This season looked promising for the Pittsburgh Pirates in April and the San Diego Padres came into the year thinking World Series, yet it's nearly July and both teams are stuck in fourth place in their respective divisions. At 35-42, the Pirates are 5.5 games out of first in the NL Central while the Padres are 9.5 games out of the NL West lead at 37-41.
Now, the two clubs are set for a three-game series in Pittsburgh and for Game 1 San Diego will go with Yu Darvish and hope for a bounce-back after three consecutive shaky starts. Darvish is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA. The Pirates need the same from their veteran, Rich Hill who is 6-7 after back-to-back losses and has a 4.34 ERA.
Here are the odds for Tuesday's series opener:
Padres vs. Pirates odds, run line and total
Padres vs. Pirates prediction and pick
The question of the day is: Will the Pirates score a single run? There's a pretty good chance that the answer is no. Pittsburgh has lost 12 of their last 13 games and they have been shut out four times in that stretch, including Sunday against Eury Perez and the Marlins. Only the White Sox and Yankees have scored less runs in the month of June and only the Yankees have an OPS worse than the Pirates' .626.
On top of the fact that the Pirates are basically the worst team in baseball since their 20-8 start to the season, they are now without their best player, Bryan Reynolds who is on the 10-day IL with lower back inflammation. They can't score against any pitcher right now, but it'll be even worse against Yu Darvish who is better than his numbers indicate.
Darvish has a FIP of 3.85 and an expected ERA of 3.61, both a run lower than his ERA. His ERA has recently ballooned because of a four run outing against the Rockies, in Colorado, a six run start against the Rays, the best team in baseball, and another four run start last time out against the red-hot Giants. Now, he gets to settle back in against an abysmal lineup.
The Padres will counter a Pittsburgh lineup with the likes of Josh Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae, with Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado. I think we know how this story ends. Back San Diego on the road.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
