Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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The rugged AFC North is the only division with four winning teams and they’re playing each other in Week 11.
It starts with Bengals-Ravens on Thursday night.
Both teams are frustrated following tough losses. The Ravens (7-3) need a win to stay in first place. The Bengals (5-4) can’t afford another loss to remain in contention for the division crown with the Steelers and Browns both at 6-3. They had the same record through nine games in each of the past two seasons and ended up winning the North.
Lamar Jackson had an excellent game against the Bengals in Week 2 when he led the Ravens to a 27-24 road win. But Joe Burrow was still dealing with a calf injury back then.
He’s healthy now and led the Bengals to four straight wins, including impressive victories against Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo, before losing to Houston.
The Ravens are 3 1/2-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Pro Picks senses an upset.
BENGALS, 27-26
DALLAS AT CAROLINALine: Cowboys minus 10 1/2
The Cowboys (6-3) have dominated bad teams except for a loss to the Cardinals. It’ll be difficult for the lowly Panthers (1-8) to stay in this game.
BEST BET: COWBOYS, 30-13
PHILADELPHIA AT KANSAS CITYLine: Chiefs minus 2 1/2
A Super Bowl rematch featuring the top two seeds in the NFL. Both the Eagles (8-1) and Chiefs (7-2) were off in Week 10. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 29-4 after a bye, including playoffs and his 14 seasons in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles aim to avenge a 38-35 loss to two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. They’ve been the league’s most consistent team despite not playing to their standard. The Chiefs are winning mostly because of a dominant defense while waiting for Mahomes and the offense to get on track.
UPSET SPECIAL: EAGLES, 29-27
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at GREEN BAYLine: Chargers minus 3
The Chargers (4-5) can score points behind Justin Herbert but they have the league’s second-worst defense. That shouldn’t be a problem against Jordan Love and the Packers (3-6).
CHARGERS, 26-20
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLELine: Jaguars minus 7
The AFC South-leading Jaguars (6-3) need to rebound after a humbling loss. The Titans (3-6) haven’t won on the road since Nov. 17, 2022.
JAGUARS, 23-19
LAS VEGAS at MIAMILine: Dolphins minus 12 1/2
The Raiders are 2-0 under interim coach Antonio Pierce, but they beat two New York City-based teams with dismal offenses. Now they have to face Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the NFL’s No. 1 offense. The Dolphins (6-3) haven’t defeated a team with a winning record but the Raiders (5-5) aren’t there yet.
DOLPHINS, 34-17
ARIZONA at HOUSTONLine: Texans minus 4 1/2
C.J. Stroud and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans have turned the Texans (5-4) into a playoff contender. Kyler Murray sparked the Cardinals (2-8) in his return and having him on the field could spoil Arizona’s chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick and landing his replacement.
TEXANS, 26-23
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELANDLine: Steelers minus 1 1/2
Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his second career start for the Browns (6-3) after Deshaun Watson sustained a season-ending injury. The Steelers (6-3) beat Cleveland in Week 2 and have an easier path to victory now with Watson out.
STEELERS, 16-13
NEW YORK GIANTS at WASHINGTONLine: Commanders minus 9 1/2
After two straight embarrassing losses, the Giants (2-8) face a team they actually beat in Week 7. But New York is down to third-string QB Tommy DeVito. Sam Howell and the Commanders (4-6) have played eight games within one score.
COMMANDERS, 24-16
CHICAGO at DETROITLine: Lions minus 8 1/2
Detroit (7-2) can move the ball at will on the ground or in the air. If the defense steps up, the Lions are a Super Bowl contender. The Bears (3-7) will have a tough time keeping pace.
LIONS, 30-20
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCOLine: 49ers minus 11 1/2
The 49ers (6-3) are back on track after ending a three-game losing skid with a convincing win at Jacksonville. The Buccaneers (4-5) are only in the mix because they play in the weak NFC South.
49ERS, 31-20
NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALOLine: Bills minus 7
The struggling Bills (5-5) hope a new offensive coordinator gets Josh Allen and the offense going. The Jets (4-5) can’t score with Zach Wilson under center.
BILLS, 22-13
SEATTLE at LOS ANGELES RAMSLine: Seahawks minus 1
Matthew Stafford is expected to start for the Rams (3-6) after missing a game with a thumb injury. The Seahawks (6-3) lost at home to LA in Week 1 and can’t afford a slip-up if they want to stay in contention for the NFC West.
SEAHAWKS, 22-17
MINNESOTA at DENVERLine: Broncos minus 2 1/2
Joshua Dobbs has kept the Vikings (6-4) rolling despite the loss of Kirk Cousins. Minnesota might even get star WR Justin Jefferson back. The Broncos (4-5) can get to .500 after winning three in a row, including upsets over the Chiefs and Bills. But they’ve got a short week after playing Monday night in Buffalo.
BRONCOS, 23-21
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Last week: Straight up: 6-8. Against spread: 6-7-1
Overall: Straight up: 95-55. Against spread: 82-62-6.
Best Bet: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 4-5-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 6-4. Against spread: 7-3.
Thursday: Straight up: 8-2. Against spread: 8-1-1.
Monday: Straight up: 7-5. Against spread: 8-3-1.
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