What every NBA fan has been waiting for all season is finally here.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off on Thursday night, and we get one step closer to crowning a champion in the process.
History will be made in this series between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets no matter who wins. Denver is searching for its first title in franchise history, while the Heat could become the first No. 8 seed to ever win a title.
I dropped a couple of my plays on Twitter yesterday, but I have a full card to share, with breakdowns for each play included.
Let's dive in!
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 349-307-4 (+10.9758 units)
NBA best bets today
- Denver Nuggets 1Q -3 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
- Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)
- Kyle Lowry OVER 3.5 Assists (-105)
Denver Nuggets 1Q -3 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
All season long, Denver has been elite in the first quarter, and that has continued into the playoffs.
Denver ranks No. 2 among playoff teams in first quarter net rating (11.8) behind only the Los Angeles Clippers, who played just five games. The Nuggets are also first in the NBA in first quarter offensive rating this postseason.
Adjusting to the altitude in Denver is tough, and Miami is coming off a hard-fought series. Teams that play a Game 7 are just 33-53 straight up in Game 1 of the following series all time.
The Nuggets finished the regular season fourth in net rating and third in offensive rating in the first quarter at home, and they have showcased elite shooting in the playoffs with all five starters shooting at least 35.0 percent from 3.
I love the Nuggets to get out to a hot start in Game 1.
Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
Nikola Jokic has given Bam Adebayo fits over the last three seasons, and I don't know what Miami can really do to slow him down.
The Heat lack the interior defense outside of Adebayo to truly handle Jokic, and he's been absolutely dominant this postseason, averaging a triple-double.
Jokic has picked up at least 51 points, rebounds and assists in eight of his last nine playoff games. In the NBA Finals, I expect him to have his handprints all over Game 1.
Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)
Bruce Brown is going to be an important player for Denver once again in this series, especially if the Heat decide to go small.
The veteran guard shot 35.8 percent from 3 during the regular season, and while that number has dipped in the playoffs, he's still made at least one shot from deep in five of his last six games.
Brown is going to take open shots, and he's attempted 2.5 shots from deep per game over the course of the playoffs. However, over his last six games that number has increased to 3.2.
I'll take Brown to find the range from deep, as I expect him to be one of the players Miami is content with leaving from 3.
Kyle Lowry OVER 3.5 Assists (-105)
This is a sneaky prop for Kyle Lowry, who has cleared this number in 10 games since the start of the second round and 11 times in 18 playoff games.
The Heat guard has NBA Finals experience, and I expect him to see some solid run in this game since Miami is going to need all the shooting/shot creation it can get against a potent Denver offense.
Lowry is averaging 4.3 assists per game in the playoffs, so getting this at 3.5 with just -105 odds feels like a bit of a steal in Game 1.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
