With the MLB All-Star Game less than two months away, it's time to start thinking about potential rosters.
With the MLB season over one-fourth of the way complete, it's time to start thinking about the symbolic halfway mark of the season: the All-Star Game. While the starting lineup is fan-voted, the reserves and pitchers are compiled by the coaching staff, led by Rob Thomson for the NL, and Dusty Baker for the AL. With personal biases and fan voting, they will not compose a perfect roster. If you wanted to make the most perfect possible roster (although never roster will truly be perfect), one solution would be using WAR: Wins above replacement
As said by FanGraphs, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is defined as "an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic".
It is essentially measuring how many wins a player can be valued for on their own. For example, Aaron Judge in 2022 had 11.5 Wins above replacement. If he were replaced by a replacement-level player (which currently is defined as a player that contributes 17.5 runs fewer than the league average through 600 PAs), the Yankees would have had close to 12 fewer wins than they had. As with most advanced metrics, there is a negative end of the axis to measure negative impact.
Some quick notes and disclaimers:
- Stats accurate as of the Morning of May 25th
- Shohei Ohtani is unfortunately not going to make the list because he does not lead in pitching or hitting even though he will 100 percent be an American League All-Star
- Lineups 1-9 are ordered by WAR
- The Benches are ordered by position. The bench in the all-star game is one backup per position.
- The Bench does not have a DH
- There are 12 pitchers. First 9 are starters, last 3 relievers.
With that being explained, let's look at the American League roster first, starting with the Starting Lineup.
The American League All-Star roster if decided only by WAR
AL Lineup:
1. 2B Marcus Semien: 2.4 WAR
2. RF Aaron Judge: 2.1 WAR
3. 3B Matt Chapman: 2.1 WAR
4. SS Wander Franco: 2.1 WAR
5. SS Wander Franco: 2.1 WAR
6. LF Josh Lowe: 2.1 WAR
7. CF Luis Robert: 2.1 WAR
8. DH Yordan Alvarez: 2.1 WAR
9. 1B Yandy Díaz: 2.0 WAR
10. C Jonah Heim: 1.8 WAR
This lineup comes with multiple new faces, as five of the nine in the lineup would be first-time all-stars. After a disappointing 2021 by Marcus Semien, he leads the way for the AL WAR leaderboards with his 139 OPS+ and .490 SLUG on the year. Aaron Judge is picking up right where he left off in 2022, as he still possesses an OPS above 1.000. He could have had an even higher WAR if he didn't have his short IL stint earlier in the month.
Moving down the list of 2.1 WAR hitters, Josh Lowe might be the guy you know the least about. He's slugging .681 with a .983 OPS thus far. 41.3 percent hard-hit rate and 14 percent barrel rate will certainly get you an all-star nod. The second-year Rays outfielder has made a great jump from a mediocre 2022.
Another Ray on this list, corner IF Yandy Diaz has been one of the most undervalued and underrated hitters in baseball. If you are a frequent visitor of Baseball Savant, you would faint at how good his page is. He is second in the league in average exit velocity (Judge first), sixth in hard hit percentage, and possesses a .322 batting average. One possible source of his low popularity is his low launch angle. You don't hear of him a lot because he doesn't hit home runs. The hard-hit balls from Diaz have an average launch angle of 9.3 degrees. That will limit him to a lot of worm burners and low-line drives that stay on the same eye level as fielders. Regardless, he's hitting the ball so well that he doesn't need the long ball to make an impact.
The AL lineup has a combined 18.8 WAR, and that is not even considering the bench
AL bench:
C Adely Rutschman: 1.4 WAR
1B Anthony Rizzo: 1.8 WAR
2B Taylor Walls: 1.4 WAR
3B Jose Ramirez: 1.4 WAR
SS Bo Bichette: 2.0 WAR
LF Randy Arozarena: 2.1 WAR
CF Mike Trout: 1.8 WAR
RF Cedric Mullins: 2.1 WAR
If I were to compare the bench lineup to the starter's lineup, I would say the bench would beat the starters every time. The bench has many more household names than the starters.
The one non-household name here is second baseman Taylor Walls. For those who are unfamiliar with Walls, he is a low-end young backup middle IF that Tampa primarily used to replace Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe when they were hurt. He has had a small sample size but has made an impact, with a .866 OPS and 7 home runs. However, he probably won't be an all-star, as he's only had 155 plate appearances, and that will not fly with Dusty Baker.
The bench gives a total of 14.0 WAR. Only 2 less than the starters (with DH voided).
