Every year, there are prospects who get picked higher than expected. Who might crash the 2023 NBA Draft lottery?
We see it every year. The lottery order is set, the NBA Draft arrives, and at least one team breaks from consensus. In 2019, the Phoenix Suns selected Cam Johnson with the No. 11 pick. Consensus had him pegged in the 20-30 range. In 2021, the Spurs selected ultra-young wing Josh Primo with the No. 12 pick. He, too, was expected more in the 20-30 range.
Every team has its own individual scouting department, its own set of core values, and its own list of priorities. Put the right team in the right spot, and they're liable to take a significant risk to get "their guy." All it takes is a promising individual workout or an illuminating team interview for a prospect to end up much higher than expected.
The 2023 NBA Draft is loaded with talent at the top. While Victor Wembanyama continues to receive the majority of headlines (and understandably so), the list of potential stars and, beyond that, potential contributors runs deep. That being said, which prospects could break into the lottery unexpectedly?
NBA Draft prospects who could unexpectedly end up as lottery picks
5. Rayan Rupert, G, New Zealand Breakers
A lot of lottery surprises generally come in the form of theoretical prospects — prospects who might not have a complete body of work, but whose physical profiles and hypothetical skill sets are too tantalizing for teams to pass up.
It's not difficult to imagine a team falling in love with Rayan Rupert. Playing for the New Zealand Breakers of the NBL, he missed time this season due to a wrist injury and was otherwise inconsistent. Even so, the physical tools leap off the page — he's a 6-foot-7 guard with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and fluid athleticism.
Rupert's defensive acumen is the root of his appeal. He's good at shooting the gaps or using his long arms to hassle ball-handlers and generate steals. He has a long way to go offensively, but there are flashes of pull-up shooting that will have scouts hooked. He needs to get better at finishing and handling physicality, but he did play against grown men in a notoriously physical professional league. College prospects can't say the same.
4. Dereck Lively II, C, Duke
Before the season, the idea of Dereck Lively getting picked in the lottery was commonplace. He's a five-star recruit who went to Duke; he's also a true 7-footer who can explode around the rim and alter shots with his 7-foot-7 wingspan.
Then came the season, and for a while Lively just looked lost. His youth shined through on the defensive end and he was far too limited offensively to make up that ground. Just a few months ago, there were real questions about whether or not Lively would crack the first round. Some thought he might even be a candidate to return to Duke for a second season.
All that came to an end in tournament play, however. Very few college players showed more in-season improvement than Lively. His awareness increased tenfold on the defensive end. He started to look like the monster defensive ace we were all advertised before the season, moving his feet in space and erasing advantages around the rim with his length.
Lively still has his fair share of limitations, especially on the offensive end. He doesn't have a deep bag of tricks in the post; he's mostly a lob threat right now. He also didn't always rebound at the rate one would expect for such a massive human. Even so, he has ample room for growth and a proven track record of getting better. Plus, the draft is frightfully short on true centers. Any team looking for a 7-footer who doesn't get Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick could be inclined to look Lively's way.
3. Leonard Miller, F, G-League Ignite
It's hard to deny the productivity from Leonard Miller. He averaged 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds for the G-League Ignite, frequently slashing to the rim and pressuring the defense with his unique blend of size, quickness, and finishing touch.
Listed at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Miller is another prospect whose physical tools simply pop. That is going to hold value for teams who prioritize upside. Miller has the potential to comfortably guard three, four, maybe even five positions in a given matchup, plus there's something inherently desirable about a big wing who can handle the ball and maybe shoot in today's NBA.
He has a long way to go in terms of defensive awareness and fundamentals, but Miller shows a promising competitive streak. He hammers the glass for rebounds and should be able to impact the game defensively in multiple areas, so long as he commits to doing so.
On the offensive end, Miller is supremely versatile. He's a skilled finisher who showed great promise working out of pick-and-rolls with Scoot Henderson. He can grab and go off of rebounds, pushing the tempo in transition and often locating teammates with the pass. The 3-point shot needs work — as does his decision-making — but he shows touch around the paint and there's plenty of time for him to grow at 19 years old.
2. Bilal Coulibaly, F, Metropolitans 92
Victor Wembanyama might not be the only player from Metropolitans 92 selected in the lottery come June. Bilal Coulibaly has been slowly but steadily gaining steam all season. The 18-year-old is one of the youngest players in the draft and he profiles as a potentially elite wing defender.
Again, measurements: Coulibaly is 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan. He's built strong with room to fill out his frame even further. He's an explosive vertical athlete, frequently skying for weak-side blocks or invading enemy airspace to secure offensive rebounds and generate second-chance opportunities.
He's not as advanced offensively as other lottery prospects, but Coulibaly has a respectable 3-point stroke and enough utility as a play finisher around the rim to get by while the rest of his skill set develops. He shows great promise exploding downhill for finishes, but he will have to make NBA teams respect his jumper to fully unlock his slashing ability.
Coulibaly is switchable and he gives consistent effort on the defensive end. On top of the blocks, he's excellent at shooting the gaps for steals. His awareness is fairly advanced for such a young player and he's going to put his imprint on the game by sheer athletic willpower.
1. Bobi Klintman, F, Wake Forest
Wake Forest's Bobi Klintman might be the hottest name in NBA Draft circles right now. The freshman only played 20.5 minutes per game for the Demon Deacons, averaging 5.3 points and 4.5 rebounds on 40.7 percent shooting. Those numbers don't exactly inspire confidence, but Klintman is perhaps the perfect embodiment of the "theoretical" prospect.
At 6-foot-10, Klintman plays and moves like a wing. He loves to push the ball up the floor in transition and he's a decent 3-point shooter already (36.8 percent on over two attempts per game). Big wings with ball skills are the premium commodity in today's NBA. Every team wants to embrace big, positionless basketball. Klintman needs time to develop, but there's a clear path toward fitting that supremely valuable archetype.
The primary concerns for Klintman lie on the defensive end. He has the size and length to guard bigs, but he's too weak to defend in the post and he's prone to getting left in the dust on the perimeter. He's also older than your average freshman, which could be notable for teams trying to determine his growth potential.
Klintman's limited athleticism also crops up on the offensive end. He can get out and run in transition, but he's more suited to a complementary role in the halfcourt setting. Wings with his shooting and passing potential have undeniable value, but Klintman doesn't regularly beat his man off the dribble, nor does he have advanced scoring moves to rely on around the basket. Even so, he checks a lot of hypothetical boxes that could have teams in the lottery thinking hard.
