The regular season begins tonight. At the end of last week, Chris Kline and I shared our win predictions for every NBA team and we're adding some award picks just under the wire. Here's who we each see running away with every major NBA award.
MVP Predictions:
Chris Kline's pick – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
At long last, Nikola Jokic has cemented his (earned) reputation as the best player in basketball. There simply isn't another individual who impacts winning at the level Jokic does. He's the most efficient scoring hub the league, combined with a preternatural gift for elevating teammates and greasing the gears on Denver's offense. The defense isn't even as bad as his detractors suggest. The Nuggets are positioned to mow through the regular season again and it's hard to imagine Jokic, with less handwringing about his "postseason failure," not being the heavy favorite here. That'll be his third MVP trophy, for those counting at home.
Ian Levy's pick – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Giannis already has two MVP Awards so there may be some voter fatigue and it's possible that public perception actually punishes his MVP candidacy because he has Damian Lillard augmenting everything he does now. But, with a new extension signed and the Bucks' immediate future secure, I'm expecting a monstrous season from Giannis — with productivity and efficiency that's simply to dominant to ignore.
Defensive Player of the Year Predictions:
Chris Kline's pick – Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
It's time. Evan Mobley is due for a major leap. A boost in offensive production will probably help his case here — it's more impressive to be the best defensive player in the world while also carrying a significant offensive burden. Mobley is the ultimate do-everything big. Cleveland will use him at the top of a zone, have him chase wings, use him as a traditional rim protector, or allow him to float on the weak side. There isn't a more malleable defensive 7-footer in the NBA. The Cavs are going to rank near the top of the NBA in defense and probably win a bunch of games.
Ian Levy's pick – Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Going into his third season, Evan Mobley is more prepared than ever to utilize his unique defensive tools and awareness and the Cavs are more ready than ever to make the most of them. I think the Cavs could potentially join the Bucks and the Celtics in the premier tier at the top of the East and if they do it will be Mobley's dominant defense that elevates them above the rest of the morass, taking them from very good to elite.
Sixth Man of the Year Predictions:
Chris Kline's pick – Al Horford, Celtics
The Celtics will win a metric ton of games. Joe Mazzulla has hinted at using variable starting lineups depending on matchups, but one has to imagine Horford is the primary — maybe even exclusive — sixth man for the new-look Celtics. He probably should be, at least. He has lost a step at 37 years old, but there's still too much basketball intellect and veteran savvy to overlook. Horford has been an integral piece of connective tissue for Boston over the years. That should continue, even off the bench. This award tends to go to flashy scorers, but Horford's reputation and the Celtics' record could make him an exception.
Ian Levy's pick – Eric Gordon, Suns
I think the Suns top-heavy roster actually lends itself more to regular-season success and it wouldn't surprise me if they finish with the best record in the West as their oft-injured perimeter scorers trade off leading an elite offense. In that scenario there is plenty of room for the supporting cast to make key contributions, a potential foundation for Eric Gordon's Sixth Man of the Year campaign. He's going to get an absurd number of open 3s and plenty of opportunities to put up the kind of off-the-bench scoring outputs that usually command this award.
Most Improved Player Predictions:
Chris Kline's pick – Devin Vassell, Spurs
A bit outside the box, I know. The obvious favorites of Mikal Bridges, Tyrese Maxey, and Cade Cunningham deserve the recognition, but this is typically not an award that adheres to preseason predictions. I'm not sure Cunningham (a consensus No. 1 pick coming back from injury) or Bridges (already a star based on the second half of last season) really fit the spirit of the award. Maxey will put up more numbers, but improvement is another matter entirely. Devin Vassell signed a big extension and he doesn't really get the credit he deserves. There was a lot of head-scratching at that $134 million number, but he's going to thrive as the No. 2 for a Spurs team due for more eyeballs as audiences flock to the Wemby Show. Vassell can defend at a high level, he's getting more and more comfortable creating on the ball, and he can shoot the lights out.
