What goes on beyond the fourth down of a drive?
Games are often won before kickoff with well-devised game plans. When a drive fails, those best-laid plans are hastily revised in an attempt to fix mistakes and crack the opponent's code before it's too late. In football, there are no do-overs — its a punishing and relentless fight for every inch of turf. Teams either pick up the first down in their four allotted downs, or they don't.
Before the technological advances of modern football, a few fifth downs did manage to slip through the cracks: a 1940 incident that disrupted Cornell's 18-0 win streak, and a 1990 debacle that cast doubt on Colorado's 1990 national championship title.
If these fifth downs shaped parts of college football history, how would an extra down shape the NFL? Would Tom Brady have won — or lost — more Super Bowls with them? At the very least, he probably would have liked to have one against the Chicago Bears in Week 5 of the 2021 season, when a slew of penalties caused confusion on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' final drive. A win there could have helped Tampa Bay clinch the top seed in the NFC. Maybe Brady would have won another if he'd gotten that fifth down.
Teams will never get that fifth down they often need, but imagining what they could do with it is often the origin of any NFL debate. What if? What could have been? It's something that's currently haunting the New York Jets. In their case, they imagine what lies beyond a fourth snap, rather than a fifth down. Maybe, once again, it could have been a Super Bowl.
Everyone who observes the game, from fans to journalists to coaches, contemplates what could be. That hope drives innovation on the field, and it drives fans to fill stadiums every season. That hope is the beauty of The Fifth Down.
In this column, I'll tackle what happens week to week through the lens of how schemes and opportunities shape the game, and it's usually not going to be as seen on the broadcast. For example, television analysts have been positively giddy about the exciting highlights of young, mobile quarterbacks, but a closer assessment reveals that the style of play comes with flaws that few seem eager to discuss. Or, perhaps what should be more discussed is how prolific Kyle Shanahan's coaching is to compensate for what should be an insurmountable loss: the fateful draft trade to acquire Trey Lance.
Ultimately, we'll wrap things up each week with power rankings that are driven by an analysis of team performance. Some of the variables that factor into a team's grade include points scored, points allowed, weather, strength of opponent, travel distance, bye weeks, rest, injuries to key players and chemistry. Most importantly, we'll include an often-ignored factor: momentum.
Consider the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers, who went 12-5 in the regular season and were favored to win their Wild Card playoff matchup against the Cleveland Browns by five points. The Steelers started that season with an 11-0 record, but then sputtered and went 1-4 over their last four games. While a 12-5 record may justify being favored, the 1-4 finish paints a grim picture. The same thing happened with the 2020 Patriots, who began the season with an 8-0 record before losing four of their last eight games. The Patriots were favored to win their Wild Card playoff game by 4.5 points. Both the Steelers and Patriots lost their respective playoff games.
Factoring in momentum and performance trajectory provides a more accurate depiction of a team's current standing. The power rankings will list teams based on their grades. Team grades will range from 0 to 100, with an additional 20 points available for momentum after a three-plus game winning streak.
Welcome to The Fifth Down, a place to ponder what football could be.
Dawn of a new era for NFL quarterbacks
In many ways, the 2023 NFL season will be like any other season in recent memory.
All teams function within the same general constructs that have governed professional football for more than a century — they play on a 100-yard field, accompanied by 21 other players, trying to gain ten yards in four downs.
But for the first time in decades, this season is different. This season, the league is led by a new generation of quarterbacks.
On the field, every player plays a pivotal role in the team's chance of success. The talent gap between players is marginal, and the margin for error is even slimmer. The success of each play depends on every player executing their assignment. The probability of winning a game shrinks every time an offensive lineman misses a block, a cornerback blows a coverage, or a running back fumbles the ball. Like synchronized swimmers, all eleven players must work in harmony for the team's success.
Yet, the most important position in the modern NFL — perhaps in all professional sports — is the quarterback.
At the culmination of the 2015 NFL season, eight franchises were led by starting quarterbacks that had a combined 14 Super Bowl championships. Four of those eight quarterbacks had at least two championships.
Now, only three starting quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl, and only one of those three has won more than once.
Starting quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings, 2015 vs. 2023.
Post-2015:
1. Brady x4
2. Roethlisberger x2
3. Peyton Manning x2
4. Eli Manning x2
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Drew Brees
7. Russell Wilson
8. Joe Flacco
2023:
1. Mahomes x2
2. Russell Wilson
3. Matthew Stafford
4. Aaron Rodgers
Hundreds of NFL players have come and gone in that eight-year span, but it is this changing of the guard that puts the league on the precipice of a new era.
