Stripped of their spine, Newcastle face an uphill battle to rescue Champions League campaign
It is a big game, but then they all are now for Newcastle. By Christmas, they will have played Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, AC Milan, Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund twice each, and Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Brighton once apiece. The definition of a major match can shift according to reason, to the quality of the opposition – despite the size of their fanbase and stadium, Newcastle may not have been underlined on the fixture list by the elite during their wilderness years – but the sight of the massive Signal Iduna Park is another reminder they are back in the big time now. Whether they remain there in spring is still to be determined. Dortmund may have always been the biggest game of perhaps the biggest week thus far for Newcastle – a triple header of Manchester United, Arsenal and last season’s Bundesliga runners-up – but Eddie Howe’s side arrive in Germany having proved masters of brinkmanship. Short of players, but high on spirit, they are looking to complete a famous hat-trick. In four days, they could have exited the Carabao Cup and been distanced from the Premier League’s top four; instead, they overcame United and Arsenal. Now for the side who inflicted their only defeat in their last 12 matches. Three points would put Newcastle on course for the knockout stages. “Every game is a must-win,” said Howe. “The term is probably overused in football.” And if he was right to note that too much of the language can be hyperbolic – certainly some was at St James’ Park on Saturday – a setback could be very damaging. With a trip to Paris next, defeat in Dortmund could mean Newcastle are out of the Champions League after five games. Howe will have to navigate the rest of the group stage without the symbolic hero of their demolition of Paris Saint-Germain. Dan Burn’s aerial ability brought a goal then, but he landed awkwardly on his back after going up for a header on Saturday. “A long-term problem, a couple of months is a speculative number,” said Howe. “He has been gigantic for us.” It was not just a reference to Burn’s height and, with Matt Targett out for around three months, Newcastle are now short of left-backs. They were already missing the spine of a side, in the flagship signings Sven Botman, Sandro Tonali and Alexander Isak. With Burn, Targett and Harvey Barnes absent as well, Newcastle are shorn of players who have cost more than £200m of their £400m outlay in Howe’s reign. Big numbers have given way to small ones. Newcastle have too few players. There was no room in the Champions League squad for Emil Krafth and Matt Ritchie, two fit players. Selection could be a process of elimination. “You just see who is fit and who is available,” Howe said. “The games have come at a cost.” Nor is there much respite for the overworked. “The problem we have is a lot of the injuries are on a longer-term scale, which means there’s no relief coming around the corner,” he said. The last men standing will have to carry on running for quite some time. It is something depleted groups managed to do against United and Arsenal. But, deprived of some of the players who brought stardust, Newcastle feel still more reliant on hard work. Certainly, it is harder to outclass teams. And, while a 4-1 scoreline against PSG was spectacular, otherwise Newcastle are yet to score. The statistics are explained in part by the toughness of a pool without a minnow who can be thrashed but of the 32 teams in the Champions League, so far Newcastle have the third-lowest expected goals and the fourth fewest shots. They rank fourth from bottom for completed passes and have had the third-fewest touches. Only three goalkeepers have made more saves than Nick Pope; of those who have played two or more games, only one has a higher save percentage than his 86.7; as he is Dortmund’s Gregor Kobel, it could add to a struggle to score. They drew a blank at home two weeks ago and the realist in Howe was apparent when he reviewed Dortmund’s victory at St James’ Park. “It was a tight game but they deserved to win,” he said. The sense is the rematch could be tight; so, too, the pool. At the start of the competition, Opta’s predictive statistics gave Newcastle a 54 per cent chance of qualifying from Group F. Halfway through it, their supercomputer now thinks there is a 54 per cent likelihood they will go through. That said, Opta gave Newcastle a 78 per cent chance of a top-two finish before the defeat to Dortmund two weeks ago. It could shape up as the pivotal result of their European campaign. And yet, as Howe is very aware, there are worse problems than being deprived of key players for a marquee match against one of Germany’s great clubs. Wednesday marks the second anniversary of his appointment. Dortmund were not on his agenda then. “The vision was short-term. It was, can we stay in the Premier League?” he recalled. Now the question is whether Newcastle can stay in the Champions League. Read More Sporting director Dan Ashworth believes Newcastle are on ‘an upward trajectory’ How Anthony Gordon became central to Newcastle’s Champions League hopes Arsenal lose unbeaten start as Newcastle keep their heads in the battle of St James’ Park
