Kudos if you started De’Von Achane (49.3 half-PPR points) last week.
There aren’t many of you, but for the handful that did, he single-handedly won you your week.
The same goes for Raheem Mostert (41.7 points).
Basically, if you had anyone on the Miami Dolphins (70 actual points) you were in a pretty strong spot to win your Week 3 fantasy matchup.
That said, week-winning performances weren’t solely reserved for Dolphins.
Keenan Allen (36.5), Davante Adams (35.7), and the Buffalo D/ST (32) all delivered performances that surely had fantasy managers smiling (or, if you played against them like me, weeping).
Entering Week 4, we can finally start to get rid of preseason narratives and projections in favor of the actual in-season data.
Even so, it can be difficult to think rationally about the underperforming players you spent a lot of draft capital on, or to know whether your hot waiver add is legit.
But don’t worry.
I’ve got you covered.
Every week, I’ll be listing every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though, the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
— Justin Herbert (LAC)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Kirk Cousins (MIN)
— Joe Burrow (CIN)
— Anthony Richardson (IND) (questionable)
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Daniel Jones (NYG) struggled last week and now has struggled twice in three weeks. Still, those two games came against two of the best defenses in the NFL, and he was the QB1 (31.7 points) the one week he didn’t play Dallas or San Francisco. Jones’ rushing upside gives him a huge floor, while his matchup — Seattle is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game (20.6) to quarterbacks — gives him a big ceiling. He’s a fringe QB1 with top-five upside.
— Jordan Love (GB) almost has to be a starter in good matchups going forward. Through three weeks, Love slots in as the QB4 (22.9 PPG) in fantasy, notably ranking sixth in EPA (expected points added) per drop-back (0.10) and first in aDOT (10.4) despite being without Christian Watson and only having Aaron Jones for one game. With both playmakers expected to play this week, Love is well-positioned to extend his streak of 20-point games against a middling Lions defense that has lost C.J. Gardner-Johnson and James Houston.
— Geno Smith (SEA) has bounced back from a poor opener to average 312.0 yards and a 57.5% passing success rate across his past two games. He only finished with 16.4 fantasy points in a game Seattle scored 37 points, but they had two scores on the ground and kicked five field goals. Geno is again a high-floor option in Week 4 against a Giants defense allowing the third-highest EPA per drop-back (0.27) and generating the second-lowest pressure rate (26.8%).
Tier 3: On the fence
— Justin Fields (CHI) did this last season, too. Through the first three weeks of last season, he’d amassed just 31.4 fantasy points, 297 passing yards, and 97 rushing yards. This year he’s at 43.9 fantasy points, 526 passing yards, and 109 rushing yards. Fields’ matchups have been pretty tough thus far, playing the fourth-, 13th-, and 14th-best defenses in terms of EPA per drop-back. This week’s foe, the Broncos, rank 32nd (0.46) and just gave up 350 yards and five touchdowns on the ground last week.
— Brock Purdy (SF) is a machine in coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense. I don’t care what he would look like on another team: he’s on the 49ers. For fantasy purposes, that alone vaults him into starting consideration. Through three weeks, Purdy slots in as the QB13 at 17.3 fantasy points per game. Purdy likely won’t win you a week, but against a below-average Arizona secondary, he certainly won’t lose it for you.
— Deshaun Watson (CLE) looked a lot better last week, but I still have reservations about throwing him into my starting lineup. He completed 81.8% of his passes for 289 yards — both of which were the highest marks he’s achieved since joining the Browns. While we won’t complain about 21.2 fantasy points, it came against the Titans secondary, and interestingly, he only had 234.2 air yards despite otherwise strong numbers. Consider me encouraged but not yet sold enough to start him against a Ravens defense allowing the seventh-lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.21).
