Even when it doesn't look like college football upsets are on the menu for a given week, you still have to be on the lookout for the Red Flags. We might not have had to apply that to our college football upset picks last week as looking at Bedlam and Arizona in Tucson were relatively easy to see, but we'll have to apply that in Week 11 to find the teams on upset alert.
Yes, there are couple of clear and obvious trouble spots in Week 11, to be sure. Georgia and Michigan, ranked No. 2 and 3 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, face by far their biggest tests to date on Saturday. That makes complete sense.
However, with teams like Alabama, Texas and even Washington against limping Utah having matchups that don't appear to be too much trouble, we have to dig a bit deeper to find the possible upsets. The good news is that we have a great shovel and some good eyes to do the digging and find the Red Flags.
So which five teams are we putting on upset alert this week? These five Top 25 teams could be in trouble come Saturday as they comprise our college football upset picks for Week 11.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 16-34
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Oregon Ducks
Opponent: USC | Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 10:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ORE -14.5
Since the loss to Washington at Husky Stadium back on Oct. 14, the Oregon Ducks have been absolutely cruising over the rest of their competition. They struggled immediately with a first-quarter hangover against Washington State, but ended up rolling and have since won 35-6 over Utah in Rice-Eccles and 63-19 over Cal despite some hiccups.
On the flip side, you have the Ducks' opponent for Week 11, the USC Trojans. To say that the wheels have fallen off for Lincoln Riley's team would be vastly underrating the situation at hand. After getting manhandled by Notre Dame, the Trojans have lost to Utah in a heartbreaker, nearly got clipped in a shootout with Cal, and then fell in a shootout with Washington last week, dropping them out of the Top 25 with three losses on the year.
So yeah, it would be completely reasonable to think that USC is going to go into Autzen Stadium and get its head kicked in by a better team.
However, I'm expecting this game to be a real dead-cat-bounce type of affair for the Trojans. After firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, I expect a defense that is not devoid of talent to come out and deliver its best effort of the season against an Oregon offense that has been clicking but hasn't been tested all too much. On the flip side, we know what Caleb Williams and the USC offense are capable of.
I'm not remotely saying it's likely. Oregon is a deserving heavy favorite in this contest. But given the circumstances and an otherworldly talent like Williams for USC, I can't rule out the possibility.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes
Opponent: Rutgers | Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN) | Spread: IOWA -1.5
Just when you thought they were dead and done, the Iowa Hawkeyes are back into the Top 25 as the No. 22 team in the country and the likely favorites to win the Big Ten West. And yet, they are a team that no one should ever feel even an ounce of confidence in.
We all know about the Iowa offense under offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, the son of head coach Kirk Ferentz. It's been an unmitigated disaster and unhyperbolically one of the worst offenses in the country this season. To make matters worse, he's now a lame-duck coach as Iowa has already announced they will part ways with him after this season, but are allowing him to remain on the staff for the remainder of the 2023 campaign.
Now the Hawkeyes welcome a Rutgers Scarlet Knights team that has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the Big Ten this season to Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. Rutgers is coming off of an upset bid against Ohio State that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Frankly, this game is going to be ugly. Rutgers is also limited offensively and the one staple for Iowa amid their offense's struggles has been the defense being stellar. Yet, with Iowa's offensive woes and the strength of the Rutgers defense, it's hard to see a world where the Hawkeyes are able to move the ball almost at all in this matchup.
With this game total set at 28 points, I don't see Iowa coming out unscathed as Rutgers looks like the better team to me and picks up the road win to give each team a 7-3 record on the year.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Opponent: at UCF | Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: OKST -2.5
Talk about a team that is absolutely surging at the right time, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have been rolling in a major way of late. Their latest feat was toppling rival Oklahoma in what could be the final Bedlam game for some time. That has vaulted Mike Gundy's Pokes all the way up to No. 15 in the latest CFP rankings as they are now the favorites to play Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.
To get to Arlington, however, the Cowboys will have to finish off the remainder of their schedule. Perhaps the toughest spot to do that could be this week as they have to go on the road to the Bounce House in Orlando for a date with Gus Malzahn's UCF Knights.
Matchup-wise, you would think this could be a good spot for the Cowboys, even on the road. UCF has almost no passing game to speak of with John Rhys Plumlee at quarterback and Oklahoma State's defense has been better against the run than the pass this season. On the other side of the ball, the UCF run defense has been abysmal, which could mean a big day for Ollie Gordon III.
Having said all of that, however, this is a massive letdown spot after the win over Oklahoma last week for the Pokes. On top of that, Malzahn's offense isn't a traditional run game and can be extremely difficult to defend. In that situation, Gundy's team could find itself in a ground-based shootout, and that's where things could get a bit tricky and an upset could be live to happen in Orlando.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponent: 9 Ole Miss | Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: UGA -10.5
Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs could go into the locker room last week knowing that they'd passed the team's biggest test to date by dispatching Missouri. However, it was really only the biggest test for Georgia until next week as they now welcome the No. 9-ranked Ole Miss Rebels to Athens for a Top 10 showdown that College GameDay will be in attendance for.
For my money, the Ole Miss defense will offer little to no resistance against Carson Beck and the Georgia offense. The Rebels grade out outside of the Top 50 in terms of Defensive Success Rate this season, and that's while facing backup quarterbacks for Tulane, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. With the way Beck has really started to emerge as a top-tier passer and with Georgia's O-line, the Dawgs should be able to move the ball freely.
Having said all of that, one could argue that Lane Kiffin's offense will be the best that Georgia has seen all season. Jaxson Dart, a slew of talented pass-catchers, and Quinshon Judkins comprise an incredibly potent unit, especially in Kiffin's scheme. Furthermore, Smart and his staff haven't really seen a Kiffin offense in some time, which could cause the defense, a unit that might fall short in comparison to the past two years in Athens, some problems.
Ultimately, I can't full-throatedly predict that Ole Miss will upset Georgia. In fact, my belief down in my heart is the exact opposite, that the Bulldogs win and cover comfortably in this game. But if we're talking about possible upsets, the potential here for a shootout in which this is anyone's game is quite high, so you have to give a team as talented as the Rebels a chance in that situation.
1. Michigan Wolverines
Opponent: at 10 Penn State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: MICH -4.5
Lost in all of the hullabaloo surrounding the Michigan sign-stealing is just how dominant the Wolverines have been this season. There is, however, quite a good reason for why Jim Harbaugh's team has beaten the brakes off of every opponent they've seen this season -- they've played one of the weakest schedules among Power 5 teams to this point.
That all changes starting on Saturday in Week 11, though, as Michigan begins the toughest three-game finish for any team in college football by going to Happy Valley to face No. 10 Penn State.
Make no mistake, this is the best team that the Wolverines will have seen in 2023. However, Penn State hasn't played a murderer's row of opponents either -- and got worked by Ohio State earlier in the regular season.
Most expect Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions to perform much better in this contest than they did in that one. And with the lack of competition that Michigan has seen, one has to wonder how they'll respond if they do get hit in the mouth at all in this matchup. That's the impetus for a potential upset at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
My core belief is ultimately that Penn State is just on a lower tier than Michigan and Ohio State, which we'll see play out on the field. With that being said, this is another matchup where, situationally, the Wolverines are in a world where some potential trouble could pop up and bite them.
