The NFL dialed up the scoring in Week 2 after a lackluster opening week.
Teams averaged 22.7 points per game in Week 2 — a noticeable improvement on Week 1.
That helped us in fantasy as things began to even out and look a little more like we expected them to look prior to the season.
Still, there were plenty of surprises, and while we don’t want to completely ignore our preseason projections, we have to react to what’s happening on the field. There are only 17 games in the NFL season, so we shouldn’t be afraid to fade slow starters in favor of hot names.
That’s what we’re attempting to do here. Every week, I’ll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers, with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though, the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Justin Herbert (LAC)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
— Anthony Richardson (IND) (questionable)
— Kirk Cousins (MIN)
— Dak Prescott (DAL)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX) struggled last week, completing 53.7% of his passes and garnering just 9.2 fantasy points. Better days are on the horizon for Lawrence, though that may not be this week. Lawrence scored just 17.5 points total in two games against Houston last season. but unless you doubled up on elite signal-callers, you’re probably still starting him.
— Jared Goff (DET) completed 80% of his passes in Week 2, compiling 323 yards, three touchdowns, and “only” 23.9 fantasy points. The lack of rushing limits his upside, but Goff is as reliable as they come and a borderline QB1 despite a fairly tough matchup with Atlanta — though, I’d be more pessimistic if Amon-Ra St. Brown sat.
— Geno Smith (SEA) got back on track last week after a rough Week 1. The matchup isn’t great this week as the Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per drop-back through two games. However, his playmakers are top notch and with Jaycee Horn out for Carolina, Geno is firmly on the QB1 radar.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Joe Burrow (CIN) has thrown for fewer yards than Zach Wilson through two weeks. I’m not worried about him for the rest of the season, but the Rams have allowed the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back (0.26). You’ll be hard-pressed to sit him in a primetime game, but I wouldn’t be afraid to let him hang out on your bench in favor of any of the guys listed above him.
— Deshaun Watson (CLE) has been the single-most inefficient quarterback in the NFL, registering the fewest (-0.30) Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop-back through two starts. The Titans have been friendly to opposing signal-callers, and Watson’s rushing upside does put him into starting consideration — but it’s hard to feel great after the first two weeks.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Justin Fields (CHI) is difficult to start right now. Fields has struggled this season, slotting in as the QB24 through the first two weeks. Most concerning: Chicago has called just one designed run — not great for a player who scored 53% of his fantasy points on the ground last season. Kansas City’s defense has allowed the ninth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back (0.25) thus far, so you can do better in Week 3.
— Daniel Jones (NYG) dominated in the second half of the win over Arizona and finished as the QB1 (31.7 points) on the week. Still, it’s hard to ignore how bad he looked in the first half and in Week 1. I just can’t stomach starting him against the 49ers without Saquon Barkley.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Raheem Mostert (MIA)
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— James Cook (BUF)
— Kyren Williams (LAR)
— Brian Robinson (WSH)
— Rachaad White (TB)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Joshua Kelley (LAC) didn’t take advantage of Austin Ekeler’s absence in Week 2, but we’ll cut him some slack considering how stout the Titans are against the run. He’s got a great chance to redeem himself this week against a Vikings defense that allowed 175 yards to D’Andre Swift. Kelly played 78.9% of snaps last week, so he’s got as good of a chance as anyone to reach the end zone with his game’s total set at 53.5.
— Miles Sanders (CAR) hasn’t really produced in fantasy, racking up 9.8 and 6.2 points in the first two weeks. Carolina’s offense looks anemic at the moment, but you won’t find many guys with as many guaranteed touches as Sanders. I’m concerned about the continued emergence of Chuba Hubbard, but with 32 carries (eighth in the NFL) through two weeks, Sanders is difficult to sit.
— D’Andre Swift (PHI) had 175 yards, 25.6 fantasy points and a 65.4% rush success rate in Week 2. Kenneth Gainwell could return after missing Week 2, but even if he does, I’m not sure how you sit Swift. Talent was never the question during Swift’s previous stint in Detroit, just opportunity. If he’s getting the bulk of the work in one of the best rush offenses in football, he has to be in your lineup.
— Alexander Mattison (MIN) has not been the breakout running back many hoped for during draft season. He’s sitting at RB35 after a 3.4-point game in Week 2 and has generated -0.44 EPA per carry. I’m not the biggest Mattison believer, but we have to acknowledge how tough his first two matchups have been. He still had 71.2% of snaps and is on the short list of backs likely to have double-digit touches every week. Except him to get back on track in a much friendlier matchup against the Chargers.
