PGA Championship picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for Oak Hill

PGA Championship picks and best bets for the 2023 tournament at Oak Hill as we have outrights, Top 10s and more PGA Tour expert picks for the second major.

The second major championship of the year is here as the 2023 PGA Championship takes to Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY, a course with a great major history, last being the site of Jason Dufner claiming the Wanamaker Trophy back in 2013.

Since that time, though, Oak Hill has undergone an extensive rennovation and tree removal project that will make this year's major play much different than it did a decade ago. Don't make your 2023 PGA Championship picks based on how things played 10 years ago — instead, we're going to be looking at players who excel with long drives to the right parts of fairways, long approaches, and can save themselves around tricky green complexes.

Not every player in our 2023 PGA Championship picks is going to fit that bill perfectly, but they all check multiple boxes to succeed at Oak Hill. So with that in mind, let's take a look at our PGA Tour expert picks for the PGA Championship this week, first going through our expert picks for Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and One and Done before getting more best bets and then three outright winner picks to win at Oak Hill Country Club this week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. With such a big card for The Masters, the expert picks listed first are 1 unit, the rest are 0.5 units unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Byron Nelson: 18-45-2, -13.394 units (0-19 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | -3.6 units at Byron Nelson)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $4,301,685.65 (KH Lee at Byron Nelson, $22,416.43)

PGA Championship picks: PGA Tour expert picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done

Top 5 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Xander Schauffele (+450)

Always the bridesmaid, Xander Schauffele is still searching for his first major championship win. But the man has been playing stellar golf leading up to the PGA Championship, finishing T10 at The Masters and inside the Top 5 at both the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo for his last three stroke play starts. He's slightly better than Tour average on proximity from approaches 200+ yards, but his driving is top tier and, overall his approach play has been phenomenal. He's also first in this field in weighted Strokes Gained: Total over the last 20 rounds.

I just can't trust him to win, but these odds for a Top 5 are juicy.

Top 10 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Justin Thomas (+250)

I'm not going to be picking Justin Thomas to win the PGA Championship in back-to-back years, but the fact of the matter is that we're starting to see JT find his form once again. After a missed cut at Augusta, he was T25 at the Heritage and then T14 at Wells Fargo in his last two starts. More importantly, his ball striking has come back, gaining 2.15 weighted strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds. He may not win again, but he'll be back in contention in that form.

Top 20 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Adam Scott (+300)

Adam Scott is an ageless wonder at 42 years old, fresh off of T8 finish at the Byron Nelson. But he fits super well at Oak Hill with his long, accurate driving while ranking tied for eighth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity on approaches from 200+ yards. When you then factor in that he's gaining more than 2.0 strokes with his short game over the last 12 rounds, Scott is trending toward a great finish this week and this type of value for Top 20 is too easy.

One and Done pick for the PGA Championship: Cameron Smith

There's only but so many times that you can take a LIV Golf player in One and Done, so I'm getting after it with Cam Smith this week. He showed great form in Tulsa this past week as he made it into a playoff, though he lost to Dustin Johnson. The erratic driver does scare me a bit, but the upside with his streaky approach play and elite short game make me confident he can pull through with a great finish.

PGA Championship picks: Best bets for Oak Hill

Brooks Koepka to finish Top 10 (+230)

I trusted my gut at The Masters and cashed in with betting on a great week from Brooks Koepka and got rewarded. He hasn't slowed down on LIV Golf with an outright third-place showing in Signapore followed by a T5 in Tulsa this past week — which looks even better when you consider it was a three-man playoff at the top. He's made for major championship golfing and his cerebral, smart, cautious play should show up well at Oak Hill.

Si Woo Kim to finish Top 20 (+300)

We're going off of a bit of a gut feel here, but it feels like Si Woo Kim is trending with a T7 at the Zurich and then a T2 last week at the Byron Nelson. He's above the Tour average in approaches from more than 200 yards away in terms of proximity, has been driving the ball well, and has a nice around-the-green play. His erratic putting is why I'm not more aggressive than a Top 20 but I love his streaky nature when he seems to be rounding into form.

Patrick Reed to finish Top 30 (+210)

I have much less confidence in Reed coming from LIV than Koepka based on the overall lack of data, but I do know that he was Top 5 at The Masters, hasn't finished worse than T13 in his last four starts on the LIV series, and has one of the most remarkable short games in golf. That's going to play well at Oak Hill and should carry him and a solid major pedigree to an overall solid finish, which we're getting great odds for on just a Top 30 play.

Viktor Hovland to finish Top 20, 1 Unit (+120, DraftKings)

Yes, the short game is the issue with Viktor Hovland. This isn't a new refrain for the Norwegian. Everything else, however, seems to fit his game perfectly at Oak Hill. He's one of the best drivers on the PGA Tour, both long and with his placement. His approach play is also long, aggressive and lethal when dialed. More importantly, Hovland has been trending in majors with Top 7 finishes in his last two starts, including Augusta, another place where his short game would've killed him in years past. He's moving in the right trajectory and I'm staying on it with a juiced Top 20.

PGA Championship picks: Outright winners for Oak Hill in 2023

Jon Rahm to win PGA Championship, 1 Unit (+750)

Understanding every reason why these odds aren't great and why picking a back-to-back major championship winner is often a fool's errand, how can you not look at this course and think that Jon Rahm is almost too obvious.

Rahm leads this field in weighted strokes gained off the tee over the last 12 rounds, the best driver in the world right now with his length and accuracy, while also being near the top on approach. More importantly, he's tied for fourth on the PGA Tour in proximity from 200+ yards on approach. With his magic short game and putter, he's an ideal fit for this test at Oak Hill and it's an aggressive full unit for him to win to try and battle the odds.

Cameron Smith to win PGA Championship, 0.3 Units (+3200)

We talked about Smith earlier, but he feels like he's another player trending and we saw last year what that can mean. Since The Masters, he's finished inside the Top 6 of all three LIV Golf events. His game is coming back and we know how lethal his short game is, particularly if he's also playing well with his approach. Again, his driver being a bit wayward at times does give me some pause but, on the whole, his game feels suited for a big week at Oak Hill where he contends for a second major.

Sungjae Im to win PGA Championship, 0.2 Units (+3600)

Now onto a player looking for his first major in Sungjae Im. The South Korean finished T16 at Augusta and hasn't finished outside of the Top 8 in his three starts since then. Im is playing a phenomenally well-rounded game right now, gaining strokes across the board over his last 20 rounds and gaining comfortably over 2.0 weighted strokes gained total. He hasn't contended in majors previously but, given his pedigree and form, it's only a matter of time and the fit is perfect for the way he plays.