We’ve made it to the first set of bye weeks and with it, a crucial reflection point for the fantasy football season.
If you’re sitting at 4-0 or 3-1, good work! You still want to win Week 5, but I wouldn’t cut players on a bye or those who’ve started slowly just to take a swing on someone this week.
But if you’re at or below .500?
This is borderline must-win territory.
It sounds crazy, but starting 2-3, 1-4, or 0-5 puts you in a serious hole. Assuming you need roughly eight wins to make the postseason, starting 2-3 means you’d have to win at least six of your remaining nine regular-season games.
That’s tough.
Now, with bye weeks underway and a number of stars on the cusp of returning from injuries, there’s still time to make up ground.
That’s what I’m here for.
Every week I’ll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Anthony Richardson (IND)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
— Justin Fields (CHI)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX) has not been the quarterback you drafted him to be so far, but I’m optimistic he turns things around this week. Lawrence ranks in the top 10 in success rate (49.0%) and expected completion rate (67.2%), but he’s been hurt by the second-most dropped passes (nine). Buffalo’s defense allows the second-lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.43), but the Bills will be traveling to London (where the Jaguars have been for more than a week) with Tre’Davious White out and both Jordan Poyer and Christian Benford questionable.
— Jared Goff (DET) was efficient in Detroit’s win over Green Bay last week, but scored only 12.4 fantasy points. Things should improve in Week 5. Goff has been much better at home with the Lions and field-stretcher Jameson Williams is set to make his season debut. Detroit has the fourth-highest implied team total (26.75) of the week, so there should be plenty of chances for Goff to put up numbers. He’s a low-end QB1.
— Kirk Cousins (MIN) finished as the QB22 (11.6 points) in Week 4 after three straight top-10 performances to start the season. The Chiefs’ defense is solid, but they showed cracks in New York and gave up 19.2 fantasy points to Zach Wilson. Minnesota has the third-highest pass rate over expectation (3.9%), and its Week 5 matchup has the highest total of the week (53.5). Play Cousins with confidence.
— Jordan Love (GB) struggled in Green Bay's Week 4 loss, taking five sacks and throwing two interceptions. But he completed a season-high 63.9% of his passes and scored his second rushing touchdown in as many weeks to salvage his fantasy day. With at least 19.5 points in every game this season, Love is a borderline must-start against a Raiders defense giving up the eighth-most fantasy points (20.4) and the third-highest EPA per dropback (0.14) to opposing QBs.
— C.J. Stroud (HOU) has scored 20-plus fantasy points in three consecutive games. A lack of rushing work limits his upside, but Stroud is quickly establishing one of the more consistent floors in the league. He’s a volume king thanks to the Texans running the eighth-most plays per game (68.3), and he subsequently ranks second in passing yards per game (303.0) and fifth in air yards (313.3). Atlanta is a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, setting up Stroud for another strong week.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Sam Howell (WSH) impressed last week, completing 70.7% of his passes, racking up 290 yards, and scoring 19.6 fantasy points. After getting sacked 14 times over his past two games against Buffalo and Philly, Howell should have an easier time in Week 5 against the Bears. Chicago has the lowest sack rate (1.4%), allows the second-highest EPA per drop-back (0.37), and gives up the second-most fantasy points (22.1) to quarterbacks. That’s more than enough to have Howell in as a fringe-QB1 with serious upside.
— Daniel Jones (NYG) has struggled. There’s no way around it. Aside from his 31.7-point outburst in Week 2 (a majority of which came in the second half), Jones has been held under 11 fantasy points in every game. While last week’s 10-sack, two-interception performance felt like the low point of his season, Jones still finished with 10.7 fantasy points thanks to 66 yards rushing. This week, Jones takes on a Dolphins defense giving up the third-most fantasy points (21.8) to quarterbacks, so you can do a lot worse given the rushing upside.
— Brock Purdy (SF) is one of the safest quarterbacks in fantasy at this point. He completed 20 of 21 passes last week and has yet to throw a pick on the season. Fantasy-wise, he’s finished 10th, 23rd, 13th, and 11th among quarterbacks through four weeks. A tough matchup with Dallas limits his ceiling in Week 5, but if you’re looking for a guaranteed 15 points, Purdy's your guy.