— Isiah Pacheco (KC) had an encouraging second week. Though he finished with just 7.5 fantasy points, he had his snap rate climb to 51.6% and enjoyed 12 of Kansas City’s 14 running back rush attempts. However, what I’m really intrigued by is his work in the passing game. Despite getting just two targets, Pacheco led the backfield with 18 routes. He gets the Bears this week — a run defense that’s been decent thus far but just allowed 103 total yards to Rachaad White. Consider Pachecho a low-end RB2 with real touchdown upside given KC’s slate-leading implied team total of 30.0.
— Javonte Williams (DEN) has had a slow start, but that’s to be expected after he recovered from his knee injury as quickly as he did. He’s still under a 50% snap share, so there’s some risk in playing him this week but he dominated the rushing share in Week 2, with 11 more carries than the next-closest Denver back. Miami has allowed by far the highest success rate (63.5%) and EPA per carry (0.13) to opposing rushers, putting Williams firmly on the RB2 radar.
— Zack Moss (IND) finished as the RB10 last week (18.7 points). He was the only Indianapolis running back to get a carry and played 98.2% of snaps. That usage puts him in the RB2 conversation even in a tough matchup with Baltimore. I need to see it against someone besides the Texans before I completely trust him, but Moss is in the starting conversation. Keep an eye on Anthony Richardson’s status — if he's out, Moss could get a bump in value with more goal-line work and a bigger role in the passing game.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Breece Hall (NYJ) finished with 0.9 fantasy points against Dallas. He gained just 9 yards on four carries and failed to catch either of his two targets. His snap share (33.3%) was nearly identical to what it was in Week 1, but Dallas’ defense held him in check. Until we see the Jets give Hall a bigger workload, it’s difficult to trust him — though Raheem Mostert thrived versus New England’s defense last week. He’s the ultimate low-floor, high-ceiling play.
— Gus Edwards (BAL) had the better fantasy day in Baltimore’s backfield, but Justice Hill got more usage. Edwards played 45.7% of snaps and had 10 carries but zero targets. Hill led the way with a 54.3% snap share and 11 carries in addition to three targets. Hill also had three red zone carries to Edwards’ one, but Edwards scored a TD and Hill failed to find the end zone. One of them will likely finish within the top 24 running backs, but that’ll likely again come down to whoever scores. I prefer Hill’s usage, but either makes for a decent play despite Indy’s solid run defense.
— A.J. Dillon (GB) didn’t do a lot with his starting opportunity last week and finished with 6.8 fantasy points. Despite getting 68.1% of snaps, he garnered just -0.12 EPA per carry and had only one target. He’s not in the starting conversation if Aaron Jones returns, but is worth FLEX consideration if Jones can’t suit up. However, temper expectations given his matchup with the Saints stout run defense.
— Najee Harris (PIT) enters Week 3 as the RB47 and with only two more rush attempts than Baker Mayfield. He played just 56.6% of snaps in Week 2 and had a 30.0% success rate on 10 rushes. The Raiders have allowed the second-highest rush success rate (52.9%) and EPA per carry (0.04), so the matchup is great but tread lightly. Jaylen Warren is coming.
— Jaylen Warren (PIT) is trending up. He finished with 10.6 fantasy points in Week 2, turning 10 combined rushes and catches into 86 yards while playing 43.4% of snaps. He’s Pittsburgh’s preferred back in the passing game and is in a nice spot to produce again against the Raiders defense. He’s a FLEX with RB2 upside — just don’t be surprised if Harris continues to handle the bulk of the rushing work.
— Dameon Pierce (HOU) had his snap rate clock in under 50% for the second consecutive week, and he delivered a 13.3% success rate on 15 carries in Week 2. He did catch two passes (on three targets), but as long as Houston is giving four running backs 20% of the carries, he’s not someone I’m excited about starting. I wouldn’t blame you for sitting him against a Jaguars defense holding opposing backs to the second-lowest rushing success rate (20.0%) in the league.
