Plenty of college football upsets were in order a week ago, some that we saw coming, and some we definitely didn't. We picked Iowa to go down against Minnesota, as was the case with the Utah Utes getting one over on USC. But virtually no one saw then-No. 10 North Carolina getting upset by one-win Virginia, nor No. 5 Washington nearly going down at the hands of Arizona State.
Such is the time of year in the college football season, though. When you get into the thralls of conference play and two months into the year, strange things start to happen in trap spots, in marquee matchups, in so on -- it's a breeding ground for upsets.
Overall, the college football Week 9 slate isn't all that rich. There are only two ranked-on-ranked matchups and an inordinate amount of other ranked teams have this week open. But that doesn't mean the upsets have to subside.
So where then are the Red Flags waving as we look ahead to Saturday? These are our college football upset picks for Week 9 of the 2023 season.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 12-28
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Tennessee Volunteers
Opponent: at Kentucky | Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: TENN -4.0
Josh Heupel's Tennessee Volunteers had an upset in mind last week on the Third Saturday in October. After one half too, the Vols had rival Alabama on the ropes as they held a 20-7 lead going into halftime. Of course, hopes of an upset quickly dissipated in the second half as the Crimson Tide reeled off 27 unanswered points, blanked Tennessee, and ran away for a two-score win.
After that heartbreak, the Vols now go on the road to face an SEC East foe in the Kentucky Wildcats. And really, when you start to dig into the numbers, these are two teams where the offenses have struggled to get off of the ground, particularly in the passing game, this season.
Both the Joe Milton and Devin Leary-led units rank in the bottom half of college football in EPA per dropback this season, but the rushing attacks rank inside the Top 20 of the same metric. Meanwhile, the defenses, shockingly, might be the best units on the field for this game -- and both run defenses are more effective against the run than the pass.
Despite what public perception might be about both teams, this might be a rockfight in Lexington on Saturday. The outcome of the game could very well hinge on one or two explosive plays or turnovers. Do you trust Milton more than Leary to not be the mistake-maker or to be the playmaker? I don't trust either, meaning this is a coin-flip.
So with the Vols on the road, there is a very real chance that we get an SEC upset in primetime.
4. Oregon State Beavers
Opponent: at Arizona | Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: ORST -3.5
If you asked the average, casual college football fan to name the No. 11-ranked team in the country, how long do you think it would take such a person before they got to the actual answer: the Oregon State Beavers? Probably a while, right?
But here we are, and now Jonathan Smith's team takes a late-night trip in Week 9 to face one of the sneakily hottest teams in the sport, the Arizona Wildcats. Jedd Fisch's group, particularly since Noah Fifita was thrust into action at quarterback, has been causing all kinds of chaos lately, putting a scare into Washington and USC in back-to-back weeks before blowing out Washington State, 44-6.
The sneaky truth about Oregon State, however, is that this isn't the same team top-to-bottom that we saw a year ago. That's most notable on the defensive side of the ball, where they've been one of the worst-tackling units in the country while also simply getting into shootouts way too frequently.
That's a terrible recipe against Arizona in its current form. The Wildcats defense measures out better in terms of Success Rate this season, but more importantly, they also have the more potent, efficient and balanced offense in this matchup.
For me, this game could play out much like the Beavers' one loss on the season (at Wazzu) did. The Cougars jumped out to a big lead as Oregon State couldn't find any stops, then the defense couldn't come up with enough answers as D.J. Uiagalelei tried to mount a comeback.
Arizona is fully capable of writing that script in Tucson on Saturday night, and I might even go as far as to say that's what I expect to play out.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
Opponent: at Kansas | Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: OU -10.0
Coming out of the bye week, which came after a monumental Red River win over rival Texas, the Oklahoma Sooners almost erased all of their good work as John Rhys Plumlee and UCF put a scare into Brent Venables' team in Norman. Ultimately, OU stopped a game-tying two-point conversion attempt to pick up the 31-29 win, but it goes to show that Oklahoma is far from infallible.
