The Mercury and Wings meet for a second time this week after Dallas handed Phoenix a second straight loss on Wednesday night.
Dallas is off to a 4-3 start this season while the Mercury have struggled at 1-4. The Wings try to force the tempo and while neither team could buy a bucket in the first meeting, there was a combined 153 points. With a slight uptick in efficiency due to natural regression, can we get an over?
Let's break down the odds and find out:
Mercury vs. Wings odds, spread and total
Mercury vs. Wings prediction and pick
A lot of why I like the over in Friday's matchup is due to what we saw on Wednesday.
The pace was fast, the second fastest game of the WNBA season, per WNBA.com, but the team's combined to shoot 11-of-49 from three, a dismal mark. Each team made up for it with a ton of free throws, the Wings took 27 freebies while the Mercury got to the charity stripe 13 times, but overall, the team's couldn't buy a bucket.
The game stayed under the total of 167.5, but with some natural regression from beyond the arc, this total can fly over. I also am bullish on the idea of fading the Mercury defense that is allowing the fourth most points per 100 possessions this season, yet is allowing the lowest three-point percentage (29%). The defense is poor, but it still hasn't showed up in the results.
I'll back both offenses to get it going in another up-tempo affair and go over on Friday night.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