Gone are the days of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. In the place of those stoic passers, a new breed of dynamic quarterbacks is redefining the meaning of entertaining football. In the modern era of the game, offenses put a premium on agile quarterbacks who operate with their legs as much as their arms.
Their approaches, however, can be a gulf apart, with each quarterback sporting stylistic differences and their own distinctive artistry. There are pocket passers and improvisers. Field generals and gunslingers. Some quarterbacks counter defensive pressure by launching the ball quickly. Others scramble, extending plays to create lanes from which they can overwhelm defenses with versatility.
The improvisational aptitude of dual-threat quarterbacks means opponents don't know whether they will run or pass — only that the quarterback can produce special outcomes with both.
The new era of quarterbacks is led by dynamic superstars like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. As a whole, these quarterbacks are off to a bumpy start in 2023.
So why are athletic passers struggling when less nimble quarterbacks have succeeded?
Employing a dual-threat quarterback can be a double-edged sword. Although passing trends influence the position, the fundamentals of quarterbacking remain the same: winning football is played from within the pocket. Success at the position starts with the mind, then extends to the arm, and then extends to the legs.
From the time an NFL quarterback leaves the huddle and gets to the line of scrimmage, he makes a mental note of every position, movement and possible outcome that lies before him. Young believes that athletically gifted quarterbacks struggle with learning to process all of that information because they tend to rely on their athleticism to make plays at the high school and college level. When they can easily scramble for a first down, they don't find it necessary to work on mastering the game from the pocket.
At the professional level, where defensive linemen are just as athletic as the quarterback, raw athleticism isn't enough to succeed. It's not enough for a position that is tasked with orchestrating the flow of the offense — a quarterback is supposed to be a master of data, memorizing formations, blitzes and coverages. A quarterback must master everything.
So when the quarterback flees the pocket, he abandons the play design. At that point, success becomes dependent on randomness rather than consistency. When the quarterback leaves the center position, pass rushers can peel off of blocks to chase him down. Receivers have to cut off their routes and run in a disorderly fashion to make themselves viable targets. There is nothing left of the well-crafted play design that was practiced all week and called in the huddle. Quarterbacks should use their athleticism if the play breaks down rather than causing the play to break down by relying on their athleticism.
"When you get to the league, what it comes down to is executing the game plan, executing the plays," NFL Films producer and analyst Greg Cosell said. "Coaches call plays, they put together a game plan, and they want all that executed. So, while we all can love traits, when it's all said and done, they want the plays executed."
Scrambling quarterbacks can win games, and they can even make a career of it - but a quarterback's legs will only carry him so far.
"You can't make enough plays to win championships just running around," Young said.
It's a lesson that Young learned the hard way. Although he had success early in his career, Young was never a championship-caliber quarterback before he arrived in San Francisco and began to learn from legendary head coach Bill Walsh. Young would scramble around, throw a nice completion, or run for fifteen yards. To Young, that represented a good play: he picked up the first down, moving the ball down the field. But Walsh would tell him that he wasn't making the most out of the play call.
He left the pocket early before exploring every play option. His offensive linemen and receivers didn't know where he was. There is a timing to blocking and route-running, and teammates expect their quarterback to be where he's supposed to be. The fifteen-yard run could have been a thirty-yard pass, or even a touchdown. And, with age, those fifteen-yard scampers began to hurt more and more.
Walsh always stressed that the goal of playing quarterback is to play it the right way on every snap, and playing the right way means executing the schematic design of the play from the pocket.
Eventually, Young learned that he needed to do everything that he was expected to do with the play call — both by his coaching staff and his teammates. When Young learned to exhaust all options from the pocket, he led San Francisco to a Super Bowl title and secured his place in the Hall of Fame.
"I think there will always be a place always a place for a quarterback that can sit in the pocket and dissect defenses," Darius Butler said. "I think some of these guys that can beat you with their legs have the ability to win Super Bowls, but at the end of the day, most games come down to the two-minute drill. There's a lot of dissecting that goes into two minute. Coaches put their game plan in, but quarterbacks have to take that offense by the horns and get it done. So I think you've got to be able to do that, you've got to be able to dissect and get the ball to your playmakers and make pinpoint throws."