— Matthew Stafford (LAR) is cooking. A lack of touchdowns (three) has kept him under wraps in fantasy, but Stafford is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in football right now. He ranks in the top 10 in EPA per drop-back (0.08) and aDOT (8.4) en route to leading the league in air yards per game (348.2). The potential return of Cooper Kupp should further aid his Week 5 stock against an Eagles secondary allowing the seventh-most fantasy points (21.1) to quarterbacks.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Joe Burrow (CIN) has struggled so far this season. Through four weeks, Burrow has the seventh-lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.28), the sixth-lowest passing success rate (38.4%), and a whopping 33.5 fantasy points. Yes, 33.5 fantasy points in four games. Regardless of the matchup, I can’t get myself to start Burrow until he starts to resemble his former self.
— Dak Prescott (DAL) hasn’t been bad in real-life football, but I’m beginning to doubt that he’ll be a fantasy starter this season. Despite a 68.0% expected completion rate and 0.08 EPA per drop-back, Prescott comes into this week’s matchup with San Francisco as the QB22, averaging 13.9 points per game. He’s not pushing the ball down the field at all (5.7 aDOT), and that’s translated to 194.6 air yards per game. There just isn’t enough upside against a stingy 49ers defense to justify starting him this week.
— Russell Wilson (DEN) has actually been really good in fantasy, coming into Week 5 as the QB9 with 19.9 points per game. Still, he’s generated a shaky 44.4% passing success rate despite facing three of the league’s seven worst defenses in terms of EPA. Things get a whole lot tougher in Week 5 when the Jets’ D comes to town. New York held Patrick Mahomes to 15.2 fantasy points last week, so I don’t see much upside with Wilson.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Saquon Barkley (NYG) (questionable)
— Kyren Williams (LAR)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— David Montgomery (DET)
— James Cook (BUF)
— D’Andre Swift (PHI)
— De’Von Achane (MIA)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Aaron Jones (GB)
— Alvin Kamara (NO)
— Jonathan Taylor (IND) (questionable)
— Brian Robinson (WSH)
— James Conner (ARI)
— Isiah Pacheco (KC)
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Breece Hall (NYJ) is showing signs of life. Hall scored just 8.4 points last week, but he broke off a 43-year run that looked a lot like his big plays from Week 1. Most encouraging, Hall has put distance between himself and Dalvin Cook. Hall’s played at least 45% of snaps two weeks in a row and continues to get around a 10% target share. The Broncos have allowed the second-highest EPA per carry (0.09) and by far the most fantasy points per game (41.0) to running backs, priming Hall for a breakout in Week 5. Consider him an RB2 with upside.
— Raheem Mostert (MIA) disappointed following his 41.7-point outburst, but what did you expect? The 31-year-old was never going to be the only fantasy-relevant back in Miami, though it is a little concerning that Devon Achane played 65.5% of snaps to Mostert’s 41.4% last week. Even with Jeff Wilson Jr. eligible to return from IR, Mostert will still have a role. Even a handful of chances in Miami’s offense is good enough for FLEX consideration against a Giants defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs (22.3) ... just don’t expect another 40-point game.
— Dameon Pierce (HOU) has delivered back-to-back RB2 performances the past two weeks as he continues to establish a strong role in an ascending Houston offense. Pierce played a season-high 58.0% of snaps last week in a positive game script, rushing 24 times for 81 yards. He doesn’t have much of a role in the passing game (7.2% target share), but he’s averaging nearly three red zone rushes per game and is the clear No. 1 back on a team averaging the eighth-most plays per game (68.3). Atlanta is one of the five-best run defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed (11.5) and EPA per carry (-0.21), but Pierce’s volume gives him a solid floor.
