The first Reality Check of the college football season, following the release of the preseason AP Top 25, can be a real bummer.
The truth hurts and the truth is a bunch of ranked teams won't be as good as the voters think. Several will break their fans' hearts and maybe even get their coach fired.
Reality Check is here to remind fans of that. Sorry, not sorry.
The past two seasons have been particularly volatile, each setting a record for most preseason ranked teams to fall out of the Top 25 by the end of the season.In 2021, that number was 14. Last season, it ticked up to 15 and included three preseason top-10 teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor) that failed to even post a winning record.
The Aggies have been a special kind of disappointing the last two seasons, starting both at No. 6 in the country and ending both unranked.
Reality Check continues its tradition of rolling through the preseason AP Top 25 and asking: How does this go wrong?
No. 1 Georgia
Opener: vs. UT Martin, Sept. 2
Reality check: To go along with the deepest and most-talented roster in the country, the Bulldogs have about as manageable a schedule as an SEC team can have. There is a new starting quarterback, most likely Carson Beck. Maybe that's an issue? The case against Georgia reaching a third straight College Football Playoff is, essentially, stuff happens.
No. 2 Michigan
Opener: vs. East Carolina, Sept. 2.
Reality check: After two straight CFP one-and-dones, this feels like national championship-or-bust despite what coach Jim Harbaugh says. Harbaugh's potential suspension for the first four games would be a red flag — until you look at who they're playing. Still, if QB J.J. McCarthy doesn't continue to improve, Michigan could finish third in the last edition of the Big Ten East.
No. 3 Ohio State
Opener: at Indiana, Sept. 2
Reality check: The Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback, but worrying about that with coach Ryan Day's track record and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. on the roster is a waste of energy. The road to a disappointing Ohio State season runs through the defense, where players such as DE J.T. Tuimoloau and CB Denzel Burke need to play like the first-round draft picks they are projected to be.
No. 4 Alabama
Opener: vs. Middle Tennessee, Sept. 2.
Reality check: This is was what a season of an uncertainty looks like at Alabama: Top-five preseason ranking and three or four projected first-round draft picks. The Tide will be OK, but bringing in Notre Dame's backup quarterback, Tyler Buchner, after spring practice to compete for the starting job suggests another multiple-loss regular season is a very real possibility.
No. 5 LSU
Opener: vs. No. 8 Florida State in Orlando, Florida, Sept. 3.
Reality check: Beating Alabama in Year 1 reset the Tigers' timetable under coach Brian Kelly. LSU is being treated as a national championship contender. Too much too soon? LSU is still building high-end depth, patching significant holes with the portal and banking on QB Jayden Daniels to be a Heisman Trophy contender.
No. 6 USC
Opener: vs. San Jose State, Aug. 26.
Reality check: Heisman winner Caleb Williams and the turnover fairy (plus-21!) helped the Trojans survive a horrendous defense most of last season. The portal brings hope for an upgrade with DTs Anthony Lucas and Bear Alexander, LB Mason Cobb and CB Christian Roland-Wallace, but there is plenty of room for overall regression.
No. 7 Penn State
Opener: vs. West Virginia, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The pressure is on QB Drew Allar as he moves into the starting role, but it's a group of mostly unproven receivers that could determine whether the former-five star recruit and the Nittany Lions can meet high expectations. Kent State transfer WR Dante Cephas could be key.
No. 8 Florida State
Opener: vs. No. 5 LSU in Orlando, Florida, Sept. 3.
Reality check: FSU was probably even better than its 10-3 record last year, and return stars QB Jordan Travis and DE Jared Verse. The 'Noles are back! Well, progress isn’t always linear and there is a lot of hype around a program that hasn't beaten Wake Forest since 2018.
No. 9 Clemson
Opener: at Duke, Sept. 4.
Reality check: Coach Dabo Swinney made a big splash with the hiring of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, but his reluctance to use the transfer portal even a little — the way other elite recruiting programs do — means he is making a big bet on the new system unlocking the potential of several unproven playmakers.
No. 10 Washington
Opener: vs. Boise State, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The Pac-12 is stacked with excellent quarterbacks, explosive offenses and questionable defenses. If the Huskies can't fix their secondary, QB Michael Penix Jr. might not be able to save them from a step back after last season's vault forward.
