The Open Championship picks and best bets for the 2023 tournament at Royal Liverpool as we have outrights, Top 10s and more PGA Tour expert picks.
Set the coffee pot, it's Open Championship week as we head to Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, where Rory McIlroy captured what has shockingly become his next-to-last major when the British Open was last played at this venue back in 2014.
Now, Rory enters The Open Championship having just won the Scottish Open in dramatic fashion, but with plenty of contenders trying to keep him from going back-to-back with wins, both on the season and at Royal Liverpool. Rickie Fowler, who finished runner-up here in 2014, along with defending champion Cam Smith, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, and of course, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm will have their say.
The Open Championship is one of the most fun events of the year and, frankly, we might be about to over-extend ourselves with our Open Championship picks and PGA Tour expert picks. But there's so much to like and unpack, we're going for it with the last major championship of the year.
So let's get into it with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets before we break down the rest of our Open Championship picks.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. With such a big card for The Open Championship, the expert picks listed first are 1 unit, the rest are 0.5 units unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Scottish: 42-115-2, +3.506 units (2-37 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -1.3 units at Scottish)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $8,615,500.65 (Tommy Fleetwood at Scottish, $261,990)
The Open Championship picks: PGA Tour expert picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done
Top 5 pick at The Open Championship: Scottie Scheffler (+180)
At this point, we have to just accept that Scottie Scheffler is incapable of finishing outside of the Top 5. He leads this field by a mile in weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 16 rounds and farther back than that as well. The putter is the big issue, but he hasn't finished outside the Top 5 since the RBC Heritage… which was a T11. His performance on the greens will once again keep him from winning, but the Top 5 feels too locked in for it to not happen.
Top 10 pick at The Open Championship: Tommy Fleetwood (+240)
Not only have we seen Tommy Fleetwood perform well overall with a T2 finish in Canada, and T6 last week in Scotland on the PGA Tour, but he was also T5 at the US Open and T18 at the PGA Championship. He's playing exquisitely from tee to green right now and clearly plays this style of golf well. Moreover, his British Open recent history is enticing with a T4 last year and T2 in 2019. With all of that coming together, a Top 10 at these odds seems impossible to overlook.
Top 20 pick at The Open Championship: Robert Macintyre (+190)
After a season where we've seen Robert Macintyre really struggle to try and secure a Ryder Cup spot for the European team, the Scotsman has started to come on strong with a second-place finish and T4 in his last two starts. Though he was T34 at St. Andrews at last year's Open Championship, he had registered Top 10s in each of the last two championships. He's peaking for this week and a Top 20 finish feels safe enough, though there is more upside.
One and Done pick for The Open Championship: Robert Macintyre
As has been covered in several previous weeks, the bullets in the chamber aren't there right now because we blew some big names unwisely at other events. With that said, I'm confident in Macintyre this week. His rise in recent performance combined with his history at this even make me think that this could end up being a big payday for him.
Open Championship picks: Best bets for Royal Liverpool
Dustin Johnson to finish Top 10 (+360)
Make of it what you will, but Dustin Johnson has been lingering on leaderboards in LIV Golf as of late, finishing fifth in London and ninth at Valderrama. Moreover, he also showed up with a T10 at the US Open this year while being T6 and T8 at the last two British Open tournaments. Johnson also quietly finished T12 in 2014 at Hoylake. He's got the game if he shows up to make noise and I love this number as he's being undervalued given his talent.
Jordan Spieth to Miss the Cut (Odds Not Yet Available)
Jordan Spieth has been a master at The Open Championship in his career, that's no secret. He has a win, a runner-up and two additional Top 10s in his last five starts in this event. But his game just isn't there right now with three missed cuts in his last four starts. The strokes gained tee-to-green have started to decline and his putter remains unreliable. With so many other guys peaking in form, I'm risking it a bit to bet Spieth to miss the cut.
Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland and Tommy Fleetwood to finish Top 30, 1 Unit (+472 Parlay)
So this is admittedly as aggressive as I'd ever like to be, but I love this. These four players are probably the best in the world over the past few months who aren't Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler or Jon Rahm, but also have great form and history coming into Royal Liverpool. Their games should fit and, with Top 30 being a bit low, I love this little parlay at these high odds.
But there's a little more to McIlroy, Hatton and Hovland that we'll get to now.
Open Championship picks: Outright winners for Royal Liverpool in 2023
Rory McIlroy to win The Open Championship, 1 Unit (+700, DraftKings)
Some people are going to be off of Rory McIlroy now because of the Scottish Open win. For me, he's in complete burning-the-world-to-the-ground mode now and Royal Liverpool has seen him hoist the Claret Jug before. His tee-to-green game over the past 16 rounds has been on-par with the absurd Scheffler numbers and he won last week without even putting well. After the pain last year at St. Andrews, he's going to get it done this time around.
Viktor Hovland to win The Open Championship, 0.5 Units (+2200)
Speaking of last year, Viktor Hovland broke the brains of golf fans last year at The Open Championship when he was in that final group on Sunday with Rory. Since then, the Norwegian has elevated his game, especially in the biggest events and majors. He's a contender now and his ability with the driver and his long irons should suit him perfectly to contend again and be in the mix to win.
Tyrrell Hatton to win The Open Championship, 0.5 Units (+2500)
You could make the argument that a late-Sunday meltdown cost Tyrrell Hatton the win at the Scottish Open. On the whole, though, the Englishman has continued to be dangerous when he's on the course with a polished all-around game. Throw in the fact that he has a T6 and T11 in his last three starts at this major, and he appears live to make some noise at Hoylake.
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