This year's NBA draft class is full of potential All-Stars, but drafting any of the following five prospects could be a major mistake.
Victor Wembanyama is the best NBA Draft prospect in this year's class by a wide margin. He's a lock to be an impact player sooner than later for the San Antonio Spurs. The same can't be said for a lot of other prospects slated to go off the board in Round 1 of this year's draft.
The NBA still values potential over production in a big way. That allows players who struggled to really be stars at the collegiate level to establish themselves as lottery picks. It's easy to understand why teams take big swings for the fences in Round 1 but it's a strategy that can blow up in General Manager's faces.
The following five prospects all have a chance to become quality players, but they'll all be overdrafted where they are currently slated to be taken in Round 1. Buyers beware for prospects on this list.
Most overrated NBA Draft prospects: 5. Jordan Hawkins
Hawkins is riding high after a brilliant streak of play for UConn in the NCAA Tournament. Combine that with his status as one of this year's best shooters and it's easy to understand why NBA scouts are enamored with his potential.
The downside to Hawkins is that he's only capable of playing the off-guard spot at 6-foot-4. It's also possible his shooting ability is being overstated based on his high-profile run in his final collegiate season. He needs to be an elite shooter if he's going to be anything more than an average starter.
That makes taking him in the late Lottery a questionable choice by the team that pulls the trigger on Hawkins in Round 1. He has a high floor as a prospect but lacks the sort of star potential teams should be hunting for at that spot in the draft.
Most overrated NBA Draft prospects: 4. G.G. Jackson
Jackson enrolled at South Carolina as one of the most hyped prospects in his high school class. Unfortunately, his erratic play for the Gamecocks hurt his draft stock during his one season in Columbia.
There's still hope that Jackson can emerge as a quality NBA player due to his functional size and athleticism for the forward position. He measured just over 6-foot-8 at the NBA Combine and his wingspan of just under 7 feet gives him plenty of size to play as a power forward in the modern game.
Length has never been the issue for Jackson though. Decision-making and efficiency are major question marks for him heading into the pre-draft process. In the end, it's his long-range shooting that will do more to determine his NBA future than anything else. Shooting just over 32% as he did in college won't get it done for Jackson.
The hope is that Jackson has a lot of room to develop and it's true that he's one of the youngest prospects in this year's draft class. Selecting him at the bottom of Round 1 is an acceptable gamble by an enterprising front office but anything higher than that represents a serious miscalculation of his current stock.
Most overrated NBA Draft prospects: 3. Dereck Lively II
Lively heads into the draft with one unquestioned NBA skill. He is going to be an elite rim protector right away. He blocked a lot of shots at Duke and he'll be a serious shot-deterrent in the paint for his NBA team as well.
The question is what else Lively can do during the length of his rookie contract. He's a solid finisher via the pick-and-roll game but it's unclear if he can do anything else on the offensive end of the floor. That makes Lively well-suited to be a second-string center for a team with a clever point guard but that's a narrow place for him to land at the next level.
Much like the aforementioned Jackson, Lively's spot on this list depends heavily on where he's drafted. Anywhere in the 20s is an acceptable landing spot for the former Blue Devil. Reaching and grabbing him in the lottery would be a swing-and-miss for a player whose best-case scenario just isn't all that impressive.
Lively is a great bet to be a quality NBA rotation player, but he plays the least valuable position in the league. First-round picks shouldn't be spent on centers who can't be difference-makers on both ends. Lively's rudimentary offensive game makes him too much of a project on the offensive end of the floor.
Most overrated NBA Draft prospects: 2. Dariq Whitehead
If Whitehead didn't play his college basketball at Duke there's no way he would be in contention to be a first-round pick. It's not a lack that he'll go off the board in Round 1, but it appears some team will talk their way into his potential somewhere in the late-20s.
Whitehead shot the ball reasonably well during his single season in college, but scouts shouldn't buy into him as a premium shooter at the next level. He took a steady diet of easy shots for the Blue Devils and he really struggled to create any opportunities on his own.
He also lacks the size to really create physical advantages out on the wing. He might settle into the NBA as a bit of a tweener as a relatively small wing. His lack of size, combined with his questionable instincts could result in him being a hunted player on the defensive end early and often during his professional career.
Whitehead would be a nice gamble early in Round 2 but teams shouldn't be committing to him with a multi-year guaranteed deal as a first-rounder. He needs seasoning in the G-League before he's ready to take on meaningful NBA minutes.
Most overrated NBA Draft prospects: 1. Jamie Jaquez
Jaquez heads into the draft as a relatively big name after an accomplished collegiate career at UCLA. That's not enough to make the 22-year-old prospect a first-round pick.
That's old for a first-round prospect and means that Jaquez is close to fully formed as a player. He is a quality shooter from his forward position but his lack of athleticism is really going to force him to struggle on defense in the NBA.
It's also difficult to envision him being anything more than a spot-up shooter on the other end of the floor. He leveraged his basketball IQ and craft to become a quality playmaker for the Bruins, but solid defenders are going to overwhelm him at the NBA level.
Drafting a player whose ceiling is developing into a decent bench player is a recipe for disaster for NBA front offices. Jaquez doesn't have the upside to be considered as a solid pick in Round 1. There's a strong chance he hears his name called in the late-20s but that's going to be a wasted pick by the front office that selects him.
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