So it's interesting to see the schedule with the Sooners going on the road to Lawrence this week for a date with Kansas. Yes, the Jayhawks have gotten to 5-2 this season by beating the worst teams on their schedule (including UCF when Plumlee was sidelined) and then falling at Oklahoma State after getting blown out on the road at Texas.
At the same time, though, we don't know what the status of Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is, which matters a great deal. That could hurt the Jayhawks in this game as Jason Bean is a great, high-end backup, but doesn't offer the same level of juice to get this offense cooking.
But it can still cook. We've seen that well-schemed offenses (RE: UCF) can cause Oklahoma's defense some issues and Kansas should provide that. Contrarily, the Jayhawks defense should also concede plenty to the Sooners.
With this game in Lawrence and, most importantly, with it being the week before Bedlam against a surging Oklahoma State team for the Sooners, OU could find itself looking past Kansas. If they do that, they can unequivocally get knocked off in this spot, especially with the lack of focus they showed just last week.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponent: Florida (Neutral Site) | Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: UGA -14.5
Let's just be abundantly clear about this, I think that the Georgia Bulldogs are going to dominate the rival Florida Gators on Saturday in Jacksonville for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
On every level, Georgia is the superior team. They have a more efficient and more explosive offense and a defense that has also been more effective limiting explosive plays and being efficient on a down-to-down, drive-to-drive basis, even if that unit for the Bulldogs isn't perfect. Moreover, with Kirby Smart getting the bye last week to prepare for this game, it could be bad news for Billy Napier's team.
And yet, you simply have to put the Dawgs on upset alert. When a team comes into its first game without its best player, a rivalry game where things have gone sideways in both directions historically no less, you have to consider an upset as a possibility.
Brock Bowers is two weeks removed from the ankle injury that required tightrope surgery. The Georgia tight end is legitimately one of the best playmakers in college football. Losing him is not good for the offense just simply based on his role and ability.
At the same time, Georgia could benefit from having to trust quarterback Carson Beck more and utilize other talented weapons within the offense. A shift in approach may not be a bad thing for the Bulldogs. But again, this is the first game since the injury -- is it a certainty those changes, if they happen, transpire immediately? No, and against a solid Florida defensive front, that could be a problem for UGA.
Again, I'm picking Georgia to win handily in this game and probably cover -14.5. However, I can't ignore the possibility laid out above, which is why the Dawgs get put on upset alert this week.
1. Oregon Ducks
Opponent: at 13 Utah | Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ORE -6.5
On the heels of the loss to Washington, Oregon got off to a slow start last week at home against Washington State before finding its footing and pulling away. The tests don't stop in the Pac-12, though, and now the Ducks have to go on the road to the toughest environment in the conference, Rice-Eccles Stadium, to face the No. 13 Utah Utes.
That, in itself, could be a tough ask for Dan Lanning's team and Bo Nix, who has been substantially worse on the road in his college career than at home, both in Eugene and at Auburn. But the numbers also express how this could be a tough matchup in any environement for Oregon.
For as prolific as the Ducks offense has been this season, the level of competition can't be overlooked. This unit hasn't been up against a defense that ranks inside the Top 40 in EPA allowed this season. Utah, on the other hand, ranks second in the country in that capacity.
This will be, bar none, the toughest test that Oregon will face this season. Frankly, it remains to be seen just how good this vaunted rushing attack, praised offensive line, and Nix's passing attack are when they are up against a truly formidable opponent. That's raised tenfold when you consider Rice-Eccles as well, which only raises the level of difficulty.
The one thing that could work in the Ducks' favor is that the Utah offense is anything but dynamic due to inuries and the now-confirmed season-long absence of Cam Rising. Even still, the unknown of how Oregon's offense will fair in this situation leads me to think that they could be in danger of getting upset and being handed their second loss of the 2023 campaign.