Pitchers (9 starters, 3 relievers)
1. Nathan Eovaldi: 2.4 WAR
2. Kevin Gausman: 2.3 WAR
3. Sonny Gray: 2.2 WAR
4. Joe Ryan: 2.1 WAR
5. George Kirby: 1.9 WAR
6. Framer Valdez: 1.9 WAR
7. Logan Gilbert: 1.7 WAR
8. Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.6 WAR
9. Luis Castillo: 1.6 WAR
10. Yennier Cano: 1.5 WAR
11. Carlos Estévez: 0.9 WAR
12. Trevor Gott: 0.8 WAR
With very few household names like last year, the pitching staff is still loaded with talent. Nathan Eovaldi proved many wrong while showing the Texas Rangers that he is worth the $17 million a year the Rangers paid for him. Pitching to a 0.97 WHIP, he's been great at producing soft contact with his breaking pitches, which reflects in statcast giving him an xBA of .227, which would be the lowest of his career.
While most people know Sonny Gray for imploding with the Yankees, he actually is a really good pitcher, with a great arsenal. His sweeper is moving 18 inches horizontally and dropping 48 inches. To get that much movement on both axes makes it such a deadly pitch for Gray. All of his breaking balls have run values under -2, which also makes his fastball really good.
With a combined 20.9 WAR, it's a stacked lineup of arms. Although not everyone is a household name, all of these pitchers have been ultra-effective. Now let's see how that compares to the National League.
The National League All-Star roster if decided only by WAR
LINEUP:
1. CF Ronald Acuña Jr: 2.5 WAR
2. C Sean Murphy: 2.5 WAR
3. 1B Freddie Freeman: 2.3 WAR
4. RF Mookie Betts: 2.1 WAR
Tied-5. SS Thairo Estrada and Xander Bogaerts: 2.0 WAR
6. LF: Juan Soto: 1.7 WAR
7. 2B Nico Hoerner: 1.6 WAR
8. 3B Jeimer Candelario: 1.2 WAR
9. DH Paul Goldschmidt: 2.1 WAR
Making this list, I saw how many world-class shortstops would not be all-stars just because they are all in the NL. The NL shortstop snubs include Nolan Gorman (1.9), Dansby Swanson (1.8), and Francisco Lindor (1.5).
What's even weirder considering the middle infield situation is that 3B is so shallow that I had to dig down a lot for Jeimer Candelario down at forty-first best in the National League.
Sean Murphy has been killing it since his trade to the Braves. He's in the 99th percentile of all hitters in wOBA at .408, and statcast actually projects him to be at .439. Just goes to show how a change of scenery can drastically change people.
The NL starters have a combined WAR of 18.0. Now let's stop and look at the bench.
NL Bench
C Will Smith (LAD): 1.7 WAR
1B Owen Miller: 1.3 WAR
2B Tommy Edman: 1.1 WAR
3B Max Muncy: 1.1 WAR
SS Geraldo Perdomo: 2.0 WAR
LF Brandon Nimmo: 1.6 WAR
CF Corbin Carroll: 1.7 WAR
RF Juan Soto: 1.7 WAR
This list has less flashy names, but a lot of production here. Most of these players I believe don't exactly deserve an All-Star nod, but a few players here do. A combined total WAR of 12.2, this is much weaker than both the starting lineups and the AL bench. A lot of players here I feel are not worth talking about, since there's nobody that really deserves it.
Geraldo Perdomo is another interesting case. He's in the bottom 10 percentile of exit velocity stats, hard hits and barrels, and wOBA, but he walks a ton and has 3 OAA. His OPS is up there at the top of the league at .932. With a .413 OBP and .519 slugging, it seems like he is just outperforming the advanced metrics. He is a contact hitter who rarely whiffs and has a great eye. It seems like he just knows his role and body, which allows him to do the things he's doing. I would take this with a grain of salt, as he is just barely over 100 At bats on the year.
Now let's finalize the NL roster with the pitchers.
NL Pitchers:
1. Zac Gallen: 2.8 WAR
2. Spencer Strider: 2.0 WAR
3. Mitch Keller: 1.8 WAR
4. Zack Wheeler: 1.8 WAR
5. Justin Steele: 1.8 WAR
6. Clayton Kershaw: 1.6 WAR
7. Michael Wacha: 1.2 WAR
Tied- 8. Dustin May, Bryce Elder, Merril Kelly: 1.2 WAR
10. Matt Strahm: 1.2 WAR
11. Alexis Díaz: 1.1 WAR
12. David Bednar: 0.9 WAR
There's one player on this list that is leading the way by a mile, Zac Gallen. He is absolutely dealing. WHIP at 1.02, wOBA at a career-low .250. He's lowered the walks, has better zone command, and he's made a difference. Easily a Cy Young candidate.
Justin Steele has also improved mightily. He's jumped to the top 10 percent of the league in soft contact and the top 15 percent in barrels and wOBA. A 1.09 WHIP and 6-1 record will certainly earn him a nod.
Who would win the 2023 MLB All-Star Game if only determined by WAR?
Taking all things into account, lineup, bench, and pitching, the NL would just barely get the win over the AL. The Nl has a total WAR of 55.3, while the AL would have 53.7 WAR. And for bookkeeping, Ronald Acuña or Sean Murphy would win the All-star MVP award.
