The Miami Marlins have won four straight games to move into second in the NL East, and they have their ace, Sandy Alcantara, on the mound on Friday to take on the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants enter this series on a three-game winning streak, pulling them ahead of the San Diego Padres for third in the NL West.
Alcantara won the Cy Young Award last season in the NL, but he has struggled out of the gate in 2023, posting a 1-4 record and 4.91 ERA across eight starts. He takes on Anthony DeSclafani (3-3, 3.06 ERA) on Friday night.
Can Alcantara get back on track for the Marlins in this matchup?
Here are the odds for this game and my best bet:
Marlins vs. Giants odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Giants prediction and pick
I think there is positive regression coming for Alcantara, whose ERA has been hurt badly by two outings this season.
On April 10, he was rocked for nine runs in four innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is coming off an outing where he gave up six runs in 7.2 innings against the Cincinnati Reds.
However, his Fielding Independent Pitching is 3.65, over a run lower than his ERA this season. He's still striking out batters at a high rate as well, he's just allowed 48 hits this season, which is a little uncharacteristic after his 2022 campaign.
The Giants are a middling offense, and I think this is a spot where Sandy can bounce back. I also like the Marlins' bullpen (4.27 ERA) a lot more than the Giants (5.54 ERA) this season.
DeSclafani has given up eight runs over his last two outings, so it's possible he starts to regress while Alcantara improves. I'm going to take the better pitcher as an underdog in this spot every time.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