— Khalil Herbert (CHI) had his first 100-yard game of the season last week and racked up his most fantasy points (20.2) since Week 3 of 2022. Perhaps most relevant for fantasy was how he dominated the Chicago backfield. Herbert and Roschon Johnson appeared to be in a 50/50 split heading into the week before Herbert played 78.6% of snaps, had 18 rushes, and commanded a 15.6% target share. That usage, coupled with his matchup with the Commanders (0.01, eighth-highest EPA per carry), sets up Herbert for another strong outing in Week 5.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) was not a fun player to roster last week. Gibbs’s managers watched as David Montgomery received 12 of Detroit’s 13 red zone rushes, scoring three touchdowns. Overall, Montgomery edged Gibbs in snap share (69.9% to 38.4%), rush attempts (32 to 8), and fantasy points (33.1 to 7.1). Even if he’ll never be a three-down back, Gibbs’ role is going to continue to expand as the season goes on — right? A 14.2% target share gives Gibbs a relatively stable floor this week against a Panthers D allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (27.5) to running backs. Still, he’s best used as a FLEX.
— Alexander Mattison (MIN) had some concerning usage in Week 4. With Cam Akers active for the first time, Mattison played a season-low 65.9% of snaps (compared to Akers’ 31.8%) and had a season-low 5.6% target share (compared to Akers’ 11.1%). He still finished with 17 carries (to Akers’ five), but Akers already appears to be cutting into his workload. There’s still value with Mattison as a FLEX or low-end RB2, but I’m not thrilled about his matchup with the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points (12.5) to running backs and the seventh-lowest EPA per carry (-0.17) overall.
— Miles Sanders (CAR) played through an injury to get 13 rushes and three targets, though he played a season-low 42.6% of snaps and was limited to 4.7 fantasy points. A lackluster Carolina offense is concerning, but you won’t find many guys with as much guaranteed volume as Sanders. Detroit is pretty stingy against the run, so there isn’t much upside, but at the very least his 15.3% target share gives him a decent floor. He’s an uninspiring FLEX this week.
— Gus Edwards (BAL) dominated the Baltimore backfield in Week 4 even with Justice Hill back from injury. Edwards played a season-high 70.9% of snaps, had 15 rush attempts and even had three targets. We’ve seen Edwards have fantasy value in the past and if he’s going to continue to be the lead back, we’ll have to bump him into weekly starting consideration. For now, he’s best used as a FLEX or desperation RB2 against a middle-of-the-pack Steelers run defense.
— Zack Moss (IND) is a question mark in Week 5. If Jonathan Taylor suits up, I’m not sure how you start Moss unless you’re truly desperate. However, if Taylor sits, Moss becomes a must start — though temper expectations either way against a Titans front allowing the second-lowest EPA per carry (-0.25) and the fifth-fewest fantasy points (12.0) to running backs.
— Tyler Allgeier (ATL) has had his snap share drop every game since Week 1 — down to a measly 26.3% last week — but a big part of that is game script. The Falcons have struggled the past two weeks, and Allgeier isn’t much of a passing-down back. He’s still averaging more red zone rushes per game (2.3) than Bijan Robinson (1.3), so there’s some bounce-back potential in a game where Atlanta is favored. Houston has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs (23.0), so there are worse options for your FLEX.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren (PIT) both were productive in Week 4, but that came against one of the worst run defenses in the league. They’ll face a much tougher test this week when they take on the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the third-lowest EPA per carry (-0.22). There is little chance I’m starting either of these two this week.
— Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) are interesting potential options with Javonte Williams (hip) banged up. Perine (45.8% of snaps) had more work, but McLaughlin (17.9 points) was more effective. Any running back with volume has potential in fantasy, but I don’t see it with either of Denver’s backs this week. The Jets have an above-average run defense, and I’m not expecting much offense despite Denver’s 23.0-point implied team total.