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Three wins from 10 games and just 13 goals scored. Rewind almost a month and the Premier League campaign had started in bleak fashion for Chelsea; the critics were loud from some sections over Mauricio Pochettino’s lack of a quick impact, highlighted all the more by Ange Postecoglou doing exactly that a few miles further north. Yet even with a misfiring front line there had occasionally been hints of what this team could be: the beginnings of partnerships, a few players starting to settle, standing out, finding their form. In a team which has been ripped up and effectively started anew over the last year, cohesion between individuals is everything to rebuilding a style and a successful approach. Pochettino has been hampered there, too, by injuries and absences, imbalances and those who arrived before him not reaching the level hoped of them. Now, two matches later and with eight goals scored across them – including four in that chaotic, eternally watchable draw with Man City just prior to the international break – there is not just intangible reason for optimism, but quite clear on-pitch alterations which show Chelsea should be far higher than the 10th place they currently occupy. Nicolas Jackson’s confidence has been boosted by his hat-trick at Tottenham. Raheem Sterling – perhaps the best way of hitting back at being left out continually by England – has been electric, leading Chelsea’s attack by example and producing crucial final-third contributions. And then there’s Cole Palmer, who cost up to £42m and has played only 28 top-flight matches, but who has already forced his way into the Three Lions squad, Pochettino’s best XI and the forefront of Chelsea fans’ minds when considering how they’ll return to the top. Yet the best is unquestionably still ahead and the player who might be Chelsea’s best link, spearhead and quite possibly best player overall has yet to play a single minute – but Christopher Nkunku’s English adventure is about to begin. Quite aside from his fitness and sharpness levels after almost four months on the sidelines, there are a couple of questions about how Pochettino will fit the former RB Leipzig man into his lineup. An all-round attacker, he played everywhere from an offensive midfielder to an in-from-out wide man and a central No 9 in the Bundesliga, while his time with the French national team has also been across the width of the front line. Where he looked at his best was perhaps as a free-roving centre-forward, able to be a box presence but also contribute enormously to the team’s build-up play, but one doesn’t necessarily directly translate to the other given the differences between Leipzig’s at-times chaotic and fully-committed transition attacking play, and Pochettino aiming to give Chelsea’s approach more structure, more consistency, more dominance. Jackson’s purple patch and ability to lead the line could mean that as well as reducing how quickly Nkunku is called upon, he will act best as part of a two-man attack when opposition quality allows. From Pochettino’s current team, that most likely means that one of the midfield triumvirate of Conor Gallagher, Enzo Fernandez or Moises Caicedo is removed from the fold. But if it’s unlikely that happens too often, too soon, then Nkunku’s versatility may quickly make him Chelsea’s biggest tactical weapon as well as possibly their most potent one. His ability to attack from all areas of the final third means the manager can pick and choose how to play him, whether it’s a game for midfield solidity, for Palmer’s impetuous creativity or for Jackson’s constant foraging behind the defensive line. Occasionally it may be a game for all three, of course. But Nkunku’s combination of ball-carrying, ability to pick a pass and propensity for finding the back of the net – with 16 goals he joint-top scored in the Bundesliga last term – means that, once fit, he’ll almost certainly be the man for all solutions, all gameplans, all opponents. Chelsea may find that his return is a timely one. Of course, the team as a whole finding more form and cohesion, and more of the self-belief which comes from these, could itself lead to an upturn in fortunes. But so too might their upcoming fixture list, despite looking relatively tough on the face of things. Newcastle, Brighton, Manchester United and Everton – with only the Seagulls visiting Stamford Bridge in that run – looks a difficult three weeks or so to navigate. But the Magpies will head into Saturday’s game short due to injuries and with just two wins in six, plus a crucial trip to PSG following three days later. Minds, as well as team selections, might not be 100 per cent geared towards the league encounter. Brighton have themselves struggled for fluency of late, with just two wins in 10 dating back to late September, while the less said about consistency and cohesion the better regarding Erik ten Hag’s team this season. There are chances here, then, for Pochettino to pick up not just points but positivity and progression – up the table and with regards to finding his most favoured regular team. Chelsea’s squad and spending alike should insist upon a much higher position in the table. 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