The NBA MVP race has been a pleasant mix of old and new in 2023, at least so far. There are still the well-worn frontrunners of Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, but the cases have never been stronger for potential first-timers like Luka Doncic.
In general, basketball is being played at a ridiculously high level across the league. The volume of legitimate MVP candidates — and moving further down the grape vine, the volume of viable All-Star candidates — is absurd. In any normal season, Anthony Edwards' breakthrough with the No. 1 seed Minnesota Timberwolves would make him a shoo-in for at least top-3 consideration.
Not in 2023. At least, not for now. There are surprising early-season contenders, such as the 10-5 Orlando Magic or the 11-3 Wolves. There are also expected powerhouses on the struggle bus, such as the 7-9 Golden State Warriors or the 6-7 Los Angeles Clippers.
Here's how the MVP race currently shapes up, with an attempt to consider all the dynamics at play — team success, individual proficiency, efficiency, team context, and so forth.
NBA MVP power rankings: Week 4
Honorable mentions: Stephen Curry, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James
The Indiana Pacers are 8-6 with the NBA's most explosive offense and an In-Season Tournament bid locked up. Rick Carlisle deserves a ton of credit, as do the ancillary pieces of the machine in Indianapolis. Myles Turner, Bruce Brown, and Aaron Nesmith have all been especially impressive in breakthrough roles.
But, the main catalyst for the Pacers' success is Tyrese Haliburton, who has skipped several steps on the escalator to stardom. He's locked in the MVP race, with no sign of slowing up. He's breaking the box score every night, leading the NBA with 12.3 assists per game while averaging only 2.6 turnovers. He is a paragon of efficiency, making a scoring leap with 25.3 points per game while pacing for career highs in the shooting department (.521/.462/.915). He's due for some regression eventually, but it's starting to feel like this is the new standard for Haliburton.
He has 15 or more assists in four of his last five appearances. In that same span, he has 13 turnovers — total. Haliburton has gone from a quick-thinking connective passer and spot-up shooter to a legitimately potent isolation threat, putting defenders on their back heel with subtle hesitation moves before scoring with immense touch and craft in the paint. His shot mechanics aren't always conventional, but he puts his length to tremendous use around the rim and he's a deadly pull-up shooter with deep range.
That, combined with his ability to process the game so quickly and elevate teammates, puts Haliburton very much in the conversation for MVP. His team is a couple games behind in the standings relative to the others on this list, but the Pacers can plainly hang with anybody. Haliburton is must-watch TV and a true superstar.
The Philadelphia 76ers have lost four of their last six after a red-hot start to the season, with their latest loss coming in part due to Joel Embiid's first absence of the season. Still, it's hardly time to panic. A tough niche in the schedule bears the bulk of the blame, and Embiid continues to produce at a gaudy level when he's on the court.
Embiid's shooting splits have been down relative to recent years (.497/.319/.877) but he's due to positive regression soon. He's leading the NBA in scoring once again at 31.9 points per game to go along with 11.1 rebounds and a career-high 6.1 assists. He still has the occasional turnover woe (3.7 per game), but Embiid has made noticeable strides as a passer in Nick Nurse's offense. The Sixers are actively cutting and Embiid is reading double teams better than ever.
The Sixers rank fourth in points per 100 possessions. Tyrese Maxey has earned his own fringe MVP buzz, but it's impossible to watch Philadelphia and glean anything other than the simple fact that Embiid is the sun around which the Sixers orbit. His two-man actions with Maxey are destroying defenses and he's a one-man scheme buster, demanding relentless attention in the paint and cracking fissures in the opposing defense.
On top of the offensive production, Embiid is playing his best defense in years. He's averaging 1.0 steals and 1.8 blocks, aggressively blanketing the paint and effectively navigating screen actions to put his massive frame in the opposition's way. The Sixers have a lot of quick hands around him, but Embiid empowers the likes of Robert Covington, De'Anthony Melton, and Jaden Springer to rack up deflections.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have officially arrived. There's every reason to believe the Thunder's current momentum will hold. At 11-4, OKC is second in the West with a top-five halfcourt offense and defense — the only such team in the NBA, per Matt Moore. That is a deep team with a ton of talent, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the obvious front man and a very serious MVP candidate.