Any dual-threat quarterback already has an advantage because they can always leave the pocket and run for yardage.
"But are they the master of the main event, which is the job?" Young posed in an interview with The Chronicle. "The job is to deliver the ball from the pocket. It's been proven to me over and over again that that's the championship job."
Somewhere along the road, the 49ers seem to have forgotten the wise words of their Hall of Fame quarterback.
The most fortunate NFL franchises are blessed with the halcyon days of luminaries like Tom Brady or Joe Montana, the kind of transcendent talents every team hopes to find once in a lifetime.
The San Francisco 49ers were once one of those teams. They struck gold with Joe Montana, and again with Steve Young. Since then, though, they've embarked on an inexplicable chase for an athletic quarterback and come up empty. Over and over, they've made the same mistake: they've become enamored with physical potential and athleticism.
In 2000, a quarterback named Tom Brady, who grew up as a 49ers fan, attended a team combine that the 49ers held for local quarterback prospects. San Francisco ignored him—they were looking for a dynamic athlete, and Brady was far from fitting that mold. The 49ers drafted Giovanni Carmazzi in the third round, while Brady fell to the Patriots in the sixth round.
But what Carmazzi lacked was what Brady had in spades: confidence and experience honing the mental fundamentals. Steve Mariucci, then head coach of the 49ers, noticed that the brights seemed a little too bright for Carmazzi in his first preseason game. There was some poetic justice that night as well, as Tom Brady, the opposing quarterback, had a solid outing against Mariucci's 49ers. Like most rookies, Carmazzi was easily rattled, unable to make plays with his arms and legs because he struggled to process the field. For all his mobility, Carmazzi was stuck — and the 49ers were stuck with him.
Brady wasn't the only future Hall of Fame quarterback scorned by the 49ers. In 2005, the 49ers passed on another hometown quarterback with dreams of playing for San Francisco: Aaron Rodgers. For years, a revolving door of offensive coordinators stunted the development of quarterback Alex Smith. In 2011, Smith started to hit his stride. He led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and an admirable postseason performance. In 2012, Smith led the team to a 6-2 record before missing some time with an injury. When he was healthy, it was too late: the 49ers had been dazzled by the athleticism of Colin Kaepernick, and they shipped Alex Smith off to the Kansas City Chiefs. Alex Smith went on to have similar success in Kansas City while Kaepernick struggled following the 2012 season.
By now, the franchise should have learned its lesson. After all, it was Bill Walsh who helped Steve Young learn that championship football is played from the pocket.
But in 2021, the 49ers ignored the wisdom of their old Hall of Fame head coach. Instead, they acquired the third overall pick from the Dolphins in exchange for the 12th overall pick, first- and third-rounders in 2022 and a first-rounder in 2023.
With the third overall selection in the 2021 draft, the 49ers selected Trey Lance.
To say that Lance lacked any real football experience would be an understatement. He only attempted 99 passes in high school. In college, where he had only one true season as a starter, he amassed a mere 318 pass attempts. For context, Brady had 733 pass attempts in the 2022 regular season alone. Patrick Mahomes had 648 pass attempts.
First, consider just how poorly that gamble went.
Going back to at least 1985, when a team has drafted a minimum of two first-round draft picks to acquire a quarterback, none of them started fewer games for that team than Trey Lance (4 starts). Within the common draft era, Lance's 8 appearances with the 49ers are the fewest that any player, quarterback or otherwise, has made for the team that debuted him.
Then, consider what happened to the slew of draft picks the 49ers shipped away to acquire Lance.
The Dolphins packaged the 2021 first-round pick in a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for the No. 6 overall pick, where they selected wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. The Eagles, meanwhile, packaged that draft pick in another trade, sending it to the Dallas Cowboys in order to move up two spots in the draft. With the 10th overall pick, the Eagles selected wide receiver DeVonta Smith. The Cowboys then used the 12th overall draft pick to select linebacker Micah Parsons.
That's just the first of three first-round draft picks that the 49ers surrendered for Trey Lance.
The Dolphins would go on to use the future 2022 first-rounder (No. 29 overall) in a trade package for Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Then, they used the 2023 first-rounder (No. 29 overall) to acquire pass rusher Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos used that first-rounder to acquire head coach Sean Payton from the Saints, and — as one final indignity — the Saints used the draft pick to select Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee this April.