— Tyler Allgeier (ATL) didn’t score in Week 2 and therefore had a rough fantasy day (4.8 points). He had his snap share drop from 54.2% to 43.6% and had half the success rate (31.3%) of teammate Bijan Robinson. He has touchdown upside in Arthur Smith’s offense, but that’s about it. I’m not excited to start him against the Detroit run defense.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— James Conner (ARI) has been a workhorse this season. He enters Week 3 as the RB13 in fantasy and with the fourth-most rush attempts (37) in the league. He’ll be solid going forward, but I’m doing everything I can to sit him this week against a Dallas defense that holds opposing backs to the third-fewest EPA per rush (-0.42) and just completely handled Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook.
— Jerome Ford (CLE) filled in admirably for the injured Nick Chubb and finished as the RB6 with 22.6 fantasy points. He should be a quality RB2 the rest of the way, but I’m not starting him this week. One, the Browns just signed Kareem Hunt, who was ahead of Ford on the depth chart just last season. Two, the Browns take on the Titans, one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Unless you’re desperate, I’d hold Ford for a better matchup, with Week 3 giving us a chance to get a clearer picture of how the usage shakes out.
— Khalil Herbert (CHI) and Roschon Johnson have actually looked pretty good so far. They’re sitting at RB28 and RB23, respectively, but until the timeshare shakes out in favor of one or the other, it’s hard to trust either in your starting lineup. With the Chiefs defense looking strong and the Bears headed to Arrowhead as big underdogs, feel free to fade both of them in Week 3.
— Matt Breida (NYG) was a popular pickup in the wake of Saquon Barkley’s injury but don’t get cute. Bredia should get the majority of New York’s rushing work ... against a 49ers front allowing the second-fewest yards over expectation per rush (-1.10) in the NFL. The Giants are big underdogs on Thursday night, and with a negative game script, there just isn’t enough rushing volume to warrant starting him in such a tough matchup.
— Dalvin Cook (NYJ) is on the cusp of fantasy irrelevance. He faces the same issues Breece Hall does (a struggling quarterback and offensive line) but doesn’t have the same upside. After outputting -0.3 points last week, Cook is a sit even with New England’s rush defense looking suspect.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— Davante Adams (LV)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Puka Nacua (LAR)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— Amari Cooper (CLE)
— Deebo Samuel (SF)
— Mike Evans (TB)
— Tyler Lockett (SEA)
— Mike Williams (LAC)
— Tee Higgins (CIN)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) is a high-caliber NFL wide receiver and he’s quickly putting last season’s struggles out of fantasy managers’ minds. Pittman had his target share jump from 28.2% in Week 1 to 38.7% in Week 2 and he played 97% of the snaps for a second consecutive week. Baltimore’s secondary is solid, but it has allowed the 11th-highest catch rate over expectation (5.3%). Pittman is nearly a lineup lock.
— Nico Collins (HOU) was dominating in Week 2, finishing with 24.1 points and garnering a target share north of 20% for the second consecutive game. Jacksonville’s secondary has been decent, but with Houston playing at the fourth-highest pace in the league, there should be plenty of opportunities for Collins to produce yet again.
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF) got banged up in Week 2 and gave fantasy managers a quiet encore to his big Week 1. Still, if he plays he probably needs to be in lineups. Despite playing just 51.9% of snaps last week, he still commanded a 25.0% target share and the Giants secondary is far from stout.
— George Pickens (PIT) broke out in Week 2. Pickens’ line was great. He finished with 127 yards, a 34.5% target share, and a touchdown. However, 71 of those yards came on one play and he caught just four of his 10 targets. Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense should find more success in Week 3 against a Raiders defense that has allowed the third-highest catch rate over expectation (13.0%) and if he’s going to continue to command such a large share of the game plan it’s hard not to recommend him.
— Zay Flowers (BAL) had his target share drop from 47.6% in Week 1 to 15.2% in Week 2. While that was to be expected with the return of Mark Andrews, fantasy managers won’t be pleased to hear he was out-targeted by Nelson Agholor. Don’t lose faith though. Flowers’ 77.1% snap share was far and away the highest among any Baltimore receiver and he ran seven more routes than the next-closest wideout. Look for his target share to settle somewhere in between his first two weeks’ numbers — something that should lead to fantasy success against the Colts secondary.
— Jordan Addison (MIN) won’t score a touchdown every week. Addison had a 62-yard score last week but finished with just three receptions and 72 yards. However, I’m encouraged that his snap share jumped from 55.6% to 67.3% and he again finished with the second-most air yards on the team. I’d be hard-pressed to fade him against one of the worst defenses considering the Vikings are passing at the second-highest rate over expectation (9.1%).
