NBA Opening Night is officially upon us. As the 2023-24 season is set to begin, so is fantasy basketball.
Even though the sample size has been small, these three rookies have made it abundantly clear during the preseason that they will be able to make an impact from day one not only in real life but from a fantasy basketball perspective.
Let's evaluate how/what makes these players primed for huge rookie campaigns.
3. Scoot Henderson, G, Portland Trail Blazers
Scoot Henderson has big shoes to fill following the Blazers' decision to move on from their franchise point guard of over a decade, Damian Lillard. While he may not be of Lillard's caliber at this moment in time, Henderson has quickly shown he is ready to step into the spotlight and become the new cornerstone of the Blazers.
At 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, Henderson is built like a bull. He is a handful for opposing defenses when he has a head of steam thanks to his athleticism, speed, and playmaking ability. He has a relentless motor which has motivated Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups to coach his team to play more in transition. Henderson is a one-man fast break who has shown an ability to find open teammates in the process, as evidenced by this sequence against the Jazz.
Despite only being 19 years old, Henderson has already shown he has a great feel for the game and how to change speeds and/or play with pace. His willingness to run will help him to continue to give his teammates open looks from day one as he did on this fast break play to Anfernee Simons as well as enable him to get to the basket consistently.
In four preseason games, Henderson averaged 13.5 points per game to go with 5.8 assists while shooting 90 percent from the free throw line. Being that Henderson is going to be the focal point of the Blazers' offense from day one, those numbers seem attainable in his rookie season. However, efficiency could be something Henderson struggles with as the Blazers allow him to play through his growing pains. He shot just 41.7 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from beyond the arc while averaging 3.5 turnovers per game. While the shooting splits and turnovers leave much to be desired, Henderson is going to have every opportunity to fill up the stat sheet as a rookie.
2. Victor Wembanyama, F/C, San Antonio Spurs
Many people will be shocked to see Spurs rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama ranked second on this list, but that is a testament to the player who is ranked ahead of him more than it is a criticism of Wembanyama. As if there wasn't enough hype surrounding Wembanyama leading up to the season, he gave fans a glimpse of what's to come in the preseason.
In four preseason games, Wembanyama averaged 19.3 points per game to go with 4.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists. However, what makes Wembanyama so special in both real-life and fantasy basketball is his defensive presence. He averaged 1.0 steals and 2.8 blocks per game in the four preseason games he played. Not to mention, he was efficient offensively in that span, shooting 50.9 percent from the field. However, the 3-point shooting and turnovers leave some meat on the bone — he shot just 31.8 percent from 3 and averaged 2.8 turnovers per game. It is important to note that Wembanyama did this all while only playing 20.9 minutes per game.
Now, if we convert those stats to per-36 minutes, the numbers are insane. Per 36 minutes, Wembanyama averaged 33.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, three 3-pointers made, 1.7 steals, and a whopping 4.7 blocks. Those are Earth-shattering numbers and Wembanyama seems poised to have a huge rookie season. His ability to impact both ends of the floor was evidenced in 90 seconds of gameplay against the Warriors last week:
What all of this in mind, what separates the No.1 rookie on this list from Wembanyama is the Spurs' propensity to rest Wembanyama throughout the season. Even though he is a 19-year-old rookie, the Spurs are still a rebuilding team and will not put their prize possession in harm's way. After all, the Spurs were at the forefront of the "load management" era and while there were provisions put in place to prevent teams from load managing this year, the rules don't necessarily apply to Wembanyama as a rookie.
He is certainly going to be rested routinely throughout the season, which makes it difficult to rely on him from a season-long perspective. There is no doubt that when he is on the court, he will be making a major impact in fantasy basketball because of his ability to block shots at a high rate, make threes, and shoot efficiently.
1. Chet Holmgren, F/C, Oklahoma City Thunder
While Chet Holmgren was a member of the 2022 NBA Draft, he has rookie eligibility after missing the entire 2022-23 season due to a foot injury. Any doubts surrounding Holmgren and any potential rust after missing so much time with an injury were put to bed quickly in the preseason.
In four preseason games, Holmgren averaged 16.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.0 blocks in 19.3 minutes per game. Not only did he fill up the stat sheet, he was incredibly efficient in the process, shooting 57.9 percent from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc.
While the per-36-minute stats may not be as eye-opening as Wembanyama's they are most certainly noteworthy. Per 36 minutes, Holmgren averaged 30.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks.
What bodes well for Holmgren is he plays for a team that is expected to be competitive this season. The Thunder have become nearly everyone's favorite young team that is expected to take a massive step forward in 2023-24 in large part due to Holmgren's health.
Additionally, Holmgren won't be relied on to carry the offense the way Wembanyama will be throughout the season, which makes the efficiency metrics sustainable. Given that the Thunder have so many effective playmakers with the ball in their hands such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams, it will create mismatches and open looks for Holmgren. We already got to see a glimpse of that in the Thunder's preseason game against the Bucks:
Holmgren has a great chance to be the highest-ranked rookie in fantasy basketball given the environment he is stepping into and his natural ability as a seven-footer who can stretch the floor offensively while offering elite rim protection defensively.
Fantasy managers would be wise to prioritize Holmgren over Wembanyama in drafts even though the latter is ranked 11 spots ahead of him per Yahoo Fantasy Sports' in nine-category league formats.
