No more prognostication, no more guessing, no more hoping, no more preseason (thank heavens) -- NFL Week 1 is finally here.
The 2023 NFL season will get underway on Thursday night with the season-opening matchup of the Detroit Lions visiting the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, the champs took a big hit on Tuesday with star tight end Travis Kelce suffering a knee hyper-extension that leaves him doubtful for the opener.
But elsewhere in the league, there are plenty of rivalries renewed. The new-look Packers with Jordan Love at the helm take on the rival Bears, the Cowboys and Giants do battle on Sunday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers makes his Jets debut on Monday Night Football against Josh Allen and the Bills, and plenty of other great action throughout the day as well.
So who starts out 1-0 and which teams fall into an early 0-1 hole? Let's find out with our NFL Week 1 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 1 picks and predictions: Thursday Night Football
Even with Travis Kelce being out for this game, I've still got to go with the Chiefs as the winners in this one -- but you should definitely expect a shootout.
BetSided Editor Iain MacMillan, who is on the "Road to 272" again with betting every NFL regular season game, broke down this matchup and also sees the Chiefs coming up big on opening night, partially as a belief in Kansas City, but partially as doubting the progression of the Lions defense.
A general Week 1 strategy I like to follow is to bet against teams that have been getting a lot of offseason hype and bet on teams who are getting a lot of offseason hate. The Lions fall under the former category.I know they added key pieces like C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton on defense, but they have a lot of ground to make up to people able to hold off Patrick Mahomes. The Lions were dead last in 2022 in opponent yards per play (6.2) and 30th in opponent points per play (0.397).
I think taking on the defending Super Bowl champs on Opening Night is going to be a case of biting off more than you can chew. Iain MacMillan, BetSided
That's where I land. Without Chris Jones, I don't foresee the Chiefs having a ton of answers defensively, particularly against Detroit's dangerous run game. Having said that, the Lions should have just as difficult a time stopping Kansas City. While I'm dubious of the cover that Iain is betting, I do think the Chiefs get the win.
NFL Week 1 picks and predictions: Early Afternoon Games
This is just a mismatch, plain and simple. While we aren't entirely sure what the Ravens offense is going to look like with new OC Todd Monken calling the plays, the talent gap is evident just on paper. Plus, putting rookie C.J. Stroud on the road against an experienced Ravens defense for his first NFL start doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success to me.
Probably the best game of the 1 p.m. ET slate, I'm giving the Browns a slight edge here.
The fact of the matter is that we don't know entirely what Cleveland is going to look like in this game with a full offseason having Deshaun Watson at the helm and able to suit up Week 1. The defense is also a question mark. But Joe Burrow missed the majority of training camp with a calf injury and, with a sneaky shaky track record in Week 1 on top of that, I'm taking the Browns at home.
It's understandable if you don't want to trust the Vikings giving the fool's gold they showed for virtually all of last season. Having said that, this offense should be able to slice through a dubious Bucs defense with relative ease. And even if Brian Flores' Minnesota D takes some time to take its final form, are you really going to trust Baker Mayfield to keep the pace? I'm surely not.
Don't count me in among the believers in the Saints this season. In fact, they feel like a bit of a sucker bet to win the NFC South if you ask me. Having said that, the Titans aren't a team that deserve a ton of faith at this current juncture. We saw the offense take a noticeable step back last season and that's unlikely to subside this year. The defense will keep it close, but New Orleans is simply the better team and, at home, that'll show up in the final score.
Quietly, this could be one of the more entertaining games of NFL Week 1. Bryce Young seemingly got better with every preseason snap and there should be high hopes for the No. 1 overall pick in Carolina. Having said that, the Falcons are a machine under Arthur Smith. It might not always be pretty, but there's enough talent for this group to be consistently effective and claw out a win, especially in Atlanta.
The Anthony Richardson hype train is going to get off the rails quite a few times in the quarterback's rookie season. Jacksonville's defense might not be a world-beater, but it's enough to cause an exceptionally inexperienced developmental quarterback a lot of problems. More importantly, this Colts defense is just plain stinky. Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley should lead the charge to dice up Indianapolis in a decisive Week 1 victory.
