets Mickelson's blood pumping in the right ways on a golf course like having to exercise creativity and playing out of funky situations.
That's going to be in order this week at LACC and, with Mickelson reportedly spending a ton of time practicing in Los Angeles over recent weeks, it's hard not to believe in him potentially making his noise at what might be his last best chance to win a US Open in his career.
US Open sleepers No. 1: Denny McCarthy (+10000)
The narrative has finally turned a bit with Denny McCarthy, who has long been widely regarded as perhaps the best putter on the PGA Tour. He's still that, without question, but he's also been a guy who has played extremely well at tough courses, most recently losing in a playoff at the Memorial.
McCarthy has improved his ball striking tremendously, gaining 1.14 weighted strokes on approach over the last 16 rounds and driving the ball accurately overall (though the 18th hole at Memorial would beg to differ there). When you combine that with his short game, it's hard to not like what you see.
It's understandable that McCarthy isn't one of the favorites, but his improved game and the trends suggest that he could very much be a factor at LACC with the test that 2023 US Open will ask him and this field to pass.
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