The MLB Winter Meetings will commence on Monday, Dec. 6 in Nashville, Tennessee. Rather than touring the music scene, however, MLB general managers and support staff will convene to discuss the future of baseball.
Expect several free agent deals and trades to materialize during the meetings. Players and agents will gather alongside management. There is an expectation that Shohei Ohtani could make his final decision in Nashville. He is the offseason's great white whale — the biggest domino left standing. If Ohtani signs, expect the floodgates to open.
On the trade front, several noteworthy names have been circulating the rumor mill lately. There is still much unknown about the exact dimensions of the market, but blockbusters are coming down the pipeline. It's a matter of when, not if.
Here are five trades that could shake the foundation of the MLB next week.
Guardians could offload Shane Bieber in the final year of his contract
Shane Bieber enters the final year of his contract with the Cleveland Guardians. As FanSided's Robert Murray reports, the free agent pitching market is "nuts," with teams starting to look for alternative options. That places Bieber squarely on the chopping block.
"The Guardians have an extensive history of trading players before having to pay them big contracts, evidenced by the Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco and other trades. And Bieber, who is 28... will be an appealing trade target for teams considering he's controllable, his past performance, and that he's still arbitration eligible."
Bieber won't come cheap, but last season qualified as a mild disappointment. That, combined with the short-term nature of his contract, could keep the price reasonable. Murray projects the odds of a Bieber trade at "5/10." Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff expressed a desire for Bieber to start the 2024 season with the Guardians, but circumstances change fast in the MLB. If the right offer comes along in a market desperate for pitchers, it would behoove the Guardians to act — especially if there aren't plans to re-sign Bieber next offseason.
The 2023 campaign was a mixed bag for Bieber, who went 6-6 on the mound with a 3.80 ERA and 1.234 WHIP — his worst marks since his rookie season. Bieber doesn't have much velocity behind his fastball (91.3 MPH), but he sports a vast collection of off-speed pitches and he's not mistake-prone, posting a low 6.4 walk percentage in the MLB's 80th percentile.
Teams trading for Bieber will bank on past performance. He won Cy Young during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and he has two All-Star appearances on his résumé. Bieber posted a 2.88 ERA in 2022 and a 1.63 ERA in 2020, prior to the shutdown. When he's right, Bieber is a proper ace.
Rays could trade another expiring starting pitcher in Tyler Glasnow
There has been palpable anticipation circling Tyler Glasnow and the Tampa Bay Rays in recent days. It's clear the franchise is open to dealing the hard-throwing righty, who is due $25 million in 2024 before hitting free agency next winter.
At 6-foot-8, there's a natural intimidation factor to Glasnow, who packs 96 MPH heat on his fastball with a slippery 90 MPH slider. He was as advertised last season, posting a 10-7 record with a 3.53 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. He only managed 21 starts and 120 innings due to various injuries, but he was electric when available. A strikeout maestro, Glasnow tossed 162 K's while only allowing 37 walks.
The Chicago Cubs have been a primary source of interest in Glasnow, while other pitcher-needy teams such as the Atlanta Braves or Detroit Tigers could also join the fray. There is reportedly concern about Glasnow's lack of durability, not to mention the volatility of his contract situation. But, when a starter lands in the 94th percentile for whiff rate (35.2) and the 97th percentile for strikeout rate (33.4), per Baseball Savant, somebody will talk themselves into a trade.
FanSided's Robert Murray graded the odds of a Glasnow trade at "9.8/10," so it's bound to happen. The question is, does it happen before, during, or after Winter Meetings? Here's how Murray painted Glasnow's situation.
"There is a very, very, very real chance that Glasnow is traded. The remaining one-year, $25 million left on his contract makes him a very difficult piece for the small-market Rays to keep and considering that they are highly unlikely to keep him, trading him has always been the most realistic option."
Expect a team with deep pockets and the motivation to acquire a high-level starter to make their move. Murray cites the Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds, specifically, as part of "half a dozen" teams exploring the possibility of Glasnow.
White Sox could finally deal Dylan Cease as speculation increases
Dylan Cease followed up his second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 with a largely disappointing 2023 campaign. His ERA ballooned to 4.58 and his WHIP landed at 1.418, compounded by a lousy 7-9 record. The Chicago White Sox didn't offer Cease the necessary offensive support, but he did not produce at the All-Star level fans expected.