The other contender for best game of the early slate, this is a tough one to pick ultimately. I'll let Iain MacMillan chime in again from his Road to 272 column to explain why.
"The big question surrounding both of these teams this season is their quarterback play," Iain wrote. "Can Brock Purdy repeat the success he had last season as Mr. Irrelevant? Can Kenny Pickett take a step forward and be the QB of the future for the Steelers?
"With as many question marks on offense for both teams, there's a level of certainty around their defense. We know both units will be amongst the best in the NFL."
I'm of the belief that Purdy was more flash-in-the-pan than something sustainable. Meanwhile, Pickett appears to be on the ascension. For that reason, give me the Steelers, particularly at home, in a tight one.
The Arizona Cardinals are starting either Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs at quarterback. There is no world in which I'm high on the Commanders long term, but it's going to get ugly right away for the Cards.
NFL Week 1 picks and predictions: Late Afternoon Games
Is the Sean Payton revival going to work in Denver? Frankly, it can't get any worse than it was last year in Russell Wilson's first season with the Broncos.
This is a great litmus test for the new-look Broncos, though. The Raiders are among the worst teams in the NFL by my preseason estimation and their secondary is going to be easy to pick apart by the looks of things. In the simplest terms, if Denver doesn't win this one, we might be staring down the barrel of a lost cause.
The Dolphins visiting the Chargers obviously won't get the pub that some other marquee matchups in NFL Week 1 will, but it could be the best game of the day and week. These two offenses should be able to move the ball often. At the end of the day, though, I trust the playmakers in the Dolphins offense more so than I do those in LA, even if I'd give a slight edge to Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa.
There's at least a chance that the Eagles see some serious regression from last season after the loss of both corners and with the roster less deep than it was a year ago. It won't matter against the Patriots, however. Until I see Bill O'Brien's offense really take off, it's hard to trust the Mac Jones-led unit to keep up with top-tier teams in this league. It may not be the most convincing effort from Philadelphia, but the defense should still pave the way to a comfortable win.
Jordan Love, you are the new owner of the Chicago Bears. Your prize? A 1-0 start to your career as the Packers starters.
As the offseason has gone on, I've become a bigger believer in Love in the Matt LaFleur offense. The weapons are young but extremely talented and the head coach is quite impressive. Green Bay's defense is still an issue I'm unconvinced is resolved but, as the Bears offense is still figuring itself out with many new pieces, the Packers are the play in Week 1.
This has been a bit of a trendy upset pick to this point leading up to Sunday in Week 1, but I can't buy into that. Seattle might ultimately be good but unspectacular in year two of Geno Smith. However, the Rams aren't the same team that we saw win a Super Bowl just a couple of years ago. This is team with so many unproven players at key spots, partiuclarly on defense, that it's hard to have faith in them against a playoff-caliber team, which the Seahawks are.
NFL Week 1 picks and predictions: Sunday and Monday Night Football
My good friend Iain MacMillan is buying all of the offseason narratives with this game. He's in on the Giants making a leap in year two of Brian Daboll, he's in on Dak Prescott's turnovers being an issue, and he's taking New York +3.5 in this game.
He's wrong.
Daniel Jones made notable improvements last season under Daboll, but I also believe that we saw him at his ceiling. The addition of Darren Waller is only going to elevate the offense but so much and he's going up against a Cowboys defense that has a claim to be the best unit in the league. Furthermore, the Dallas offense arguably made as many upgrades this offseason as the G-Men and, on top of that, Dak's intercpetion woes were wholly overblown.
This is a hearty Cowboys victory and a Giants' Week 1 heartbreak waiting to happen.
The AFC East is going to be a warzone in the 2023 season and we should see the prelude to that on Monday Night Football.
Frankly, this has the makings of a heavyweight fight with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen trading massive blows from start to finish in this game. And while the new Jets quarterback will undoubtedly elevate New York to contend in that type of matchup, the fact of the matter is that Buffalo has been in these types of games before while many of the Jets playmakers have not.
It's going to be tight and one play could legitimately make the difference in this contest. When it's said and done, however, I trust the Bills to make that play based on track record more so than an ascending Jets team with a new quarterback.