Here's how it all shakes out:
• 49ers: Trey Lance
• Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb
• Cowboys: Micah Parsons
• Eagles: Devonta Smith
• Broncos: Sean Payton
• Saints: Bryan Bresee
If nothing else, there is a valuable lesson to be learned here about not placing all your eggs in one basket.
It's a lesson that is often learned the hard way. The Minnesota Vikings learned it in the infamous Herschel Walker trade that kickstarted the Cowboys dynasty, and the New Orleans Saints learned it when they gambled away their future for Ricky Williams.
Not all high-investment players have performed poorly, but there is still a philosophical debate to be had about the costs and benefits. Even though drafting Julio Jones cost the Atlanta Falcons five first-round draft picks, Jones was a major factor in the Falcons' historic 2016 season that led to a high-scoring Super Bowl. Still, a lack of defensive depth is what felled the mighty Falcons in that game, and had the Falcons retained those five first-rounders, they likely would have had a more balanced team that could have staved off a Patriots victory.
The Trey Lance trade reshaped the NFL landscape, and while it uplifted several teams around the league, it didn't ruin the 49ers the way it probably should have. Fortunately, there was some forethought when the team drafted Brock Purdy, who experienced the kind of unprecedented ascension a young Brady once did in New England. Under the stewardship of Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers continue to have one of the NFL's most dynamic offenses, one that was bolstered in 2022 with another major trade: this time, for running back Christian McCaffrey.
With a new era of quarterbacks comes a new era of coaching, and Shanahan is leading the pack as he demonstrates how to consistently craft a championship-contending team — even if top brass pressures him to train an inevitable draft bust. The only thing saving the 49ers from the pitfalls of pursuing the ever-alluring mobile quarterback is a team that is coached to its strengths — but that's a topic for a different day.
With an estimated $13 million cap deficit looming ahead in 2024 — and that's without a Nick Bosa re-signing — 2023 could be San Francisco's last chance to bring diamond rings to the gold city, at least for some time. Luckily for the Niners, they've struck enough gold to build their contemporary team, even if they grabbed a quarterback prodigy made of pyrite.
NFL Power Rankings: Week 3
Week 2 is a chance for NFL teams to prove what was a fluke and what was foreshadowing in Week 1, and for the most part, teams strengthened their cases over the weekend. For the Dallas Cowboys, they proved they owned New York with a 70-10 total score against the New York Giants and New York Jets so far. The Giants, who were projected to enjoy an 8-9 season, indicate that last year's playoff berth was a one-off that probably can't be replicated this year.
Of the eight 0-2 teams in the NFL, there's only a 3-9 percent chance that any of them will make the playoffs. The odds get even slimmer with continued losses in Week 3, as less than 3 percent of teams that start 0-3 make the playoffs. And for the record, only one 0-4 team has ever seen the glimmering hope of the postseason.
One of those 0-2 teams, the Minnesota Vikings, saw a messy night of football in their Thursday Night Football match against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings had four turnovers that night, which made the difference in the 34-28 loss. It also made a difference that Vikings offensive tackle Oli Udoh suffered a quad injury that effectively ended his season.
Turnovers are usually a result of poor coaching, and early in the year, injuries are usually a result of poor conditioning. In this case, the Vikings are plagued by inefficient coaching and conditioning, but it's not their fault, and they're not the only ones. It's a league-wide trend, and it's a result of CBA rules that have shortened the preseason and reduced the number of padded practices from 28 to 16. The lack of conditioning means more penalties, more soft-tissue injuries and more turnovers. Expect more season-ending injuries and gut-wrenching losses in Week 3, because it's going to take some time for teams to compensate for the conditioning and preparation they should have had earlier this year.
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
The 49ers secured their ninth consecutive win against the Los Angeles Rams in the regular season. They didn't look as dominant as they did in Week 1, but the Shanahan-McVay battles are never going to be lopsided. Brock Purdy is reminding the 49ers what truly matters at the quarterback position, and the defense is reminiscent of a time when Patrick Willis was patrolling the field.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
The Cowboys have now won two games in dominating fashion. Micah Parsons is living up to the hype, Dak Prescott is taking care of the football, CeeDee Lamb is developing into an All-Pro caliber receiver, and the offense is performing efficiently. But can Dallas dominate in the same fashion when they face a competitive opponent?
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
The Bills used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) at the lowest rate of any team last season, per Next Gen Stats. They should be able to mix it up more this season with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid joining veteran Dawson Knox. Using more 12 personnel should help the Bills be more productive on the ground with James Cook and free agent acquisition Damien Harris, while also keeping defenses on their toes with play action passes and seam routes to the tight ends.