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) had a big week, finishing as the WR15 (18.2 points) while tying Stefon Diggs for the team lead in targets (seven). Davis has now played 75% of the snaps in two consecutive weeks and is easily running the second-most routes on the team. Washington has allowed the third-highest aDOT (13.3) — a good sign for Davis.
— Josh Reynolds (DET) had his snap share jump to 79.7% and actually ran the most routes on the team in Week 2. He’s entrenched as Detroit’s No. 2 receiver after earning the second-highest target share for the second week in a row. With Seattle allowing the second-most yards per route run (2.31) to opposing receivers, there is no reason to fade someone who’s consistently shown such a strong rapport with Jared Goff.
— Chris Godwin (TB) had a 25.0% target share in Week 2 and was on the field more than any other Tampa Bay receiver. I have concerns that Baker Mayfield could struggle against the Eagles, but their defense hasn’t looked nearly as menacing as last season. While Godwin hasn’t scored yet, he had both of Tampa’s red zone targets in Week 2 so don’t be shocked to see him score this week.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ). The talented receiver salvaged his fantasy day with a 68-yard touchdown, but caught just 2 of 8 targets against the Cowboys defense. Things don’t get any easier in Week 3 with the Jets hosting the Patriots, but his big play potential warrants starting consideration.
— Tutu Atwell (LAR) hasn’t gotten as much buzz as his teammate, Puka Nacua, but he’s been impressive as well. Atwell finished with double-digit fantasy points for the second consecutive week and actually got more snaps and ran more routes than Nacua. He’s hovering around a 20% target share on the season and his big-play potential puts him in FLEX consideration with how well Matt Stafford is playing right now.
— Michael Thomas (NO) may not be the No. 1 option in New Orleans, but he’s still getting plenty of work. Thomas had a 26.5% target share in Week 2 and led the team with seven receptions. He’d get bumped up a tier in full-PPR leagues but his volume warrants FLEX consideration regardless of your scoring format.
— Elijah Moore (CLE) is going to break out one of these games. Moore was held under eight fantasy points for the second consecutive week but his usage was, again, encouraging. Moore finished right behind teammate Amari Cooper with a 23.2% target share and a 25.6% air yard share. Elijah Moore has a ton of upside against Tennessee’s secondary.
— Terry McLaurin (WSH) finished with more fantasy points (13.9) than Jahan Dotson (3.7) in Week 2 but the usage stats favored Dotson. Dotson out-snapped McLaurin 55-48 and ran 39 routes to McLaurin’s 33. McLaurin did get six targets to Dotson’s five but that’s negligible. Buffalo’s defense is solid so I’m not thrilled about either of them — though, Dotson would be my preferred choice of the two.
— D.J. Moore (CHI) had a much better performance in Week 2, finishing with 13.4 fantasy points after his 3.5-point Week 1. His 25.0% target share was especially encouraging and he seems locked into a 90% snap share. That said, Justin Fields’ passing struggles cap his upside and a road matchup against the Chiefs has me pessimistic about his Week 3 chances.
— Christian Kirk (JAX) bounced back in Week 2 at the expense of Zay Jones. After Jones out-snapped Kirk 61-42 and was targeted four more times than him in Week 1, the script flipped against Kansas City. Kirk played the highest rate of snaps (81.3%) of any Jacksonville receiver and finished with a staggering 14 targets en route to a WR20 (16.5 points) finish. I have a feeling these two will continue to flip-flop between being fantasy-relevant throughout the season — though, both could feast against Houston's defense.
— Jayden Reed (GB) took command of the Green Bay receiving room last week. He easily led the team in target share (32.0%) and scored two touchdowns to propel him to a WR16 (17.7 points) finish. However, we may have to temper expectations in Week 3 with a stout Saints defense coming to town.
— Rashid Shaheed (NO) still hasn’t played more than 55% of snaps and won’t likely get a target share north of 20% but there is no doubting his playmaking abilities. Shaheed’s stellar aDOT (14.4) gives him a high ceiling — though, he could struggle against a stout Green Bay secondary.
— Tank Dell (HOU) had his snap share jump from 43.8% in Week 1 to 78.5% in Week 2 and made the most of it. Dell had a team-leading 23.5% target share while running the second-most routes on the team. I want to see it for more than one week before I trust him as a weekly starter but you could do a lot worse with your FLEX.