Now, the 27-year-old is a prime trade candidate. Cease is under team control for two more years, plus he's young. That makes him especially valuable, even with last season's struggles taken into account. Chicago has appeared more than willing to deal key pieces in an effort to rebuild under new GM Chris Getz.
FanSided's Robert Murray placed the odds of a Cease trade at 75 percent.
"Of any pitcher not named Tyler Glasnow on the trade market, Dylan Cease has the best chance to be moved. The White Sox have signaled to teams that they will listen on anyone on their roster and are willing to move them if the right offer comes along. That goes for Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and it certainly goes for Cease. And if the White Sox do move Cease, who is under control for two more seasons, they should get an astronomical haul in return."
The White Sox would surely love an astronomical haul. Now is theoretically the best time to cut ties with Cease, while his value is still high despite recent underperformance. Chicago will no doubt prioritize prospect capital. Murray cites the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and Baltimore Orioles as a few logical destinations.
Cease fell victim to walk problems last season, but he posted a strong strikeout rate (27.3 percent) and whiff rate (31.0 percent), proving that batters will still swing through his 95.6 MPH fastball and chase his trusty slider. If he can return to 2022 form — 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA — Cease will profile as one of the best (relatively) young arms in baseball for his next team, assuming there is a next team.
Astros could be proactive and trade Alex Bregman before 2024 free agency
The Houston Astros' repeat bid in the American League fell inches short, with a seven-game loss to the Texas Rangers in a hotly contested ALCS. Now, the roster figures to look much different next season. Dusty Baker is out, while longstanding clubhouse leader Martin Maldonado has one foot out the door in free agency.
That said, a more pivotal offseason for the Astros could arrive in 2024 when Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are both slated to hit free agency. The overwhelming consensus appears to be that Houston will only pay one superstar infielder — Altuve. That opens the door for Bregman to be whisked away to a new franchise before the season starts.
One has to imagine the Astros can field a massive return for the 29-year-old Bregman, who has two All-Star appearances on his résumé. He finished second in MVP voting back in 2019, and fifth the year before. Last season, he still finished 22nd despite the wealth of talent on Houston's roster and the relative disappointment of their 90-win regular season.
Bregman slashed .262/.363/.441 with 25 home runs and 98 RBIs in 2023, making 724 plate appearances across 161 games. He managed more walks (92) than strikeouts (87) while anchoring the early portion of Houston's lineup, often as the No. 2 hitter.
"I think [the Astros] are listening," said MLB insider Jim Duquette. "Keep on eye on Alex Bregman."
If Houston decides to sell high on Bregman, rather than extending him to a lucrative contract, several teams should make their pitch. One recent proposal from MLB.com sent Bregman to the New York Yankees as part of a massive four-team construct. He would help a number of contenders with his potent bat and sturdy glove at the hot corner.
The Padres could shake the MLB's foundation by trading Juan Soto
The true superstar circling the trade rumor mill lately has been San Diego Padres slugger Juan Soto. While the Padres are "not shopping" Soto actively, per FanSided's Robert Murray, the odds of a trade land around 70 percent because of the potential financial benefits for San Diego.
Last season was a difficult one for the Padres, who fielded one of the MLB's highest payrolls, only to finish the season two games above .500 and in need of a $50 million loan to cover salaries. Since the Padres can't rely on the current iteration of the team to contend, a trade or two is inevitable. It's only a matter of whether or not Soto is part of those deals.
There is an understanding that San Diego loves Soto and would love to keep him around, but the 25-year-old is eligible to hit free agency after the 2024 season. He will demand a significant contract on the open market, and there's no guarantee he would stick around in San Diego. Especially if the Padres can't reach contention. That, combined with the robust trade packages the Padres might receive in return, could facilitate Soto's exit as soon as next week's meetings in Nashville.
Here's what San Diego can expect in a trade, per Murray.
"If the Padres do trade Soto, they will not get a package similar to the six-player haul they surrendered to acquire him from the Washington Nationals. But a full season of Soto is incredibly valuable, and should net the Padres at least two top prospects and possibly more."
Soto has been connected to several contenders, with the New York Yankees standing out as an obvious frontrunner. He was an absolute monster for the Padres last season, appearing in all 162 games (708 plate appearances) and slashing .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs and 109 RBIs. That durability, efficiency, and explosiveness will make him priority No. 1 for a lot of teams, especially if Ohtani comes off the board sooner than later.