— Dalvin Cook (NYJ) has had his snap share fall every week this season, down to 24.6% in Week 4. He’ll be lucky to play ahead of Michael Carter (29.8% snap share) at this point, and there isn’t any kind of upside for a third-string back in this Jets offense. Cook is an easy sit in fantasy and can be dropped in standard-sized leagues.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Davante Adams (LV)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— Cooper Kupp (LAR) (questionable)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
— Terry McLaurin (WSH)
— Puka Nacua (LAR)
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— D.J. Moore (CHI)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— Deebo Samuel (SF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Zay Flowers (BAL) has already established himself as an every down player just four games into his career. Flowers played 98.2% of snaps last week and had 100% route participation for the second consecutive week. He’s still looking for his first touchdown, but has led the team in target share (23.5%) even since Mark Andrews returned. The Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, priming Flowers for his best fantasy day yet. He’s a low-end WR2, but a great WR3 or FLEX.
— Romeo Doubs (GB) was one of our top waiver wire targets for a reason. Doubs has had his snap share climb every week of the season, up to 88.7% last week. Even with Aaron Jones and Christian Watson active, Doubs had his highest target share (38.2%) of the season against Detroit. He’s quickly established himself as Jordan Love’s go-to guy and is a borderline must start against a Raiders defense allowing 30.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
— Christian Kirk (JAX) has been the Jags’ wide receiver to roster the past three weeks. After struggling in Week 1, Kirk has turned in three consecutive top-25 performances. He doesn’t have a very high ceiling with all the playmakers in Jacksonville, but Kirk’s 28.8% target share the past three games makes him worth starting — even in a tough matchup with Buffalo.
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) has found the end zone three games in a row and, consequently, finished as a top 20 wide receiver in two of those weeks. He’s getting a 15.2% target share over that span, but if Buffalo continues to average 41 points per game, that’s more than enough volume for Davis to have fantasy relevance. Davis won’t catch a touchdown every game, but his 17.2 aDOT makes the targets he does get incredibly valuable. Ride him while he’s on a roll.
— Marquise Brown (ARI) is looking like one of the bigger steals of the draft. “Hollywood” is commanding a 26.4% target share this season while playing 92.0% of snaps. With Josh Dobbs looking better than expected, Brown is teetering on weekly-starter status. The Bengals have been pretty uninspiring this season, putting Brown into the WR3 or FLEX conversation.
— Adam Thielen (CAR) is the clear No. 1 option in Carolina. After getting just 6.5% of targets in Week 1, Thielen has commanded at least a 24% target share each of the past three weeks. Detroit is solid on defense, but the Lions let Green Bay rack up fantasy points in garbage time last week. With the Panthers coming in as a heavy road underdog, Thielen should be busy in what projects to be a pass-heavy game script. He’s a low-end WR2 and a solid FLEX.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Jakobi Meyers (LV) has a pretty neutral home matchup against the Packers this week, but his fantasy stock is dependent on Jimmy Garoppolo’s health. Meyers had just 10.5% of targets with Aidan O’Connell under center but was at 31.4% in two games with Jimmy G. If Garoppolo is cleared, Meyers should be in lineups. The Packers haven’t been especially impressive against the pass, and Meyers plays almost every snap. However, if O’Connell starts again, you can probably find someone better.
— Christian Watson (GB) had a pretty quiet debut, but salvaged his night with a late touchdown. Watson played only 45.3% of snaps, so there is some concern that he could still be on a pitch count this week. Even with reduced snaps in Week 4, though, he had four targets (third on the team), and his touchdown upside is enough to warrant FLEX consideration in a matchup with the Raiders this week.
— George Pickens (PIT), perhaps more than any other Steelers player, has had his fantasy value suffer from his supporting cast. Pickens plays almost every down (90% snap rate) and paces the team in both target share (23.4%) and air yard share (35.0%) but has reached double-digit fantasy points just once this season. Regardless of who’s under center, Pickens can be best viewed as a low-floor, high-ceiling FLEX against a decent Baltimore secondary.
— Robert Woods and Tank Dell (HOU) are the Texans receivers you want this week. The two were outshined by Nico Collins against the Steelers, but both still played more than 70% of snaps and actually ran more routes than Collins did. Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell is one of the best outside corners in the game, so I’m not expecting much from Collins. However, the Falcons have struggled covering from the slot — where Woods and Dell split time last week. Woods offers a higher floor between the two, but Dell’s ceiling is massive. Both are fine FLEX plays in Week 5.
