When you look at the Week 3 college football slate, it's easy to quickly start eyeing next week when there seems to be nothing but Top 25 matchups on the schedule. But that's when the craziness always happens. That's when we see the patented college football upsets that make the sport so great go down -- when everyone is lulled to sleep by a seemingly innocuous schedule of games.
And to be sure, the Week 3 college football schedule doesn't move the needle on paper. No ranked team plays another ranked team this week. There are big-name programs playing on the road, but in most cases, not in spots where they should be in real danger. Frankly, there is the making of a lot of blowouts on this slate.
That, however, won't be the case for the college football teams who have red flags waving fiercely for Week 3. Those five teams that we're about to talk about, we're putting them on upset alert, even if they don't know it's coming yet.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 4-6
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
College football upset picks: 5 teams on upset alert in Week 3
5. Ole Miss Rebels
Opponent: Georgia Tech | Time: Saturday, Sept. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN) | Spread: MISS -18.5
Ole Miss picked up a big win at Tulane last week and moved up in the AP Top 25 after doing so. In a spot that could've been tricky, Lane Kiffin's Rebels got the job done. It also might've included quite a bit of fool's gold.
For starters, Ole Miss picked up the win against a Tulane team playing without Michael Pratt. That's akin to an NBA team boasting about beating the 2007 Cavalier while LeBron was out. Pratt is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, so his absence was felt. And yet, the Green Wave still were in this game for quite a while until the Rebels took advantage of mistakes late.
Make no mistake, Georgia Tech is not a great football team. However, the Yellow Jackets look far better than many expected, particularly on offense as Haynes King has been far better than expected since arriving in Atlanta. They can test a Rebels defense that could very well also be looking ahead...
And that's the biggest factor here. Ole Miss has Alabama on deck for next week, a game that Lane Kiffin and the Rebels are surely viewing as their Super Bowl. They are likely taking Georgia Tech for granted in this matchup, which could be dangerous given the fight the Jackets have put up to this point.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
Opponent: Minnesota | Time: Saturday, Sept. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: UNC -7.5
Going into last week, there's a high chance that I was over my skis reacting to North Carolina's statement Week 1 over South Carolina. It turns out, that game might've told us a lot more about the lack of quality for the Gamecocks and a lot less about what the Tar Heels are this season.
Case in point, UNC followed that game up by hosting Appalachian State and, for the second year in a row, getting taken to the wire. This time around, Mack Brown's team went into double overtime against the Mountaineers, but still did escape with the win in Chapel Hill.
Now comes an even more fascinating test to visit Kenan Stadium this week with the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming to town. PJ Fleck's group hasn't been great in their 2-0 start, but they do present a difficult challenge.
UNC's offense remains its lifeblood, but Minnesota's defense is by far its greatest strength, at least on paper. They have only played Nebraska and Eastern Michigan, so perhaps that's overblown. But if that's not the case, the Golden Gophers should find some success against a still-shaky Tar Heels defense, especially if Athan Kaliakmanis can uncork any big plays that would put the pressure on Drake Maye to answer.
My belief remains that North Carolina is the better team. But this situation, especially in a possible lookahead spot with Pitt looming next week, is not exactly favorable for the Tar Heels.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
Opponent: at Missouri | Time: Saturday, Sept. 16, Noon ET (SECN) | Spread: KSU -4.5
Make no mistake, the 2-0 start for Missouri has anything but a resounding endorsement of the Tigers in the 2023 season.
A 35-10 win over South Dakota followed by a 23-19 win over Middle Tennessee is not going to move the needle all that much. With that being said, Kansas State has won more impressively to this point, but the level of competition hasn't tested the Wildcats by any stretch of the imagination either. To this point, Chris Kleiman's group has taken down Southeast Missouri State and Troy.
One thing that remains to be tested, crucially, is the Kansas State defense. We know that Will Howard and the Wildcats offense are going to find ways to move the ball, but the other side of the ball hasn't been remotely tested and, more importantly, was the biggest concern coming into this season.
Missouri's offense might not be the ones to test them, but Brady Cook has been an efficient passer if nothing else to start the year. If the K-State secondary that replaced several starters isn't up to snuff, the Tigers could concenivably take advantage of that on Saturday afternoon in Columbia.
This is the least confident college football upset pick of the week, bar none. But that's largely because I'm not entirely sure what either of these teams are at this point, which is a red flag for Kansas State on the road against a rival.
2. Tennessee Volunteers
Opponent: at Florida | Time: Saturday, Sept. 16, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: TENN -6.5
This ain't Hendon Hooker's Tennessee.
One of the biggest causes for trepidation about the Vols in the 2023 season, at least from me, was the transition from Hooker to Joe Milton. For all of the arm strength and tools that Milton has in the arsenal, what we haven't seen him do at any point in his college career is be an effective quarterback for the passing offense. And through two starts in Josh Heupel's offense, we still haven't.
Tennessee was middling against a pretty bad Virginia team in Week 1 and then looked awful flirting with disaster against FCS Austin Peay last week. Now they have to go to Gainesville for a rivalry matchup against Florida.
It's no secret that Billy Napier's team is extremely flawed. Graham Mertz is anything but special and the Gators have simply looked like a team that will be fighting for bowl eligibility and nothing more. But the defense still looks okay and there is some talent on this offense. Specifically, there is enough talent to challenge a still-suspect Vols defense that has yet to get truly tested this season.
When you then throw Milton into the equation, I can't trust the Tennessee offense either. And if that's the case on the road against an SEC rival in a hostile night-game environment, that's more than enough to put the Vols on upset alert in Week 3.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Opponent: Western Kentucky | Time: Saturday, Sept. 16, 4:00 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: OSU -29.5
Is Ohio State going to lose to Western Kentucky? Most likely not. Is there any reason that the Buckeyes should be north of four-touchdown favorites in this game? No shot!
Kyle McCord and the OSU offense have not been anything special to this point. Frankly, they looked awful in Week 1 beating Indiana and were fine but still inconsistent at best against Youngstown State last week. The one thing that Buckeyes fans have hung their hats on, though, has been that the defense has looked quite formidable to this point -- but again, that was against Indiana and Youngstown State.
Western Kentucky may not have the talent level of Ohio State, but this offense can hum. Quarterback Austin Reed led college football in passing last season and returned his leading receiver. On top of that, the Hilltoppers have consistently shown the ability to put up points before Reed and certainly with Reed.
That should allow this WKU team to at least get some action on the scoreboard. More importantly, it could put pressure on McCord and an offense it's still impossible to trust to consistently answer, which they've shown no real signs of being able to do. And if that weren't enough, it's a look-ahead spot for the Buckeyes with the Notre Dame matchup looming next week.
Again, a full-blown upset might be too tall of a task for the Hilltoppers given the talent discrepancy. But they very much have all the makings of a team that should be able to keep this game much closer than it should be given what we expect always from Ohio State.