All of that will only help if Josh Allen stops playing hero ball. Excuses for the turnovers will only last so long, and lack of a solid supporting cast doesn't justify handing the ball to the opponent. The Bills bounced back well, but the Week 1 loss to a wounded Jets team still stings, especially in a division where the Dolphins are now 2-0.
Regardless, the return of cornerback Tre'Davious White and a healthy tandem at the safety position should be enough to lead the Bills to their fourth straight AFC East title
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
The Chiefs will return to the playoffs, but how much farther will they get? Travis Kelce and Chris Jones finally made their 2023 debuts, and both played significant roles in Kansas City outlasting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kelce scored a touchdown and Jones came up with pivotal sacks in big moments. Still, the team collectively did little to inspire optimism. Andy Reid will need to get creative to get this offense humming again — expect that to happen, even if it takes a few weeks.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Was last year just a magical season for the Eagles, or is Jalen Hurts a superstar? The offense isn't as efficient and lethal as it was in 2022, and they're off to a sluggish start. Facing defenses led by Bill Belichick and Brian Flores can make offenses look sluggish though, so there's still plenty of time to start firing on all cylinders. Either way, the Eagles are still 2-0 and full of potential.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Gone are the days that Baltimore's defense patrolled the field with fearsome, instinctive players like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Now, the Ravens have to develop a new culture and identity, which all starts with their $260 million quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Head coach John Harbaugh, now in his 16th year coaching the Ravens, has done a brilliant job of surrounding Jackson with offensive pieces that fit his style.
Now, questions linger on the defensive side of the ball. Once again, the Ravens have been ravaged by injury, but so has the rest of the division.
With the AFC North a lot weaker than expected, John Harbaugh's bunch might already be headed toward a division title. Baltimore's not only 2-0, but 2-0 in the AFC, with a two-game edge over Cincinnati, the division favorite.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
The Dolphins improved to 2-0 after their Sunday night win, and Tua Tagovailoa improved to 5-0 against the Patriots in his career.
The Dolphins have impressed with their coast-to-coast road wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. Even better, in a highly competitive AFC, Miami is now the only team with just six road games remaining. This team has a chance to make a run for the division title if Tua Tagovailoa can remain healthy.
But not everything is sunshine and clear skies in Miami just yet. There are still some lingering concerns. The offense still needs to prove that it can be as consistent as it is explosive, and the defense will need to tighten up as well. Jalen Ramsey's knee injury is a huge loss for the Dolphins, as he's expected to be out until December. There are mental errors to clean up as well — especially the fumbled snaps.
Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Losing two upper-tier safeties in the offseason is never an easy thing for a defense to overcome. Starting the season 0-2 is even tougher to overcome. Cincinnati did it last year, and they'll have to do it again this year.
Joe Burrow's Bengals have started their seasons slow and finished them strong, and they've struggled against division rival Cleveland Browns for years. It may be a little early to panic, but the Bengals need to show more urgency if they want to compete for a division title and home-field advantage in a congested division and conference. Most concerning is Burrow's lingering calf injury, which he may have rushed back from too soon.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
The offensive success in the latter stretch of last season came when the zone-gap runs and play-action passes were working efficiently. Jared Goff paced the league with 17 play-action touchdown passes, per Next Gen Stats. With a rebuilt backfield, the Lions will have some growing pains. This defense also needs to figure out how to hold Geno Smith under 40 points. This division is looking like it'll be a tight race between the Lions, Vikings and Packers.
Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Jacksonville's offensive line needs to withstand two more weeks without Cam Robinson, their suspended offensive tackle. Trevor Lawrence performs well when the play-action game is working. If the offensive line can hold up its end of the bargain, this offense can carry the team and control the pace.
It doesn't hurt that the Jaguars also play in the worst division in football. If they can manage to stop Derrick Henry, they may be the safest bet to win their division in the entire league. Ultimately, their season may come down to doing something they haven't done in over a decade: beating the Chiefs. The Jaguars last win against Kansas City came on November 8, 2009. They are 0-8 against the Chiefs since then.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
The Chargers are the NFL's soft-core version of the Jets — a team that will fill its fans with optimism, only to inevitably let them down. In the Chargers' case, it doesn't matter how talented the team is — they could have the top ranked offense and defense in the NFL and still miss the playoffs, or they could have a MVP running back shatter the touchdown record and still fall flat in their first playoff game. You can come up with endless reasons for why this team should be great, but they will find a way to prove you wrong. An 0-2 start in the AFC West does not look good for the Chargers postseason chances.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Last week, Seattle looked poised to take a step backwards after getting blown out by a Los Angeles Rams team comprised of cast-offs. This week, the Seahawks delivered an upset win without both starting offensive tackles and losing cornerback Tariq Woolen to a chest injury.
