College football fans got their appetizer in Week 0 with a seven-game slate, but now we're kicking it into full gear with Week 1 of the 2023 season. Not only does that mean we get a full Saturday from noon until the middle of the night on Labor Day weekend, but there are also games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday. Rejoice!
There will be teams in Week 1, however, who aren't rejoicing. There's nothing worse than coming into a season with high hopes for the program and with a spot in the preseason Top 25 rankings only to suffer an upset loss to begin the season. That's not something any of these teams are bracing for, of course, but it's the reality of every college football season.
And once again, the Red Flags are waving around the country, and these five teams earn the dubious honor of being on upset alert and part of our college football upset picks for Week 1 of the 2023 season.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
College football upset picks for Week 1: 5 teams already on upset alert
5. Tulane Green Wave
Opponent: South Alabama | Time: Saturday, Sept. 2, 8 p.m. ET (ESPNU) | Spread: TULN -6.5
There is every reason to give Willie Fritz and the Tulane Green Wave their flowers for last season. Ending the year with a comeback New Year's Six win over vaunted USC, the Green Wave ultimately finished 12-2 as AAC champions. Now they have to follow it up -- and they actually have every chance to do so in convincing fashion.
Quarterback Michael Pratt, who returned to Tulane after entering the transfer portal briefly amid a myriad of interested parties, is arguably the best Group of 5 quarterback in the country. He returns behind four returning starters on the offensive line and we know that Fritz will have the defense working in high order.
The problem is that the hype from Tulane's 2023 campaign is making them a bit overvalued, especially against a South Alabama Jaguars team that is no slouch in its own right.
Even with a disheartening bowl loss to Western Kentucky, the Jags finished last season 10-3 and now return their leading passer in Carter Bradley, leading rusher in La'Damian Webb and two 800-yard receivers from a year ago as well. This team is better suited on offense with the returning production to challenge Tulane than people are giving them credit for, probably because the Green Wave have a 24 next to them and South Alabama doesn't.
I'm pretty comfortably taking the +6.5 points this week, as is Josh Yourish of BetSided. But if we also see Tulane stumble to find offense early as it copes with the loss of the dynamic Tyjae Spears, the Jaguars are good enough to also pull off the upset.
4. Utah Utes
Opponent: Florida | Time: Thursday, Aug. 31, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: UTAH -4.5
If circumstances were normal for the Thursday night tilt between defending Pac-12 champion Utah and this Florida team, there's a good chance that I'd be taking Kyle Whittingham's Utes to make a big statement.
Not only is this game in the always-raucous Rice-Eccles Stadium, but Utah should be out for revenge. The Utes dropped a wild one to the Gators and Anthony Richardson at the start of last year with some late-game blunders. And if that weren't enough, I'm not particularly convinced that Florida is all that good this season. Richardson is gone, replaced by Graham Mertz, and there is a ton of unproven talent on both sides of the ball.
And despite all of this, everyone has good reason to be concerned about Utah in this game with the uncertainty -- trending toward doubt -- around quarterback Cam Rising.
Rising tore his ACL in last year's Rose Bowl and has been trying to make his way back for Week 1. In typical college football injuries fashion, we have little-to-no clarity around whether that will happen. What we do have, though, is a line that opened at Utah -10 that has now moved down to -4.5, including a two-point drop in the past day.
That indicates Rising isn't playing in the eyes of oddsmakers and, as such, Utah is going to have to rely on a run game behind an offensive line that must replace stalwart Braeden Daniels and running back Tavion Thomas. Rising was a huge factor in last year's game and not having him is crucial.
Again, this isn't a huge buy on Florida -- not by any stretch. But the factof the matter is that it's a tricky spot for Utah to start and it puts them in danger of losing in back-to-back seasons to the Gators.
3. Clemson Tigers
Opponent: Duke | Time: Monday, Sept. 4, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: CLEM -12.5
If you're buying in on the Clemson Tigers as Dabo Swinney has finally made an outside hire to help remedy the offense, I don't blame you. In fact, I'm more inclined to buy in long-term on the Tigers with the addition of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley (at least for as long he's there before getting poached), particularly this season.
But one thing we saw in the spring game is that this offense is a stark change from what we've seen at Clemson in recent years. So too is the starting quarterback with Cade Klubnik beginning his first season as the unquestioned starter now that D.J. Uiagalelei is in Corvallis.
Coming into the Monday season opener, though, it feels like too many people are quickly overlooking a Duke team that, if there are any slow starts out of the gates for the Clemson offense, could take advantage of that.
Duke quarterback Riley Leonard might be the best player in the country that almost no one is ready to talk about, but he's also surrounded by a top-of-the-ACC level offensive line and solid skill position players who have plenty of experience. More importantly in relation to the Clemson offense's potential early pitfalls, they have an experienced defense who was as opportunistic as they come as the Blue Devils won nine games last year.
The Blue Devils offensive line should at least somewhat mitigate the effects of the Clemson defense in this game, meaning it could come down to the Tigers offense. And until we see Riley's vision fully take shape on the field, I'm willing to put them on upset alert in that type of matchup.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
Opponent: South Carolina | Time: Saturday, Sept. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: UNC -2.5
Get your turkey and cheese ready for Saturday night's Duke's Mayo Classic as we're getting a battle of the Carolinas with the North Carolina Tar Heels and South Carolina Gamecocks set to face off in Charlotte in one of the marquee games of Week 1. Hell, College GameDay is heading here.
UNC quarterback Drake Maye is deservedly getting hyped as the second-best quarterback in the country behind one Caleb Williams, and that is obviously leading to big expectations for the Tar Heels offensively. But when it comes to the Tar Heels, there are a litany of potential pitfalls.
That most definitely starts with the North Carolina defense, a unit that can kindly be described as a sieve last season and the hopes for improvement in the 2023 season are somewhat based in talent but are largely based on a wish and a prayer. More importantly, the Tar Heels lost leading wideout Josh Downs and tried to replace him with Kent State transfer Tez Walker -- but he's still not been granted eligibility by the NCAA for this game.
If that weren't enough, the UNC offensive line was also a major issue against higher-end athletes last season, which South Carolina, even if they are only a slightly above-average SEC team, undoubtedly boasts.
To be clear, for the entire season, I'm entirely tepid on the Gamecocks. I still don't believe in Spencer Rattler and don't think the skill positions and trenches are where they need to be to compete in the SEC. But this North Carolina team has the look of a group that could lose to anyone, especially a bowl team from the SEC. So they're clearly an upset pick candidate.
1. LSU Tigers
Opponents: Florida State | Time: Sunday, Sept. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: LSU -2.5
The No. 5 LSU Tigers are set for a rematch of last year's season opener, traveling to Camping World Stadium in Orlando for a date with another Top 10 preseason team, the No. 8-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
After winning the SEC West in Brian Kelly's first season in Baton Rouge, LSU returns the bulk of its starters from last season, not the least of which are quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Malik Nabers to lead the offense and Harold Perkins Jr. as the headliner on defense. And this team figures to be in the mix to win the SEC west again -- hence their No. 5 ranking.
While that all may be true, I'm extremely high on a Florida State team that not only beat the Tigers to begin last season but actually got better as the year went on. More importantly, the Seminoles return quite literally every player of note from last year's team while also making high-profile additions like wide receiver Keon Coleman in the transfer portal.
Despite what the rankings and the lines say about these two teams, I simply have more faith in the overall experience and trajectory of Florida State and in quarterback Jordan Travis over Daniels to make plays in this game. I'm picking the Seminoles outright in this one, so it's pretty easy to make the call to have LSU on upset alert to begin the season in this matchup.