No. 11 Texas
Opener: vs. Rice, Sept. 2
Reality check: The Longhorns' return to prominence has experienced numerous false starts over the previous decade, and their last season in the Big 12 has them tabbed as favorites. We could detail a bunch of reasons why Texas could disappoint, but at this point does anybody need to be convinced?
No. 12 Tennessee
Opener: vs. Virginia at Nashville, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The most oversimplified football analysis boils it all down to the quarterback, but here we go: The Volunteers' follow-up to their 2022 breakout is largely dependent on whether QB Joe Milton's sixth college season is the one where it clicks.
No. 13 Notre Dame
Opener: vs. Navy at Dublin, Ireland, Aug. 26.
Reality check: Marcus Freeman salvaged his first season as coach after a rough start so the vibes are generally still good for the Fighting Irish, who now welcome former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman. Freeman needs to prove he can avoid the bad losses that sunk 2022.
No. 14 Utah
Opener: vs. Florida, Aug. 31.
Reality check: Odd to say that the two-time defending Pac-12 champion needs to regain its identity, but last year Utah wasn't quite the bully it has been under coach Kyle Whittingham. Another off-brand season in a tough conference could be problem.
No. 15 Oregon
Opener: vs. Portland State, Sept. 2.
Reality check: Yet another Pac-12 team with a star quarterback (Bo Nix) leading a potent offense and a defense that needs to improve. If the defense is once again less than the sum of its parts, Year 2 under Dan Lanning could be worse than Year 1.
No. 16 Kansas State
Opener: vs. Southeast Missouri, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The Wildcats need some new game-changers to emerge after the departure of RB Deuce Vaughn and DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah. If not, recent history suggests a defending conference champion can become a six-win team fast in the Big 12.
No. 17 TCU
Opener: vs. Colorado, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The Horned Frogs had close game magic on the way to the national championship game, something that is traditionally hard to recreate. Everybody is expecting substantial regression. No Power Five team to reach the playoff has ever been ranked this low the next season. There is a chance even this ranking is too optimistic.
No. 18 Oregon State
Opener: at San Jose State, Sept. 3.
Reality check: Have we considered the possibility that Clemson transfer QB DJ Uiagalelei is not an upgrade at the position for the Beavers?
No. 19 Wisconsin
Opener: vs. Buffalo, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The program with maybe the most consistently reliable offensive identity in the Big Ten for the last three decades is going through an extensive makeover under coach Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo. A lot of prognosticators, including a fair amount of AP voters, believe that will go smoothly. Seems presumptuous.
No. 20 Oklahoma
Opener: vs. Arkansas State, Sept. 2.
Reality check: Pollsters are banking on Year 1 under Brent Venables being an anomaly for the Sooners, who have undergone a massive roster overhaul. Counterpoint: What if it's not?
No. 21 North Carolina
Opener: vs. South Carolina in Charlote, North Carolina, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The Tar Heels rode the brilliance of QB Drake Maye to an ACC title game last year. This year? OK, Drake, now do it again.
No. 22 Mississippi
Opener: vs. Mercer, Sept. 2.
Reality check: Narratives change fast in the SEC. Rebels coach Lane Kiffin had not even signed that $8.5 million per year extension and Ole Miss fans were fighting buyer's remorse as they stumbled to a 1-5 finish last season. And now Georgia's on the schedule, too.
No. 23 Texas A&M
Opener: vs. New Mexico, Sept. 2.
Reality check: Voters just can't quit the Aggies, but what if we told you that coach Jimbo Fisher's team is more likely to overachieve in 2023 than underachieve?
No. 24 Tulane
Opener: vs. South Alabama, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The Green Wave held on to coach Willie Fritz and kept talented QB Michael Pratt out of the transfer portal following last season's historic season. It was cause for more celebration, but even a modest follow-up could be a lot to ask. The last time Tulane finished ranked in back-to-back seasons was 1939 when it was in the SEC.
No. 25 Iowa
Opener: vs. Utah State, Sept. 2.
Reality check: The drive for 325 (points) is the top storyline for the Hawkeyes, who need to hit that mediocre mark for offensive coordinator and son-of-the-head-coach Brian Ferentz to retain his gig. An infusion of Big Ten transfers (QB Cade McNamara, TE Erick All, WR Kaleb Brown) should help a lot. Your skepticism is well earned.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP and listen at http://www.appodcasts.com
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll
