MLB Rumors: Yankees reportedly concerned about Cody Bellinger's hard-hit rate
The New York Yankees don't appear to be making the massive changes that fans expected them to after they missed out on the playoffs for the first time since 2016. What has been known, despite Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner defending their operation, is that the team is interested in a variety of free agents, some of them the top names available. One name they have frequently been linked to is Chicago Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger.
New York needs two outfielders, which Cashman stressed amid his rant to reporters at the General Manager Meetings. Bellinger would slot in center field. Another plus is that Bellinger bats left-handed, something the Yankees need. But as it turns out, the Yankees are seemingly concerned over one area of his game.
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Yankees are concerned about Bellinger's hard-hit rate. Here is what Heyman writes in a recent column.
"The Yankees like free agent Cody Bellinger, but some Yankees people are worried about his hard-hit rate even after his brilliant season," writes Heyman. "He seems like the perfect fit as an excellent center fielder who bats lefthanded and hit .306 after a couple rough injury years. But some analytics apparently work against him (my thought: hard-hit rate favors guys who whiff, aka Joey Gallo, not Bellinger, who hit .279 with two strikes by putting the ball in play)."
Hard-hit rate, per MLB.com, is "the percentage of batted balls that were hit at 95 mph or more." The league website says that a batter will have better production after hitting over 95 mph.
This past season, Bellinger ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate with a 31.4 rating, per Baseball Savant. Bellinger's average exit velocity was 87.9, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The Yankees' analytics department has been heavily ridiculed, especially this season. Superstar outfielder Aaron Judge said of the department that it's possible the Yankees are looking at the wrong numbers. Could prioritizing hard hit rate be one of them? Who's to say. But Heyman does point out in the quote above that hard hit rate favors a player like Joey Gallo who notably flopped in less than two years with the Yankees, where he batted below .200.
Even with Bellinger's low hard-hit rate, he was a very productive batter for the Cubs. The outfielder recorded a .307 batting average, a .356 on-base percentage, a .525 slugging percentage, 26 home runs, 95 runs, 97 RBI, 153 hits, 87 strikeouts, and 40 walks in 499 at-bats.
Will the Yankees overthink things and pass on probably the best centerfield option available this offseason? We'll have to find out.
MLB Rumors: Cardinals expected to land a top free-agent starting pitcher after Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signings
The St. Louis Cardinals entered this winter needing three starting pitchers due to their trades of Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline and Adam Wainwright's retirement. Early on this offseason, the Cardinals filled two spots in their starting rotation, but it didn't really excite the fanbase.
First of, the Cardinals signed former Los Angeles Dodgers starter Lance Lynn to a one-year, $11 million contract, which includes an $11 million club option for 2025. Then, the team signed former Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $12 million contract, which includes a $12 million club option in 2025. Cardinals fans weren't exactly thrilled and leaping in the air with joy after these signings. But there's some hope for fans to be excited.
The Athletic's Jim Bowden answered questions about the Hot Stove season in a mailbag column. When asked about whether the team will trade for Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber due to their belief they could be outbid for the remaining top starting pitchers available in free agency. Bowden says that while he could see the team trading for a starting pitcher, he also believes there's a chance they could sign one of the top free-agent starters.
"I think there is a chance they could outbid the competition for a top free-agent starter. I also think they have enough depth on their roster and in their farm system to trade for a strong starter," writes Bowden. "The Cardinals have signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson but now need to address the top of their rotation. They'll be an intriguing team to watch during the Winter Meetings in Nashville."
As of this writing, one of the top aces left the open market is Aaron Nola, as he re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million contract. The Cardinals were reportedly interested in Nola in free agency.
The Cardinals have also been linked quite frequently to Sonny Gray of the Minnesota Twins. Gray had been consistent during his two years with the team, recording a 2.90 ERA, a 1.139 WHIP, 300 strikeouts, and 91 walks in 303.2 innings pitched (56 starts).
While the team has Lynn and Gibson on the roster, they are still expected to make a run at some of the top arms available.
MLB Rumors: Reds named surprise possibility for Dylan Cease trade
One of the teams that has been open for business this offseason is the Chicago White Sox. This past season, the team fired executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn after another disappointing year. Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf promoted Chris Getz to be the new general manager for the White Sox and has made a major move already in trading relief pitcher Aaron Bummer to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake, and Riley Gowens.
Perhaps Chicago's next big trade piece is starting pitcher Dylan Cease. The 27-year-old could command the White Sox quite a bit, considering he is under team control for the next two seasons. So, which team will make the offer the White Sox can't refuse?
The Athletic's Jim Bowden answered fans' questions about the offseason in a column, and one fan gave an opinion that the Cincinnati Reds should acquire Cease from Chicago and asked what minor-league package, along with infielder Jonathan India, would it take to secure a deal. Bowden likes the idea of Cease going to the Reds and offered right-handed pitcher Ty Floyd.
"...a Cease trade to the Reds makes a lot of sense. How about India and right-hander Ty Floyd for him? The White Sox have to make that trade," writes Bowden. "Floyd, 22, was a first-round pick (No. 38) in this year's MLB Draft after dominating at LSU. The White Sox control Cease for only two more years. They'd get their long-term solution at second base with India and a starter with similar upside to Cease but many more years of team control. Maybe the Reds would have to throw in a kicker too, but there is a deal to be made here."
Floyd was selected by the Reds earlier this year with the 38th overall pick in the MLB Draft. In his three seasons playing for the LSU Tigers, Floyd recorded a 4.17 ERA, a 1.166 WHIP, 229 strikeouts, and 74 walks in 175.0 innings (55 games, 27 starts).
As for India, he has been floated as a potential trade candidate due in part to the number of young infielders they have on the roster, notably Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, and Noelvi Marte. This season, India recorded a .244 batting average, a .338 on-base percentage, a .407 slugging percentage, 17 home runs, 61 RBI, 78 runs, 111 hits, 109 strikeouts, and 52 walks in 454 at-bats (119 games).
Cease is coming off a 2023 season in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.418 WHIP, 214 strikeouts, and 79 walks in 177.0 innings (American League-high 33 starts).
With the Reds narrowly missing out on the postseason this year, they are in a position to make a splash. Bringing in Cease could be just what they need.