— Russell Wilson (DEN) is proving to have a pretty high floor in fantasy. Despite losing by 50 points in Week 3, Russ still managed 15.2 fantasy points. He’s got some playmakers on the outside, but it’s the matchup that puts him into the starting conversation this week. Chicago has given up the second-highest EPA per drop-back (0.37) and the fifth-most fantasy points per game (22.1) to opposing quarterbacks. You could do worse with a few usual starters facing tough matchups.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Lamar Jackson (BAL) is going to break my golden rule this week. In almost every other situation, I’d tell you, “Just play your studs.” But this isn’t a normal situation as Lamar is up against one of the best defenses in the NFL — the Cleveland Browns. Having given up just a single offensive touchdown this season, the Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (6.2) and the lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.60) to opposing QBs. I’m sitting every Raven I can this week, Jackson included.
— Jared Goff (DET) is playing on the road, so we aren’t playing Jared Goff in fantasy. Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has averaged 18.0 fantasy points through the air at home compared to just 11.8 on the road. Green Bay has been solid enough on defense that I’m good to fade Goff on a short week at Lambeau Field.
— Dak Prescott (DAL) didn’t completely hinder you last week, but his 15.4 points didn’t do much to help you win despite a plus matchup. This may just be where we’re at with Dak in Mike McCarthy's offense. His floor is relatively high on a week-to-week basis, but the ceiling just isn’t there given Dallas’ 29th-ranked, -6.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE). The Patriots rank in the top 10 in EPA per drop-back (-0.17) and fantasy points allowed (10.7) to quarterbacks, making Dak an easy sit.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Aaron Jones (GB)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Raheem Mostert (MIA)
— James Cook (BUF)
— James Conner (ARI)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Kyren Williams (LAR)
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
— Zack Moss (IND)
— D’Andre Swift (PHI)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
— Alexander Mattison (MIN)
— Alvin Kamara (NO)
— Miles Sanders (CAR)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— De’Von Achane (MIA) had a huge game in Week 3 and was the top waiver wire target ahead of Week 4. There are several eye-popping stats from Miami’s big win, but this may be my favorite: De’Von Achane is the RB5 in half-PPR for the season ... after scoring 1.4 points in the first two weeks combined. Despite only playing 42.3% of Miami’s snaps, Achane had 18 rush attempts and garnered a 14.3% target share. He’s never going to dominate carries (especially when Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed return), but I’d be hard-pressed not to have Achane in my starting lineup now that we know this is in the range of outcomes.
— Jerome Ford (CLE) is approaching lineup lock status, quickly. While the rushing wasn’t there against a stingy Tennessee front, Ford had a healthy 55.2% of snaps and took advantage of their only red zone rushing attempt. Most encouraging was his usage in the passing game. He flexed his route-running with on his touchdown catch and led the Cleveland backfield with a 63.9% route participation. Sure, the 9.7% target share tied teammate Kareem Hunt, yet Ford should see that number tick up if he keeps running this many routes. He’s a low end-RB2 with upside.
— Isiah Pacheco (KC) won’t ever completely take over the Kansas City backfield, but he’s now led their backs in snap share for three consecutive weeks. The targets (3.0 per game) have been a nice bonus, and he’s garnered nine red zone rushing attempts in the past two weeks. That touchdown upside makes him a low-end RB2 despite a tough matchup with the Jets (seventh-lowest, -0.19 EPA per carry) on deck.
— Javonte Williams (DEN), like the rest of the Broncos, can probably just “Ctrl+Alt+Delete” the Week 3 game film. It was encouraging to see him lead the backfield in snap share (42.4%), rush attempts (11), and target share (8.3%), but I’m not sure what to take away from a game that the Broncos were trailing by double digits nine minutes in. He’s provided a pretty stable floor thus far and has a chance to really break out in Week 3 against a Bears defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (32.2) to opposing running backs.
— Rachaad White (TB) finished with an ugly fantasy line in Week 3, getting under 6.0 points for the second time in three weeks. Yet, I remain pretty confident in his usage. He dominated the snaps (40 to Sean Tucker’s four) and rush attempts (14-2) and ran a route on an encouraging 85.2% of drop-backs. Better days are ahead for someone getting this much work. Notably, the Saints have given up the seventh-most rushing EPA (0.81) in the NFL. Consider him a weak RB2 or strong FLEX.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Brian Robinson (WSH) played just 37.3% of snaps in Week 3 after eclipsing 50% each of the first two weeks. That likely has everything to do with the game script, as the Commanders got down big early and never found any resemblance of offense in their blowout loss. Still, it was discouraging to see Robinson go target-less after garnering five in the first two weeks. Although he was still effective on the ground, if Washington goes down early to the Eagles this week, I don’t love his upside.
— Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) was the less-effective back in Philly’s offense last week, but that didn’t stop him from garnering a 46.2% snap share and 46.6% of their running back carries. Of his 14 attempts, four came in the red zone. That touchdown upside vaults him into FLEX consideration given that the Eagles have the third-highest implied team total (26.5) of the week.
— Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris (PIT) are in a pretty even timeshare. Harris is good for 50-55% of snaps with Warren taking up 40-45%. Warren is the preferred fantasy option at this point. He not only looks like the better rusher (37.5% rush success rate in Week 3 compared to Harris’ 21.1%) but also gets the bulk of the passing work (14.8% target share in Week 3). That said, both are FLEX considerations against Texans defense giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game (24.2) to opposing running backs.
— Matt Breida (NYG) didn’t do much with his four rush attempts and three receptions, turning them into just 18 yards. Yet, he dominated the snap share (80.4%) and reached the end zone to salvage his fantasy day. While he’s not the most exciting option, his touchdown upside puts him firmly on the FLEX radar as long as Saquon Barkley is injured.
— Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson (CHI) are in a timeshare —one that I’m fine to stay away from most weeks but has some appeal in Week 4. Their opponent, the Broncos, just gave up a historic performance to Miami so it’s not crazy to think both backs could enjoy FLEX-worthy days in Week 4. Of the two, I still prefer Herbert as he’s playing more snaps and keeping pace in targets over the past two weeks.
— Joshua Kelley (LAC) gets one more chance. Partly, because the Chargers have a bye in Week 5 and will likely get Austin Ekeler back in Week 6. His Week 2 struggles were excusable given the matchup (Tennessee allows the third-lowest EPA per attempt), but last week’s 2.2-point outing against the Vikings was poor. The matchup in Week 4 is, again, great. I’d personally rather avoid him altogether, but guaranteed usage in a plus matchup is hard to pass up.
— Samaje Perine (DEN) only played 32.2% of snaps in their blowout loss last week, but notably received another red zone attempt — his third in as many games. Throw in his receiving upside and Perine is a sneaky FLEX play against a struggling Bears defense.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Breece Hall (NYJ) hasn’t done much outside of two long runs in Week 1 (those two runs make up 109 of his 154 total yards), but they’ve had some tough matchups to start the season. It was nice to see him play 47.5% of snaps in Week 3 — by far his most of the season — but the matchup doesn’t get any easier with the Chiefs coming to town in Week 4.
— Dameon Pierce (HOU) had a 53.6% snap share in Week 3 — the first time he’s been over 50% this season. He had four red zone rushes for the second consecutive week and this time turned one of them into a score. And yet, I am fading him in Week 4. If Josh Jacobs couldn’t run on this Steelers front, I’m not expecting Pierce to have much success.
— Tyler Allgeier (ATL) has had his snap share drop every week of the season, down to just 30.8% in Week 3. He’s still good for 5-10 rushing attempts, but this is Bijan Robinson’s backfield. There’s almost no situation I’d start him against a Jags front allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per carry (-0.20).
— Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake (BAL), basically, anyone in the Baltimore backfield should be on your bench until further notice. Edwards and Gordon both had 40% of snaps last week, but it’s anyone’s guess what the share looks like upon Hill’s return. The Browns are a force on defense and this Ravens backfield is crowded. Easy sit(s).
— David Montgomery (DET) will likely be a game-time decision for Thursday’s game. He missed last week's game. If he’s cleared well before kickoff I’d be more inclined to start him, but with it being a Thursday game, I’d rather not risk it unless I had no other options.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— Davante Adams (LV)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— Deebo Samuel (SF)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— Puka Nacua (LAR)
— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
— Amari Cooper (CLE)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA) (questionable)
— Tee Higgins (CIN)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
— Mike Evans (TB)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— George Pickens (PIT) had another impressive outing in Week 3, securing four of six targets for 75 yards. His usage was encouraging — an 88.3% snap share and 100% route participation — and he tied for the team lead with a 22.2% target share. He’s quickly developing into Kenny Pickett’s favorite option and slots in as a WR2 with upside ahead of a matchup against Houston.
