The NBA Finals matchup is set!
The No. 1-seeded Denver Nuggets have home-court advantage against the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat, who are looking to become the first No. 8 seed to ever win an NBA Finals.
Miami isn't a typical No. 8 seed, as the team was the top seed in the East last season but dealt with injuries throughout the 2022-23 campaign. Miami knocked off the two NBA Finals favorites, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics, on its way to the Finals this season.
Denver has had a long layoff after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, but the team is in a great spot at home, where it has yet to lose this postseason. The Nuggets went 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season, one of the best marks in the NBA.
Health is always a key in the playoffs, and the Heat have weathered the storm without guard Tyler Herro in the lineup. However, he seems to be eyeing a return in this series, which would give the team a major offensive boost.
With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy this season, the Nuggets have shown just how good they can be when at full strength. They're also looking to make history in this series, as the Nuggets have never won a title in franchise history.
Denver is heavily favored in this series, but Miami has dominated in the underdog role all playoffs. Here's how I plan on wagering on this series (although I do have a Denver to win the Finals ticket at +1800 already).
First, let's break down the series odds for the 2023 NBA Finals:
Heat vs. Nuggets series odds
Heat vs. Nuggets correct score (Exact outcome odds)
- Nuggets in 5: +265
- Nuggets in 7: +310
- Nuggets in 4: +380
- Nuggets in 6: +400
- Heat in 6: +750
- Heat in 7: +950
- Heat in 5: +2000
- Heat in 4: +3500
Heat vs. Nuggets series prediction
The Heat joined the 1999 New York Knicks as the only other No. 8 seed to make the NBA Finals, but I don't see them becoming the first one to win a title.
As good as the Heat have played in this postseason, they have also thrived in road environments, winning three games in Boston, two games in Milwaukee and one in New York.
That's going to be a much tougher task against Denver, who is a perfect 8-0 at home in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
The Nuggets' playoff run has been equally if not more impressive than Miami's as the team has showcased dominance against quality opponents such as the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.
Among playoff teams this season, Denver ranks:
- First in offensive rating
- First in net rating
- First in rebounding percentage
- First in assist to turnover ratio
- First in true shooting percentage
- First in turnover percentage
Yeah, that's pretty damn good.
The Nuggets have the shooting to compete with Miami's role players that have played extremely well to this point, mainly forward Caleb Martin. Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all shooting above 35.0 percent from beyond the arc this postseason.
That's not even mentioning Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who have hit some clutch shots despite shooting lower percentages.
The Heat obviously have star power of their own in Jimmy Butler, but he's cooled off a bit after a dominant series against the Bucks. Miami is going to need Gabe Vincent, Martin, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry to shoot the ball at a high level to compete with this Denver team, and even that may not be enough.
Jokic has been the most dominant player in the playoffs, and he's thrived against Heat big man Bam Adebayo in recent seasons.
The Lakers couldn't contain Jokic with an elite defender in Anthony Davis, and now Adebayo is giving up several inches of height to the two-time MVP. I don't doubt that Erik Spoelstra will make adjustments, but the zone that has been effective for Miami may not be against Denver since it has so much shooting.
Ultimately, the Eastern Conference Finals showed two things for me.
Miami can compete with any team in the league, but the team is also extremely vulnerable if Butler doesn't go off, or if role guys don't shoot well. The team needs both things to happen to win games, especially against a high-octane offense like Denver.
After watching the Heat blow three straight games to Boston, I can't help but back the Nuggets in this series. I won't discount Miami and say this series is over in four or five, but I do think the Nuggets avoid a Game 7.
Denver in 6. Nikola Jokic wins Finals MVP. Book it.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