— Jordan Addison (MIN) has now failed to catch a touchdown in two consecutive weeks and has subsequently fallen off the fantasy radar. Addison actually had his snap rate drop to 56.8% last week, and he logged only one target with Minnesota struggling to generate offense. It’s hard to trust Addison given the usage, and Kansas City presents a tough challenge with its talented secondary. Still, his upside warrants FLEX consideration in what could be a shootout.
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) hasn’t been very impactful for fantasy, but he’s been valuable on the actual football field. Despite coming in as the WR50 (7.7 points), Hopkins has the second-most first-down catches on third down (eight) and is commanding 29.0% of targets. He clearly has a big role on this Titans team, but his fantasy stock is limited to certain matchups with Tennessee throwing at the sixth-lowest rate over expectation (-4.9%). Indy has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points (35.1) to receivers, so if you’re ever trusting Hopkins in your lineup, this is the week.
— Jahan Dotson (WSH) showed signs of life in Week 4, even if he wasn’t very efficient. He turned nine targets into just four receptions, but notably caught his first touchdown of the season. Dotson has been limited in practice this week, so monitor his status leading up to Thursday night. That said, I’m probably starting him if he’s good to go. The Bears have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points (30.2) to receivers and the second-highest EPA per drop-back (0.37), putting Dotson and his 22.4% target share in a position to capitalize if he’s active.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Nico Collins (HOU) bounced back from struggling in Week 3 and now has two top-five finishes in the past three weeks. However, he’s essentially getting the same snap (67.7%) and target (21.2%) shares as Robert Woods and Tank Dell with the only real difference between the three coming with touchdowns. I’m expecting fantasy production to continue to flip-flop between the three wideouts depending on the matchup — a bad omen for Collins with A.J. Terrell (PFF’s 28th-graded cornerback) on a roll after locking up Calvin Ridley last week.
— Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy (DEN) aren’t receivers I’m looking forward to starting in Week 5. Sutton has hovered around double-digit fantasy points every game this season, but he’s racked up only 216 yards and is due for some touchdown regression after three scores in the first four weeks. Jeudy still hasn’t found his footing after missing Week 1, and he doesn’t have a game with greater than a 20% target share. The two combined for a disappointing 16.9 points against Chicago’s secondary, so I can only imagine the struggles they’ll have against a Jets defense coming off its best game of the season.
— Tutu Atwell (LAR) is a real wait-and-see this week. If Cooper Kupp is active, I’d be hard-pressed to start someone who is, at best, LA’s third option in the passing game. That said, if Kupp remains sidelined, Atwell is a fine FLEX option. Philly has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (36.5), and although he just had his worst game of the season (4.9 points), Atwell was still on the field for 78.2% of snaps and garnered a 21.1% target share.
— Drake London (ATL) scored in London because, well, of course, he did. London continues to post strong metrics — playing 86% of snaps last week and leading the team with a 23.3% target share and a 37.0% air yard share. You’d think that usage plus a score would’ve resulted in a big fantasy day, but, alas, London finished as the WR31 (10.3 points). That’s just life for pass catchers in Arthur Smith’s offense. Atlanta continues to pass at the lowest rate over expectation (-10.1%), and I’m not anticipating that to change against a Texans defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game (19.7) to wide receivers.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Sam LaPorta (DET)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
— George Kittle (SF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Jake Ferguson (DAL) is blossoming into a consistent fantasy option before our eyes. Ferguson had his best game of the season last week, catching all seven of his targets for 77 yards en route to a TE6 finish (11.2 points). There’s still room for him to grow in the red zone, but that 18.7% target share has my attention. The 49ers are a tough matchup, but I don’t expect his volume to go away — it could actually increase with him serving as Dak Prescott’s safety valve. He’s an easy TE1.
— Darren Waller (NYG) had another disappointing week, but it’s hard to place the blame on him. The Giants offensive line was consistently overmatched in the loss to Seattle, and Daniel Jones barely had time to look in Waller’s direction. Better days will come for Waller, perhaps as early as this week. Miami has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends (10.3), and Waller is still hovering around a 20% target share. Unless you snagged LaPorta or Ferguson off waivers, I’m not sure how you’re benching Waller this week.
