Shohei Ohtani was heading for a free agency frenzy following the 2023 season with contract talks likely to begin at half a billion dollars.
But after it was announced that a UCL injury will keep him off the mound for the rest of the season and could require Tommy John surgery, the equation has changed.
Buster Olney of ESPN reported that teams may now look to pay Ohtani as a position player exclusively, with incentives bolstering whatever contract he receives on the pitching side. He was previously looking at $500 million and more as a two-way player. Now he's looking at something closer to $350 million.
"The numbers are going to come down dramatically," Olney said.
While that's bad news for Ohtani, it might be good news for the dark horse teams pursuing him.
No. 3 team that can suddenly afford Shohei Ohtani: Baltimore Orioles
If declaring yourself "America's Team" wasn't inherently obnoxious, the Orioles would be America's Team. They're young, they're fun and they're headed for big things.
They have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball as well, but they're also not interested in rising up those ranks. So while they were an intriguing option as a trade partner for the Angels ahead of the MLB trade deadline, the idea they'd get involved in the free agency fracas was always slim.
What about now though?
Not only is Ohtani's contract value cut down by the injury, but the number of years he's likely to agree to on this deal will also shrink. Baltimore wouldn't have to completely change their ethos to add him to a lineup that's already ahead of schedule and looking to contend. He could be the final piece.
The bigger issue for the Orioles is convincing Ohtani to come to Baltimore, which isn't likely to be high on his list of MLB cities to move to. Still, if he wants to win, he could do worse.
No. 2 team that can suddenly afford Shohei Ohtani: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have something the Orioles and many other Shohei Ohtani suitors don't have: Seattle.
The West Coast locale gives the Mariners a leg up when enticing Ohtani to join them. The Japanese star reportedly favors West Coast living. He apparently looked hard at joining the Mariners in the first place before signing with the Angels. And now the financials are coming into place for Seattle along with geography.
Like Baltimore, Seattle was a hot name in the Ohtani trade rumor mill. They're about to be one in the free agency rumor mill as well.
The Mariners are below the league average in terms of payroll even after signing Julio Rodríguez to a long-term deal. They have the room to give Ohtani what he wants, especially if other teams are scared off by the injury situation.
The cooling of the market only favors a team like Seattle, which can offer Ohtani the creature comforts he desires as well as the chance to win with a young core. The Mariners are already contending for the AL West even without Ohtani. Pairing him with Rodriguez would be a dream come true.
No. 1 team that can suddenly afford Shohei Ohtani: Los Angeles Angels
It's kind of funny how an injury to Shohei Ohtani is the thing that could save the Angels.
Los Angeles was already in deep trouble in terms of making the playoffs this year after going all-in at the trade deadline. Then they completely fell off a cliff. Considering how Ohtani wants to play for a contender, it was not a good sign for the team's free agency pursuit of their two-way star.
The injury is an opportunity for the Angels on two fronts. First, Ohtani may be more open to a short-term deal to stay in Los Angeles while he proves that he's still a generational player. The Angels could get a second chance to show him that they're serious about winning baseball games with him in the lineup.
Second, owner Arte Moreno just spent the last few weeks staring into the abyss knowing that Ohtani would likely leave the team at the end of the season. He should be more motivated than ever to do whatever it takes to keep Ohtani in place.
Olney pointed in that direction with his reporting as well. Losing Ohtani's pitching arm may be a detriment to the Angels' 2023 season, but their positioning in the free agency conversation just got a lot beter.