— Tyler Lockett (SEA) had a quiet Week 3 but still played 80.3% of snaps, had a 92.1% route participation, and had a 20.0% target share. Lockett has a ton of upside, especially this week when he takes on a Giants secondary giving up the third-highest EPA per drop-back (0.27).
— Christian Kirk (JAX) has rebounded the past two weeks after a poor Week 1. He’s played 84.2% of snaps and had a 24.7% target share over that span, but it remains to be seen what his usage looks like when Zay Jones is healthy. A matchup with Atlanta isn’t great, yet Kirk is playing a premium role right now. He’s a solid WR2 and great WR3 in Week 4.
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF) was seen practicing this week — a good sign for his status this weekend. He had a WR2 finish in Week 1 before getting banged up in Week 2. Assuming he plays, Aiyuk can safely be reinserted into lineups as he played 84.8% of snaps and had a 28.6% target share in his lone healthy week. There’s some risk involved with the injury, but the fact that he’s already practicing makes me confident in trotting him out there as a WR2.
— Adam Thielen (CAR) looks like a must-start player with Andy Dalton under center. He turned some heads with nine targets and a score in Week 2 before having a huge game in Week 3. The 33-year-old turned a 24.6% target share into 11 receptions, 145 yards, and a touchdown en route to a WR4 finish (26 points). Thielen will take on his former team, the Minnesota Vikings, in Week 4. Minnesota has given up the third-most fantasy points per game (44.2) to opposing wide receivers, putting Thielen firmly into WR2 territory. He’s my favorite start of the week.
— Jakobi Meyers (LV) has only played two games thus far but slots in as the WR22 overall. He looked sharp in his return last week, securing seven of 12 targets while playing 86.6% of Vegas’ snaps. Jimmy Garoppolo’s concussion is something to monitor, but backup Aidan O’Connell played well enough in the preseason that I’m still starting Meyers in a matchup against the Chargers.
— Tutu Atwell (LAR) scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 3, finishing as the WR14 with 15.2 fantasy points. Atwell actually led Rams receivers with a 28.1% target share, and it’s becoming clear Sean McVay wants to get him the ball. Operating as LA’s most potent playmaker and with double-digit points in three straight games, he’s in a great spot to produce against a Colts secondary allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game (34.9) to opposing wide receivers.
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) is toeing the start/sit line. Despite pacing the Bills in snap share (78.5%) and route participation (90.6%), Davis only had four targets in Week 3. Though, as is often the case with Davis, that was all he needed to turn in a solid fantasy day. He finished with 35 yards and a touchdown — his second consecutive game with a score. With a 53.5-point total set for Sunday’s matchup with Miami, I want any piece of this game I can get. Consider him a low-end WR2 or FLEX with major upside.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Chris Godwin (TB). Despite playing the most snaps (81.1%) and garnering the second-highest target share (21.3) on the team, Godwin hasn’t eclipsed 8.5 fantasy points yet this season. There is certainly reason for optimism — mostly thanks to his 38.5% red zone target share — but a matchup with New Orleans isn’t ideal.
— Nico Collins and Tank Dell (HOU) are worth a look in Week 4. Both played more than 60% of snaps in Week 3, but the two went in opposite directions usage-wise. It looked as if Collins had taken hold of the top receiver role, but he garnered just a 6.7% target share in Week 3 after getting 23.2% in Week 1 and 2. Dell, meanwhile, had his target share climb for the third consecutive week — up to 24.1%. The Steelers have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game (37.9) to opposing wide receivers, so there is room for both Texans to thrive in Week 4. That said, if I had to choose one, I’d go with the high-upside rookie, Dell.
— Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (DEN) may have lost by 50 on the field, but the two had solid fantasy days. Sutton is looking like Russell Wilson’s preferred option as he has a 29.0% target share in the two games both wideouts have been active. That said, Jeudy has only played 71% of snaps thus far and he had a similar air yard share (29.7% to Sutton’s 31.0%) in Week 2. They’re both FLEX candidates in a good matchup against Chicago.
— Michael Thomas (NO) has been consistent through three weeks, racking up 8.6, 9.0, and 8.0 fantasy points in his three games. His target share (25.7%) is encouraging, yet an 8.6 aDOT limits his upside. I’m not sure what to expect from Jameis Winston under center, but there’s no question that Thomas has upside against a Tampa secondary allowing 32.5 fantasy points per game to wideouts.
— Jordan Addison (MIN) didn’t score a touchdown for the first time in Week 3. As a result, he finished as the WR43. I love Addison’s profile, and he’ll only get better as the season goes on, but he’s only commanding a 14.3% target share and entrenched as (at best) the No. 3 option. It was encouraging to see him play more than 70% of snaps for the first time last week. However, the Panthers have a strong enough secondary that he’s merely a touchdown-or-bust FLEX option in Week 4.
— Marquise Brown (ARI) scored for the second consecutive game last week and has had 14.4 and 14.6 points in the past two games. He’s commanding a healthy 27.5% target share and playing 91.2% of snaps, so the usage is there. That said, his upside is capped with Josh Dobbs under center, especially against the 49ers’ defense. You can do worse if you’re thin at WR, but there are a lot more guys I’d rather play than Brown this week.
— Elijah Moore (CLE) continues to get targets, enough that he’s firmly on the FLEX radar. With nine in Week 3, Moore is tied with Amari Cooper for the team lead in target share (25.0%). The difference between the two is that Moore’s don’t come in very advantageous positions for fantasy production. Moore is getting a 7.6 aDOT on the season and hasn’t gotten a red zone look the past two weeks. He’s a fine play in full-point PPR formats but otherwise can be sat.
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN). Despite commanding 30.9% of the team’s targets through three weeks, Hopkins has yet to have a weekly finish inside the top 25 receivers. The Bengals secondary has been pretty solid thus far, but you could do a lot worse than Hopkins in Week 4 thanks to his usage. He’s a low-end WR3 and a major floor-play.
— Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston (LAC) both have an opportunity to become fantasy-relevant with Mike Williams out for the season. In the short term, I prefer Palmer. Through three weeks, Palmer’s played 61.5% of snaps compared to Johnston’s 23.4% and commanded an 11.0% target share to Johnston’s 6.8%.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ) is difficult to count on as long as Zach Wilson is behind center. Despite playing 96.7% of snaps and commanding a 32.1% target share in Week 3, he only finished as the WR48 (7.3 points). If Trevor Siemian were to take over quarterback duties, Wilson would be a borderline must start. For now, let him hang out on your bench against a tough Chiefs defense.
— Zay Flowers (BAL) has been busy in his young career and is locked into a near-every down role after playing 93.1% of snaps in Week 3. He’s commanded a 29.8% target share thus far but only a 21.2% air yard share. He’s mostly used in the short-to-intermediate part of the field and that limits his fantasy upside. Still, that isn’t why we’re sitting him this week — that would be matchup-based. The Browns have given up the lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.60) and the fewest fantasy points per game (14.9) to receivers, so keep the prized rookie stashed on your bench this week.
— Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed (GB) are just a giant shrug for me. With Watson back, I have no idea how this receiving group shakes out. Can Jordan Love support three fantasy wideouts? My guess would be no, especially now that Aaron Jones is healthy. If I had to bet, I’d say Reed is the odd-man out, but I don’t feel confident starting any of them with so much uncertainty.
— Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson (WSH) can be left on your bench this week. Neither did much of anything in their blowout loss last week despite both playing more than 80% of snaps. Washington is an 8.5-point road underdog against the Eagles. Better days are ahead for the Commanders’ pass catchers ... just not this Sunday.
