The Atlanta Braves edged out the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night and now the Phillies will try to avenge the loss in Game 2 of their NL East series.
It's a rough pitching matchup on Friday night as Taijuan Walker (5.79 ERA0 takes on Jared Shuster (5.49 ERA).
Does that mean we should fade both pitchers and just back the OVER? Not so fast.
Let's take a look at the odds and then I'll break down why I think we should zig instead of zag in this spot.
Phillies vs. Braves odds, run line, and total
Phillies vs. Braves prediction and pick
The OVER may seem like the obvious bet when you see the pitching matchup, but I'll argue the UNDER is actually the bet to make.
The Phillies are 8th in the Majors in OPS when facing right-handed pitchers with a mark of .757, but that number drops to .704 when facing left-handed pitchers. Tonight, they'll face a lefty starter in Jared Shuster, who's coming off his best start of the season, allowing only one hit and one earned run in 6.0 innings pitched against the Mariners.
On the other side of things, the Braves OPS drops from .947 against lefties to .729 against righties. Tonight, they'll take on right-handed starter, Taijuan Walker, who is also coming off his best performance of the season, pitching 5.1 scoreless innings against the Cubs.
Let's trust those splits and take the UNDER tonight, especially with it set at the high mark of doulble-digits.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
