After going up in weight to face lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, Alexander Volkanovski is back at featherweight to face interim champion Yair Rodriguez.
Volkanovski has never lost at this weight class, and is the heavy favorite to stay that way on Saturday night in the UFC 290 main event. Rodriguez enters as the challenger after back-to-back wins, including a second round submission victory against Josh Emmett in February.
Can Rodriguez hold up against Alexander "The Great"? Here are the odds and our best bet:
Yair Rodriguez vs. Alexander Volkanovski odds and total
Moneyline:
- Rodriguez: +290
- Volkanovski: -380
Total: 4.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Alexander Volkanovski prediction and pick
While Rodriguez overwhelmed the 38-year-old Emmett at UFC 284, this run to the title is not that impressive. The fight prior, Rodriguez beat Brian Ortega, who suffered an injury in the first round, after losing to Max Holloway in November of 2021 in five rounds.
Volkanovski has shown improved grappling capabilities, evident against one of the most vicious MMA tactician's in Makhachev at a higher weight class this past February. Further, he pushes a pace that Rodriguez will not feel comfortable with. He averages nearly two more significant strikes per minute at a 10% more accurate clip. Volkanovski also bolsters the cardio edge, averaging more than 17 minutes of fight time in the UFC due to his championship level experience.
"El Pantera" enters five inches taller than the champion, but Volkanovski has the same reach and his size differential has not proved to be an issue, evident in wins against Holloway in the past.
Rodriguez has a fairly soft resume in comparison to Volkanovski, and I think the champion finds a finish with his relentless pace and striking prowess. Using "The Great" in a parlay is viable, but I'll be adding him to win inside the distance.
PICK: Volkanovski Inside the Distance +130
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