— D.J. Moore (CHI) salvaged a brutal Week 3 with a late touchdown, but I have no confidence in him replicating that in Week 4. Even though I’m optimistic about Justin Fields, I don’t feel the same about Moore. That mostly has to do with the matchup. Moore will likely see a lot of Patrick Surtain II this week — one of the top cornerbacks in the game. He’s an easy sit in what should be a run-heavy script for Chicago.
— Drake London (ATL) can’t be trusted in this Atlanta offense. After a strong Week 2, London regressed in Week 3 despite the Falcons throwing more than usual. Even with him playing nearly 90% of snaps, I can’t get behind starting London unless you’re desperate. Even then, you can surely find a better option off the waiver wire.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Darren Waller (NYG)
— Sam LaPorta (DET)
— George Kittle (SF)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Tier 2: Probable Starters
— Pat Freiermuth (PIT). After a slow start in Weeks 1 and 2, Freiermuth paid off for fantasy managers with 11.6 points in Week 3. He only had four targets but turned that into 41 yards and a score. For a tight end, that’s about all you can ask for. Houston is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game (10.2) to tight ends, making Freiermuth a solid TE1 coming off his best game of the season.
— Hunter Henry (NE) had a quiet Week 3, but remains a formidable starting tight end going forward. Despite the 2.7-point game, Henry still slots in as the TE3 on the season. His usage remained strong in Week 3 as he played 85.5% of snaps and commanded an 18.5% target share. Dallas is a pretty tough matchup for tight ends, but Henry has as much touchdown upside as anyone. Start him with confidence.
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) might be back. Although Higbee’s snap share (92.3%) was great in Weeks 1 and 2, he only garnered an 11.2% target share and a 6.3 aDOT. He still had a ton of snaps (96.2%) in Week 3, but his target share (15.6%) and aDOT (9.1) bumped up to more fantasy-relevant levels. I still want to see some red zone usage from Higbee, but it’s hard not to start him coming off a solid week with the Colts defense on deck.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Kyle Pitts (ATL) is my least favorite player to rank every week. He led the team with a 23.7% target share and 34.9% air yard share in Week 3 ... and had 6.2 fantasy points. His quarterback play and offensive scheme make him almost impossible to trust, but at such a volatile position, I won’t blame you for taking a swing on him. It doesn’t hurt that the Jags have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (13.3) to tight ends.
— Jake Ferguson (DAL). Ferguson, again, commanded a strong target share (19.4%) and had another red zone target in Week 3. Yet Ferguson, again, failed to score double-digit fantasy points. The bar isn’t very high for a starting tight end, so you could do worse playing someone with the most red zone targets (nine) in the league.
— Taysom Hill (NO) didn’t see the kind of usage I was hoping for in Week 3, but he’s back on my radar in Week 4 with Derek Carr hurt. Hill was only on the field for 30% of snaps last week, and the return of Alvin Kamara won’t help him in that department. Still, he possesses real touchdown upside with three red zone rushes in the past two weeks. For tight ends, that’s about all you need to warrant fantasy consideration.
— Luke Musgrave (GB) has been trending upward and is one of the top tight end streamers this week. His playing time continues to tick up as he played 87.3% of snaps in Week 3. That said, he’s likely to have his 18.6% target share dip with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back. You could do better, but you could also do a lot worse.
— Dalton Kincaid (BUF) disappointed in Week 3, but he has a chance to break out this week. Though he played a season-low 49.2% of snaps in Buffalo’s blowout win, I have a hunch the Bills will need him this week. Miami has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game (11.5) and the sixth-highest aDOT (7.7) to opposing tight ends. That, coupled with Buffalo’s 28.25 implied team total, gives the rookie a ton of upside in Week 4.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— David Njoku (CLE) had a 12.9% target share in Week 3. More concerning: Njoku had a 1.7% air yard share in Week 3. He had an aDOT of 1.0 and hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. It's difficult to start a player with such little upside, especially against a Ravens defense that has given up the second-fewest fantasy points (2.8) to opposing tight ends.
— Zach Ertz (ARI) had his target share dip to 9.5% last week after getting a 30.5% share in Weeks 1 and 2. I think he still has some value going forward, but there’s no chance I’m starting him against the 49ers given his low 6.3 aDOT.
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