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NBA Awards Rankings: Jokic vs. Embiid (again), plus Tyrese Haliburton's rise

2023-11-16 23:21
We are roughly one-eighth of the way through the NBA season. Here's how the NBA MVP rankings shape up, with the understanding that all is subject to change.
NBA Awards Rankings: Jokic vs. Embiid (again), plus Tyrese Haliburton's rise

The Houston Rockets have won six straight. The Los Angeles Clippers, since trading for James Harden, have gone 0-6.

Just as we all expected.

The NBA standings are a complete whirlwind at this point, especially in the West. There hasn't been a deeper conference in years. It still feels like 10 or 11 teams have the tools to compete for a postseason spot, maybe even more. The Clippers are going to figure it out eventually, the New Orleans Pelicans have to lean into Zion Williamson at some point, and the Phoenix Suns are — hopefully — getting closer to full strength.

In the East, it's generally the same old, same old. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers occupy the top of the standings. The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are tied for third, with a cameo from the similarly 7-4 Indiana Pacers. Once the Cleveland Cavaliers figure out how to win games, we should land somewhere close to preseason expectations.

As the standings begin to take shape, let's check back in on the MVP race.

NBA MVP power rankings: Week 3

Honorable mentions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Anthony Edwards, Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Pacers have the best offense in the NBA, posting a historic 122.0 offensive rating through 11 games. The defense occupies the opposite end of the spectrum, which Indiana will have to address if the goal is genuine contention, but the offense is crackling with live-wire explosiveness. A large portion of the credit belongs to Tyrese Haliburton.

As Rick Carlisle told reporters, Haliburton is "their guy." The Pacers are 7-4 with the look of a legitimate postseason team in the East. Haliburton has his share of defensive shortcomings, but it is borderline impossible to knock the offense. He recently became the first player to achieve 32 assists and zero turnovers over a two-game span. Nuts.

For the season, Haliburton is averaging 24.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 12.5 assists on .528/.436/.932 splits. He is the best point guard in the East, hands down, and he's quickly gunning for the No. 1 mantle overall. He's only averaging 2.1 turnovers per game, his lowest mark since he came off the bench for 38 games as a rookie. Meanwhile, he's on pace for career highs across the board, with a uniquely uplifting play style that materially impacts those around him for the better.

If the Pacers can learn how to defend, watch out. Haliburton's growth has been a treat to watch. Out of college, the concern was that he couldn't self-create on offense. Such concerns feel like a distant memory now. Haliburton continues to bomb pull-up 3s and attack the middle of the lane with a potent blend of craft and touch. His ability to change speeds and weaponize his length on finishes in the paint points to an impressive work ethic and his unbelievable arc of improvement.

The Golden State Warriors have hit a potentially major speed bump, losing their last four. Now, Draymond Green is slated to miss five games after placing Rudy Gobert in a headlock, and Curry is on the injury report with right knee soreness. He's expected to miss a few games at least, which could have unavoidable implications on the MVP race once next week's rankings come into focus.

For now, however, Curry remains locked in the top five for reasons the entire NBA world is thoroughly familiar with. There isn't a more impactful offensive guard in the NBA, still. At 35 years old, Curry is putting forth some of his best basketball to date. He's averaging 30.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on .488/.446/.930 splits.

Curry's success comes with a roster that, for the first time in a while, doesn't feel precisely calibrated to match his skill set. The lack of shooting between Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, and an ice-cold Andrew Wiggins has popped in a sorely negative fashion. Chris Paul's arrival has elevated the second unit (and removed some of the playmaking burden from Curry's shoulders), but Golden State has a few kinks to work out in a no-nonsense Western Conference.

Despite the Warriors' overall struggles, however, it's impossible to overstate the impact of Curry's efficient shooting and relentless off-ball movement. His usage rate is up slightly compared to last season, despite the CP3 factor, and his 139.4 points per 100 shot attempts lands in the NBA's 100th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. He is quite literally the most potent scorer in the NBA on a shot-for-shot basis.

The Dallas Mavericks are off to a 9-3 start, which stands in stark contrast to last season's 11th-place finish. Kyrie Irving is still settling into his role, but the marginal additions of Grant Williams, Derrick Jones Jr., and Dereck Lively II have completely revamped the team. Jason Kidd has ratcheted up the tempo, the defense looks respectable, and the Mavs have the feel of a genuine contender.