— Dallas Goedert (PHI), like Waller, has not lived up to expectations this season. However, unlike Waller, Goedert’s woes have nothing to do with a lack of team success. Philly is one of the best teams (and offenses) in the NFL, but there is a price to be paid for having so many good skill position players: target volume. Goedert has had a 20% target share in two games this season, but is under 12% in the other two. Still, he has more upside than anyone lower on this list, and I’m starting him against a Rams defense that gave up 25.7 points to Indy’s tight ends last week.
— Zach Ertz (ARI) is under-rostered and a clear top streamer this week. Arizona’s offense looks better than expected, and Ertz is a huge part of that. Through four weeks, Ertz is playing 70.9% of snaps and commanding a 24.8% target share. What more do you want? Sure, a touchdown would be nice, but that should come soon enough considering his 33.3% red zone target share. That amount of guaranteed volume would warrant a start itself, but he’ll further benefit from playing a Bengals D allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (12.6) to tight ends. He’s the rare tight end I’m excited to start in Week 5.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) is an interesting case and a lot of his fantasy value this week depends on Cooper Kupp. Higbee has commanded a larger piece of the LA passing game each week of the season, up to 28.9% last week. He’s still looking for his first score of the season, but that could very well come this week against an Eagles defense allowing the third-most fantasy points (13.2) to tight ends. That said, if Kupp is active, there is no way I’m risking a limited outing from Higbee. I need to see what LA’s offense looks like with Kupp on the field before I trust Hibee alongside LA’s top playmaker.
— Tyler Conklin (NYJ) is one of my favorite under-the-radar tight ends this week. Conklin has played 76.7% of snaps and commanded an 18.5% target share over the past three weeks. He’s the TE12 over that span and is coming off his best game of the season. With Zach Wilson looking surprisingly pretty good last time out, Conklin caught four of six targets for 58 yards. If Wilson plays well again this week, Conklin could feast against a struggling Broncos defense, one allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (12.8) to the position.
— Cole Kmet (CHI) had 85 yards and a pair of scores last week. Kmet has been hovering around a 20% target share all season, and there’s never been any question about his playing time. If this Bears passing resurgence is legit, he’s going to be a weekly starter. Personally, I need to see it for more than one week and against someone other than the Broncos. Kmet is a risky play against a Commanders defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (3.7) to opposing tight ends.
— Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox (BUF) are stuck in the toughest timeshare you can find: a tight-end timeshare. They’re both playing around 60% of snaps for the season — not nothing in such a potent offense. If there was just one of them in Buffalo, that one would be a weekly starter, but we have to play the matchup game with both in the lineup. The matchup is great this week as Jacksonville has given up the second-highest target rate (22.8%), the seventh-most yards per route run (1.53), and the second-most fantasy points per game (13.9) to tight ends. Kincaid had a 20% target share last week, so I prefer him to Knox, but either of Buffalo’s tight ends is a fine option this week.
— Hunter Henry (NE) served as New England’s leading receiver last week, securing four of five targets for 51 yards. He hasn’t had a red zone target since catching touchdowns in both Weeks 1 and 2, but that says more about the Patriots offense than Henry’s role. He’s commanding just a 15.1% target share, so I’m not going to be thrilled to start him against a stout New Orleans defense, but Henry is a proven touchdown threat — good enough to warrant starting consideration in a pinch.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Kyle Pitts (ATL) isn’t even the best fantasy tight end on his own team anymore, that title belongs to Jonnu Smith. While Smith makes for a decent streamer, I’m not looking to start either tight end on a team passing at the lowest rate over expectation (10.1%) in the NFL. I’m not ready to cut Pitts yet, but we aren’t far off.
— Dalton Schultz (HOU) had his best fantasy game of the season last week, finishing as the TE5 (11.7) thanks largely to his first touchdown of the season. That said, Schultz still had only three targets and is hovering around a 12% target share for the season. He’s a touchdown-or-bust option — just like nearly every other tight end — but without any kind of consistent volume. Easy sit.
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