Ian Levy's pick – Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors
There are still so many rough edges in Kuminga's game but I was really impressed by his aggressiveness and physical assertiveness in the preseason. He looks like a young player who has perhaps learned some lessons from last year's difficult regular season and won't repeat the same mistakes. There are going to be some turnovers and bad shots, but also ton of defensive impact plays, a lot of dominant physical plays and potentially the forceful big man play the Warriors' second-unit desperately needs.
Rookie of the Year Predictions:
Rookie of the Year – Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
We've all seen the tape now. So long as he's healthy, it's difficult to imagine another player taking home this award. Wembanyama does it on both ends. He will score at every level, he appears to be taking an underrated passing leap before our eyes (and before he even reaches the league proper), and the defense is off the charts. He's going to have a profound impact on the Spurs, and even if San Antonio doesn't win a bunch of games in year one, the foundation is rock solid.
Ian Levy's pick – Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
This one feels like the biggest lock. He's going to average 20 points per game be an absolute force on defense, put up a handful of viral highlights every night and help the Spurs win way more games than most people are expecting. This one is a slam dunk, without even jumping.
Coach of the Year Predictions:
Chris Kline's pick – Rick Carlisle, Pacers
A veteran coach who is about to take his team from 35 wins to the playoffs. Tyrese Haliburton will get his share of credit, but the Pacers' roster isn't loaded by traditional standards. It will be a balanced, collective effort led by a coach who has consistently outclassed his peers for over two decades. Carlisle last won this award in 2002. When the Pacers end up as more than a spunky underdog, expect Carlisle to get showered with well-deserved praise.
Ian Levy's pick – Jamahl Mosley, Magic
I picked the Magic to finish 40-42 this season, a six game improvement and enough to put them firmly into the Play-In Tournament. I think they have a solid foundation, budding stars, depth and a chance of swinging a big in-season trade for a strong closing kick. I think they're this year's version of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Mosley will get a ton of credit for finally getting them moving in the right direction.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo has seen enough
After spending the early part of the offseason declining to sign an extension with the Bucks and publicly stating his desire to see the team reconfirm their status as a consistent contender, Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a massive three-year extension on the eve of the regular season.
The difference, obviously, was the massive trade for Damian Lillard. Clearly this was enough to convince Giannis that the future was bright in Milwaukee. One of the biggest potential chaos agents (a Giannis trade request) for the next few seasons is now off the table.
READ MORE:
- Agent: Giannis Antetokounmpo secures 3-year, $186M extension by Adrian Wojnarowski, for ESPN
- Reaction, analysis to Giannis Antetokounmpo inking max extension
by Dalton Sell, for Behind the Buck Pass
QUICK HITTER: Grading last-minute rookie extensions
Yesterday was the deadline for players from the 2020 NBA Draft to sign rookie extensions and a flurry of deals came in just under the wire. Here's how each deal shakes out from a team perspective.
Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks: 4 years, $62 million
This is an absolute steal for the Hawks. Okongwu is already a strong rebounder, a plus defender in space and around the rim and a savvy finisher. He has untapped offensive upside (that may never be tapped just running pick-and-rolls with Trae Young) and is still coming into his own on that end. This should allow the Hawks to feel more confident shopping Clint Capela and lock in a solid two-way starting center at a very team-friendly cap figure.
Grade: A+
Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves: 5 years, $136 million
This was the sixth-biggest extension for this rookie class — only Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Desmond Bane and Devin Vassell signed for more — and I think this winds up looking like a fairly significant overpay. He did average 12.1 points per game last season, play strong and versatile defense and make nearly 40 percent of his 3s. But I'm not sure how much more upside there is and this is a big cap hit for someone who might just be a high-end role player. Especially when they could have taken things to restricted free agency next season and potentially gotten him at a lower price.