That should be the expectation, always, when you roster a player of Luka Doncic's caliber. With the exception of a rotten performance in Tuesday's loss to the Pelicans, there hasn't been much to nitpick with Doncic's output. He's averaging 30.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists on .502/.420/.761 splits with a typically robust usage rate of 34.3 percent. Even with Irving properly integrated on offense, Doncic is directing traffic.

He's not quite in the 'best player in the world' conversation just yet, but Doncic has been on a steady upward trajectory since he entered the league. His combination of absurd usage, combined with elite efficiency by even his standards (64.0 percent true shooting, a career high), should keep Doncic tethered to the MVP race all season.

It has never been an exact one-for-one comparison, but Doncic is truly the closest we will get to prime Houston-era James Harden. The Mavs' offense typically starts, and very often finishes, with Doncic sizing up the defense. He can use his bullish frame to penetrate the paint and finish at the rim, or he can bury the opposition in step-backs and pull-ups. He's shooting the ball better than ever, and the assist numbers remain impressive. The defense is a knock, as always, but not enough to keep Doncic out of the conversation.

The Sixers have lost a couple in a row after their eight-game win streak. Part of that is scheduling — a second-straight game against the Pacers on the first night of a back-to-back, followed by a matchup with the first-place Celtics the following night. Part of it is natural regression, both for Embiid and breakout star (and fringe MVP candidate?) Tyrese Maxey.

Minor setback aside, the Sixers are 8-3 despite noticeable roster flaws and the prominent departure of James Harden, who many considered a top-20 player as recently as last season. Embiid's numbers are off the chart — 31.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.7 blocks on .504/.308/.873 splits — and he is impacting the game more broadly than ever before.

The playmaking leap is real. It's a stretch to compare Embiid to the league's great passing bigs, but he is seeing the floor more clearly than in years past. He's making quick reads out of double teams and the Sixers are cutting effectively, affording Embiid more passing outlets when the pocket collapses. He's on track for a career-high in assists without a huge spike in turnovers, which is a positive sign of growth.

There's also a defensive factor at play. Embiid is playing argubaly the best defense of his career, partially spurred by Nick Nurse's demands for more "swings" on that end of the floor. Embiid still has to maintain the longview and preserve his body, but there are few more intimidating rim protectors in the NBA. When Embiid is actively patrolling the paint and covering ground at his current level, it completely changes the approach for opposing offenses.

Nikola Jokic is the NBA equivalent of Thanos. The man is inevitable.

The Denver Nuggets are 9-2 with the best record in the West, despite the ongoing absence of Jamal Murray. Denver is 7-0 at home, with the NBA's fifth-best offense and the sixth-best defense. Jokic generally gets a ton of credit on offense, but he deserves a shout on defense too. He averages 3.4 deflections per game, eight most in the league, and he's fifth in total deflections on the season.

Jokic's quick hands and razor-sharp instincts cut both ways. He doesn't defend terribly well in space, but he's not a complete stiff either. He can wall off the paint with his hulking 284-pound frame and he gets his arms in passing lanes all the time. It's a borderline strength, not a negative.

Then, of course, there's the offense. Jokic is, without much debate, the NBA's most individually impactful offensive player. He earns that label because he does so much to elevate teammates. Jokic is hovering in triple-double territory again — 30.0 points, 13.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists on .579/.327/.803 splits. His shooting numbers are actually down relative to last season, but expect a spike back in the right direction eventually. In the meantime, he leads the NBA in total field goals and rebounds. Often lambasted by a certain subsection of the NBA fanbase for his "analytics" dominance, the counting stats are more robust than ever for the two-time MVP.

Denver appears poised for another long reign atop the Western Conference standings and another deep postseason run. There's a lot of basketball left to be played, but even with Murray on the bench, the Nuggets have mostly outclassed their opponents. Jokic is a offensive code-breaker, using his strength as a battering ram in the paint and exploiting every small fissure with precisely-calibrated passes.

He's that dude, and he's still No. 1 in the MVP race.