Last year's meeting between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions produced the highest-scoring game of the decade thus far: a 48-45 victory for Seattle. Their Week 2 matchup produced many of the same fireworks in a thrilling 37-31 overtime win for Seattle.
Geno Smith stunned the football world last season, winning Comeback Player of the Year and leading the league in deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards). This was Geno Smith's 20th start in Seattle since taking over for Russell Wilson.
Wilson's last 20 games in Seattle:
11 wins, 64.9% completion rate, 4,339 yards, 35 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 99.8 rating.
Smith's first 20 games in Seattle:
10 wins, 70% completion rate, 4,722 yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 101.1 rating.
Seattle is building an impressive roster of young players that have a chance to develop into something special. Running back Kenneth Walker and rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba should help diversify the offensive attack.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
The Vikings had another sloppy effort in a 34-28 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. They had four costly fumbles, including Justin Jefferson losing the ball out of bounds in the end zone. That followed up a mistake-filled 20-17 loss at home to Tampa Bay in Week 1. The good news? The Minnesota secondary was inconsistent last season, but should be improved under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9
Jordan Love will have his ups-and-downs, but it seems like the Packers will be just fine in their new era. Despite the loss, Love threw for three touchdowns for the second straight week. The Packers played the second half without receiver Christian Watson, running back Aaron Jones, left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elgton Jenkins. Surely that played a part in the Packers first loss with a double-digit fourth-quarter lead since the 2014 NFC Championship Game.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
There was a ton of upside on this team, and they showed it against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns have the AFC South on the docket this year, which means four games against the worst division in the league. They also have games against the Bears, Broncos, and the suddenly-fangless Jets.
The downside? The team suffered the heartbreaking loss of Nick Chubb. With a ground-and-pound offense and fearsome pass rush, the Browns were built to withstand the poor weather of playoff football. Now, their season seems lost.
The Browns haven't won a game in Pittsburgh since 2003 and they haven't started a season 2-0 since 1993, when Bill Belichick was their head coach.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Producing and preventing big plays were sources of success last season in New Orleans, per NGS. Dennis Allen's squad leveraged WR Chris Olave on offense (his 5.4 receptions over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards ranked eighth-best in the NFL) and allowed the third-lowest completion percentage on these same downfield passes. With Derek Carr joining the party, the Saints should be able to win the NFC South.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Jalen Ramsey and Bobby Wagner are gone. Cooper Kupp has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Rams pieced together a training camp roster that was full of undrafted rookies and unknown players. Still, the Rams have come out swinging. Sean McVay isn't willing to settle for a rebuild, and he's proving it by making players like receiver Puka Nacua a household name. Nacua, a fifth-round pick from BYU, became the first rookie with 10-plus receptions and 100-plus receiving yards in each of his team's first two games. His 25 catches are the most by a rookie through two games in NFL history.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Early mistakes and slow starts have plagued the Patriots. The defense has done its job, the offense looks improved under new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and Mac Jones is displaying the ability to make great throws. None of that will matter if the offensive line can't open holes or hold off pressure. The Patriots have a grueling schedule through their first four games, but they should be able to start figuring things out after that.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
The Steelers have won their last 21 home games on Monday Night Football. T.J. Watt is making his case for the best defensive player in football. Watt now holds the record for sacks in franchise history, which is quite an accomplishment considering Pittsburgh's storied history. The only problem is that Kenny Pickett can't seem to move the offense down the field.
Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
The Jets are the NFL's tragedy — or dark comedy, depending on your perspective. The signing of Aaron Rodgers brought talks of Super Bowls to New York, but tortured fans still approached this season with trepidation. Then, just when it all seemed real and optimism started to sink in, Aaron Rodgers went down. Against Dallas, Zach Wilson completed 12 of 27 passes for 170 yards and three interceptions. 68 yards of those yards came on a slant that Garrett Wilson turned into a touchdown. It's clear Wilson isn't ready to lead any professional football team. He may not even be someone you'd be comfortable having as a backup quarterback.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Atlanta's offense makes no attempts to hide their mission of controlling the clock. Head coach Arthur Smith has designed a strong ground game, led by a strong offensive line and a cavalcade of promising running backs. They've also acquired young talent with loads of potential, including names such as Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
The Sean Payton era in Denver began with his signature onside kick — except this time, it didn't work. An upset loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was a rough start, but the Broncos offense showed signs of life in Week 2. The Broncos' schedule has the potential to be pretty punishing, featuring a five-game stretch that includes the Chiefs twice and the Bills. Early-down success will be key for Denver to remain on-schedule and sustain drives on offense. On defense, Patrick Surtain is proving to be one of the premier cornerbacks.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Mike Evans, the most underrated receiver in the league, continues to produce regardless of whether he has a Hall of Famer or a journeyman at quarterback. He has nine consecutive 1000-yard seasons to start his career, the most in NFL history. After two games, he's almost a quarter of the way to making it ten straight seasons of dominance. Evans already has 12 catches for 237 yards and two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has only taken one sack so far, despite facing a lot of pressure. That's quite an improvement from the 79 sacks he took in his last 26 games.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
For Tennessee, both lines will determine how this season goes. If it all comes together as planned — and DeAndre Hopkins manages to stay healthy — then the Titans could steal a playoff berth from the Jaguars.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Eric Bieniemy has admitted to coaching the Commanders hard. Maybe this team needs a play-caller that operates that way, as Washington has now gone two weeks without a loss — or a scandal.
Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
While the pass rush projects to improve, solving challenges on the back end, especially against the Buffalo Bills, would go a long way toward building momentum for the rest of the season.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Rookie QB Anthony Richardson had an impressive outing, all things considered, but he's still very raw. While he'll be able to make a lot of plays on the ground, Richardson needs to develop as a passer. He needs to learn how to protect himself on running plays if he wants to survive the grueling season.
Week 2 marked the first time that two quarterbacks younger than 22 years old went head-to-head since Marcus Mariota faced Jameis Winston in 2015. The Colts have a chance to win a few games this season due to their weak division, and this is was one of those games.
Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11
Expectations were high for the Giants after their impressive 2022 campaign, especially with the offseason addition of big names like tight end Darren Waller. I thought I may have been too pessimistic about the Giants. Now, six wins feels like I may have been too optimistic.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
The NFC South is a division in decline, which opens up possibilities for every team to make a run for the postseason. The Panthers' defense should help keep the team afloat as Bryce Young as gets acclimated to the NFL, but rookie quarterbacks rarely lead their teams to the playoffs. Unlike the Patriots and 49ers, who made postseason appearances with rookies Mac Jones and Brock Purdy, the Panthers don't have the structure around Young to buck that trend. The future may be bright, but the present reality is one of irrelevancy.
Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
The acquisition of D.J. Moore stirred optimism amongst Bears fans, but a great receiver can only do so much when his quarterback struggles with the forward pass. While Chicago fans will point to a porous offensive line and a dismal roster, some responsibility must fall on Justin Fields as well. Fields frequently holds onto the ball far too long, causing many of his own pressures and sacks. When he does throw the ball, it is far too often a poor decision. Expect it to only get uglier — the Bears face the Chiefs in Week 3.
At this point, everyone should have seen this coming. Perhaps the Bears would have been better off cutting ties with Justin Fields and hedging their bets on a rookie quarterback.
Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13
New head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly the 49ers defensive coordinator and third overall pick Will Anderson Jr. should help shore up the defense, but fans will be need to be patient. This team has a long way to go, and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will need time to get acclimated to the NFL.
Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14
I expect the Cardinals to be vying for the services of USC's Caleb Williams in 2024. It's unlikely that Kyler Murray is leading the Cardinals offense after this season, and Arizona seems to be preparing for that reality. The Cardinals moved down in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft to stockpile ammunition for next year's promising draft class.
With a first-year head coach and an uninspiring quarterback situation, even the most optimistic onlooker has to expect a turbulent season and protracted rebuild on the horizon. The Cardinals did nothing to refute those beliefs in their first two games. After being amongst the league leaders in penalties for the past several seasons, the Cardinals had more penalty yards (122) than passing yards (114) against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. Arizona followed up that performance with a second half collapse against the struggling Giants.