Grade: B-
Josh Green, Dallas Mavericks: 3 years, $41 million
This is fine I guess. Green plays decent defense and made 40 percent of his 3s last year, albeit on a fairly low volume. I'm not sure he ever turns into much more than he is now but this isn't a dramatic overpay for a solid role player.
Grade: B
Zeke Nnaji, Denver Nuggets: 4 years, $32 million
The Nuggets are going to need to build out a solid, cheap rotation around their high-priced stars and getting value with young players and rookie extensions is key. Nnaji isn't a game-changer but he's a solid gamble to lock in at $8 million per season for the next four.
Grade: B+
Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers: 3 years, $33 million
The Pacers clearly like Nesmith and there's a good chance he winds up as the backup 4 this season, beyond Obi Toppin and with top rookie Jarace Walker spending a good bit of time in the G League. The Pacers need shooters on the wing and even though he's been mostly disappointing in that regard, his size on the wing and two-way potential make him worth the risk at this price.
Grade: B
Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards: 4 years, $55 million
Avdija has been as far out of the limelight as anyone in this class, playing on terrible teams behind louder personalities. He still hasn't developed much as a shooter but he's a versatile wing, very good on defense and with upside as a secondary creator. This is probably an overpay but the Wizards need upside and they're probably not going to be spending this money on anything more significant over the next few years.
Grade: B-
Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic: 3 years, $39 million
This one seems like an absolute steal for the Magic. He's probably not a starting point guard for a good team and has been carrying too much offensive responsibility the past few seasons. But he should be solid as a complementary scorer and creator off the bench and he's going to look better as his role and shot selection are constrained by the better talent around him. In addition, this is a very tradable combination of cap figure and talent the Magic could use in a deal later this season.
Grade: A
As interesting as the players who signed, are the players who didn't — Precious Achuiwa, Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Tyrese Maxey, Isaac Okoro, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, Patrick Williams, James Wiseman — all of whom will now be restricted free agents next season.
Recommended Reading:
1. Alex Sarr is the NBA Draft name to know: "What has really launched Sarr into the No. 1 pick conversation, however, is his offense. He provides a strong baseline there as well. His athleticism and touch should translate to an elite vertical threat, but it's the perimeter flashes that have scouts circling his games on the schedule. Sarr will grab and go in transition, face up from the elbow for coordinated drives to the cup, or even hit the occasional spot-up 3. If he can develop into a legitimate offensive hub, Sarr's two-way impact will be difficult to ignore in the No. 1 spot." 5 strongest No. 1 pick candidates in 2024 NBA Draft class entering season.
2. Got it, Got it, Need it, Got it: "He's less the reigning assists leader and more a proxy for the friend who refuses to acknowledge that they're repeatedly falling into the same troubling patterns after a complicated breakup that happened years ago. But, objectively, Harden would be the best facilitator the Clippers have had since Chris Paul." Is James Harden Worth the Squeeze for the Clippers?
3. Consensus building is the key to NBA MVP: "You'll notice that the last major "close" race, at least by first-place voting tallies, was Steve Nash (65 first-place votes out of 127) vs. Shaq (58) in 2005. (That weird sub-zero dip in 1990 is due to Magic Johnson beating Charles Barkley for MVP despite garnering fewer first-place votes.) Since then, it's been an unbroken stream of massive blowouts. In the last 15 years, the closest margin of first-place votes was when Jokic received "just" 65 out of 100 first-place votes compared to Joel Embiid's 26 in 2022." Why MVP races have become victory laps instead of actual competitions
4. Are you not entertained, LeBron edition: "Speaking of LeBron, I know how sappy this sounds, but I am so grateful for every chance I get to watch him before he retires. And in the process, it's been a treat to see how his game has evolved to mask his ever-reducing athleticism. He's already established himself as one of the best basketball players to ever live; everything that comes after is a nice little bonus. And on a personal note, it's always nice to see a fellow Akronian thrive."50 reasons to be excited about the 2023-24 NBA season.
