PGA Championship cut line prediction 2023: Can Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Taking a look at the 2023 PGA Championship cut line prediction and projection to see where the number will be and if Rahm, Spieth and others will make it.

In the week leading up to the 2023 PGA Championship, golf fans were promised potential carnage and US Open-like conditions from Oak Hill Country Club. And that's exactly what it delivered.

With the late wave in the first round about halfway through their first round, only 18 of the 156 players in the field for the 2023 PGA Championship were under par. And those over par included a host of massive names, not the least of which was one of the favorites, Jon Rahm, who posted a shocking round of 76, putting him at 6-over for the tournament after just his first round.

Other notable players struggling included Jordan Spieth (+3), Jason Day (+6), Matt Fitzpatrick (+6), while others still on the course like Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young and more were also well over par at the PGA.

So that had many fans asking what the 2023 PGA Championship cut line is going to end up being with so many big-name players struggling. With that, let's take a look at the PGA Championship cut projection to see where the line could end up and what that means for some of those top players.

Projected 2023 PGA Championship cut line at Oak Hill

About three-quarters of the way through the first round (around 6:45 p.m. ET), DataGolf has the projected PGA Championship cut line coming somewhere between +5 and +7. According to their data-driven predictions and with the carnage at Oak Hill, as of this writing, there is a 32.2% chance the cut ends up at +5, a 38.9% chance it's at +6, and a lower but non-negligible 16.1% chance the cut is at +7.

Given that, barring a complete collapse on Friday, that's relatively good news for players like Spieth in the +3 ranger, especially if they can bounce back closer or under even par in the second round.

In the case of players like Rahm, Fitzpatrick and more in the range of the projected PGA Championship cut line right now, though, that means they aren't dead in the water, but that there is a lot of work to be done on Friday if they want to see the weekend.