The Philadelphia 76ers are once again at an impasse with their star point guard. With training camp on the horizon and James Harden trade talks at a standstill, let's power rank the potential outcomes for Philly from "let's just skip the season" to "not complete agony."
The Philadelphia 76ers can't catch a break. It's partially their own doing, of course. If the Sixers really wanted to keep James Harden around, they could've paid him. Getting cheap in negotiations was probably the logical move, but this was always a possibility. Harden expected to be rewarded for the pay cut he took last season and Daryl Morey balked. It's not hard to understand why the former MVP is a bit hurt given their relationship over the years.
Now, the Sixers must chart a path forward through familiarly foggy waters. Harden has demanded a trade and, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic, he has no intention of showing up to training camp. Ask Harden's agent, however, and he's going to show up next season in the best shape of his career. Those two outcomes feel mutually exclusive.
Philadelphia ended Harden trade talks on Saturday and plan to bring Harden into training camp, or at least ask him to come in. If Harden takes the Ben Simmons route, well — that's a bring we will all cross very reluctantly when it arises.
Of course, Harden has never been afraid to get uncomfortable in trade standoffs. He has a remarkable amount of recent experience in the area. He sandbagged his way out of Houston and then Brooklyn. Is Philadelphia next?
Let's rank the potential outcomes, as unpleasant as they all may be, to figure out what exactly Philadelphia can hope for here.
Let's just skip the season: James Harden holds out, Ben Simmons 2.0
Let's say Harden really does hold out. There will be the unavoidable ugliness of Philadelphia enforcing fines, taking away his paychecks, and talking halfheartedly to the media about "hoping James comes back and is ready to compete." And frankly, it would just be sad. This doesn't happen to any other franchise. It can't happen twice in a three-year span to Philadelphia, right?
Camp holdouts are commonplace in the NFL, but it hasn't quite become commonplace in the NBA yet. Stars are gaining more and more executive power every year, but Harden would be plainly in breach of his contract. Unlike Simmons, who had an actually justifiable reason for holding out and taking time to himself, Harden's holdout would read as a pure leverage play.
For the Sixers, this is the absolute hell-on-earth scenario. Harden's trade value is already in the tank and he's not coming back next summer. Even desperate teams at the trade deadline probably won't shell out top value for a 33-year-old who hasn't played competitive basketball for half a season. Especially not one with Harden's track record of injuries, underperformance, and off-court leisure.
This leaves Philadelphia will very little to do but trade Harden for pennies on the dollar before the February trade deadline. That's probably the endgame regardless, but this would basically ensure that the Sixers don't have enough competitive cohesion to accomplish anything of note. It's a wasted year of Joel Embiid's prime and another indictment of the franchise's inability to operate without drama and disarray.
Let's get it over with: James Harden arrives at camp in poor spirits
This feels like the most probable outcome. Harden, instead of sacrificing paychecks, shows up to camp and puts on a faux brave face. He sulks around reporters, openly half-tries in drills, inspires a few incendiary Nick Nurse quotes, and goes into the regular season with a very plain between-the-lines message: I don't want to be here.
From a pure vibes perspective, this is probably worse than the previous option. The Philadelphia fanbase is pretty much done with Harden and the general nonsense around this team. He would get booed relentlessly at every home game, especially if his performance isn't up to par (it won't be). It would frustrate Embiid, Nurse, Morey, the entire organization. This is probably Harden's surest way off the team if that's ultimately his goal.
That said, this does truly ensure that Philadelphia won't get anything of value for Harden. Any hope of rebuilding his trade value is probably fool's gold, but this would drive the nail in the coffin. No team watching Harden sandbagging for the third time in four years is going to want to pay anything close to market price for his expiring contract. The Sixers would be angling for Robert Covington and second-round picks at this point. That would be a poetic chaser to the Jimmy Butler saga, honestly.
Harden doesn't have the ire of his teammates (read: Joel Embiid) the same way Ben Simmons did. Embiid and others have actively lobbied Harden to stick around. How long that brotherhood lasts once Harden shows up and starts actively tanking the team around him, we shall see. It would probably get very ugly, very fast. Embiid is unafraid to post cryptically on Twitter (sorry… X) and tiptoe around harsh criticism in pressers.
Not complete agony: James Harden commits to one last run
There's a lot at stake personally for Harden with this trade request. He opted into the final year of his contract because the free agent market didn't materialize how he wanted it to. James wants one last big contract to sail off into the sunset with. That's totally understandable and completely justified for such an accomplished player.
Let's keep it real, though. Nobody wanted to pay Harden this summer. Why would it be any different next summer? The only way Harden can guarantee a sizable new contract is to show up and perform. He could bet on a trade (and a strong second half of the season with his new franchise), but that's a huge risk. Daryl Morey is notoriously stingy. He isn't going to give into a Harden trade unless it categorically benefits Philadelphia, or at least keeps the team's head above water.
Right now, no such offers are on the table. If Harden holds out or pouts around training camp, odds are those offers won't materialize. The way Harden can best improve his own stock contractually — while also getting Morey to a place where he's happy with the offers coming back — is to show up in the best shape of his life, like his agent keeps broadcasting. If Harden shows up and shows out, trade offers will materialize eventually.
Philadelphia may even keep him past the deadline at that point, focused on one last run at glory. That probably won't end well given the team's track record and the fanbase would operate in firm opposition to such a strategy, but the Sixers are capable of clearing over $60 million in cap space next summer. There's a chance Morey's big plan is to bring Harden back, let the last year of his deal play out, and then hit free agency in search of different stars.
The Sixers are title contenders with James Harden. Maybe not in the upper tier of contenders, definitely not favorites of any kind, but it's impossible to count out the best offensive duo in the Eastern Conference. Embiid and Harden stress defenses in fathomless ways and Maxey is due for another leap. Nick Nurse is a great coach with a much more recent track record of winning big games than Doc Rivers. There's something to be said for accepting the unfortunate circumstances, biting the bullet, and putting together one final run with the current group. Morey would probably be fine with that outcome. There's a more than decent chance Embiid never plays with another player of Harden's caliber in Philadelphia ever again.
Might as well milk it.