Gilgeous-Alexander has ascended to a special level of individual offensive output. He is more than the central hub for OKC. He's a one-man wrecking crew, with a strong claim to the mantles of best driver and best isolation scorer in the league. At 6-foot-6, Gilgeous-Alexander has the length to evade traffic at the rim and the feather-soft touch to hit every manner of in-between shot. He's endlessly creative with his handles and constantly on the attack, leading the NBA with 20.9 drives per game and scoring 70.6 percent of his 30.4 points per game on drives. Gilgeous-Alexander is always in the paint, forcing the defense to collapse and generating countless advantages both for himself and for teammates.
He's averaging 6.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists to go along with the lofty scoring numbers, not to mention hyper-efficient .538/.358/.931 splits. He's a beast in the interior, but Gilgeous-Alexander can also skate around defenders for mid-range pull-ups or bury enough 3s to keep defenders honest. He's not the only playmaking arm in OKC's dynamic offense, but he's a damn good one.
Then, he's a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate as well, which is not common for a guard. SGA currently leads the NBA with 2.4 steals per game and he's tied for third with 3.3 deflections per game. He's a complete vacuum cleaner in passing lanes and he's plenty effective at the point of attack, swallowing ball-handlers with that 6-foot-11 wingspan. To carry the workload Gilgeous-Alexander does on offense while also playing elite perimeter defense is no small feat. He's a two-way superstar.
The Dallas Mavericks hit a tough part in the schedule last week, but a hard-fought victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday has the Mavs back on track. At 10-5, it's clear this Dallas squad is far better than last season's cruddy 11th-place team. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been resurgent off the bench, Derrick Jones Jr. and Grant Williams have been invaluable on the wing, and Dereck Lively's presence at the five has completely changed the dynamic of Dallas' frontcourt (hopefully he's okay after a hard fall in the Lakers game).
Luka Doncic has been on the MVP radar for a while, but the absurd production of Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has gotten in the way in recent years. Thankfully, he's only 24, so it's literally a matter of time (and team success). The Mavs are winning games at the moment, and while the big man triumvirate is far from fading, Doncic has put his stamp on the awards race early. He's a dude, through and through.
It's constantly mesmerizing to watch Doncic play. There are those who take issue with his ball-dominant style, but it's difficult to deny the results. He already has a conference finals under his belt and the Mavs currently boast the NBA's third-ranked offense. Doncic's on/off splits are a little wonky at the moment, but he falls in the 100th percentile for usage rate (38.6 percent) and virtually every Dallas possession runs through him when he's on the court.
The numbers leap off the page — 30.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.1 assists on .491/.408/.754 splits — as he's on track for his best 3-point shooting season to date. Doncic blends speeds incredibly well and possesses the bull-like strength to obliterate most defenders on drives to the cup. He has no trouble creating separation at every level and he can hit shots from anywhere on the court. Factor in the preternatural playmaking vision and the inherent benefit teammates derive from the pressure Doncic demands, and he's a legitimate MVP frontrunner.
The Denver Nuggets have lost a few difficult games without Jamal Murray, whose absence has been more deeply felt than initially expected. It's easy to feel like the Nuggets are a buzzsaw so long as Jokic is on the court (and they mostly are), but Murray is critical to sustaining the non-Jokic minutes.
That ultimately shouldn't cause much harm to Jokic's early MVP case. He's the best player on his team and the best player in the world. Denver is a respectable 10-5, with Jokic dominating in both the basic box score (27.5 points, 13.1 rebounds, 8.9 assists on .579/.303/.802 splits) and in the advanced categories (first in offensive and defensive box plus-minus, first in VORP, and first in win shares). The Nuggets are still a terrifying force with Jokic on the court and he possesses a singular ability to uplift teammates.
His shooting percentages are actually down a smidge relative to normal, but Jokic remains an efficient threat from all three levels. He's a beast in isolation (1.09 points per possession, the same as Joel Embiid) and he's the NBA's greatest connector, processing the game at light speed and firing quick, on-time, on-target passes from every angle. As soon as defenses collapse toward Jokic, he's five steps ahead, either mapping out an elegant pirouette into a finish or locating the open teammate. The comfort of Denver's personnel playing off of Jokic is stark. His teammates know when to cut and when to expect the ball, even in places no other NBA player would be able to find them.
The Nuggets will continue to weather the storm until Murray returns, with Jokic operating at absolute world-beater status. He is once again the MVP frontrunner. It's extremely rare for a player to win three MVP awards, but Jokic is special. He's an all-time great who deserves a ton of praise while he's still operating at his peak — a peak that very few players in league history have ever reached.