— Jakobi Meyers (LV) makes for a solid FLEX play if he’s cleared to play. He showed an instant rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 1 when he had a 38.5% target share and caught two touchdowns. Meyers needs to be in lineups if he’s healthy.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Drake London (ATL) finished with 15.7 fantasy points in Week 2 —15.7 points more than he scored in Week 1. Still, I’m not convinced. This Atlanta offense is going to be a headache for fantasy managers all season and I’d rather wait another week to see if London’s usage is legit before slotting him into my starting lineup.
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN). Despite a plus matchup in Week 2, Hopkins only had five targets and was limited to a 58.7% snap share. Cleveland’s defense has looked elite thus far, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Fade Hopkins and wait to play him in a better matchup.
— Jerry Jeudy (DEN) and Courtland Sutton may be the least fun fantasy receiving duo in the league — though, that’s not their fault. Russell Wilson’s box score numbers aside, it’s really hard to trust either of these two. Sutton notably had a 26.9% target share in Week 2, but he turned that into just 66 yards. Miami’s secondary has given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to receivers thus far so even in a negative game script it’s really hard to trust either Denver wideout.
— Marquise Brown (ARI) had a really encouraging Week 2. He commanded a 34.5% target share and was on the field for 93.3% of snaps while leading the team with 93.5% route participation. I’m pretty high on him rest of season but with the Cowboys in town, I want nothing to do with Arizona’s offense in Week 3.
— Skyy Moore (KC) bounced back in Week 2, catching a touchdown and running the second-most routes on the team. Still, his 10.3% target share is hard to ignore, and that lack of volume makes him difficult to trust even in a plus matchup.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— Darren Waller (NYG)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
— Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Sam LaPorta (DET) is a borderline must start just two games into his NFL career. LaPorta has now played at least 80% of snaps in each of his first two games and tied for the second-most targets (six) on Detroit in Week 2. The rookie should only get better as the season goes on and his volume makes him a strong play against the Atlanta defense.
— George Kittle (SF) has been disappointing fantasy-wise thus far, but I’m optimistic about his chances in Week 3. Kittle’s fantasy struggles never have anything to do with his talent, just his opportunity. Despite playing 96.3% of snaps in Week 2, he received just a 12.5% target share. However, with Brandon Aiyuk banged up, Kittle could shine in a plus matchup as San Francisco’s No. 2 option.
— Hunter Henry (NE) looks like the 2021 version of himself. You know, the Hunter Henry that finished as the TE9 overall? He’s quickly become New England’s go-to option in the red zone and he’s now drawn at least six targets in back-to-back games. Tight end is pretty touchdown-or-bust outside of the top-six options and Henry gives you as good of a chance to score as anyone.
— Pat Freiermuth (PIT) has been one of the biggest disappointments at the position through two weeks, and that’s saying something. Despite playing 75.5% of snaps in Week 2, Freiermuth had just a single target with the Pittsburgh offenses struggling to get anything going against the Browns defense. That said, I’m not willing to ignore how consistent he was last season just because of two tough matchups. With the Raiders defense on deck in Week 3, I’m still starting him.
— Taysom Hill (NO). With Alvin Kamara still suspended and Jamaal Williams dealing with an injury, Hill is more than a capable fantasy option in Week 3. Hill turned nine rushing attempts in 75 yards last week and he’ll likely get another big workload with how thin New Orleans is at running back. He’s a capable starting option if you’re thin at tight end.
Tier 3: On the fence
— David Njoku (CLE) hasn’t popped yet and he only had a 10.0% target share in Week 2 despite being on the field for 84.0% of snaps. Still, the more you’re on the field, the better chance you have to score and Njokua could benefit from a Tennessee defense that struggles against the pass. He’s got upside but a low floor.
— Dalton Kincaid (BUF) is on the rise stock-wise. Kincaid had his snap share drop to 62.2% in a blowout Week 2 win but his target share crept up to 16.7% — third on the team. Betting on first-round pass catchers to improve as the season goes on is a safe proposition and he should have a good chance to score given Buffalo’s 25.5-point implied team total.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Kyle Pitts (ATL) cannot be started until further notice. He’s only played 66.7% of snaps through two weeks and his 17.4% target share doesn’t mean much for a team throwing at the lowest rate over expectation (-14.2%) in the NFL. Love the talent, hate the system. He’s an easy sit.
— Zach Ertz (ARI) is getting some major usage through two weeks. He leads all tight ends with a 30.5% target share and is running a route on a stellar 85.9% of plays. I love Ertz going forward but the Cardinals are facing the Cowboys this week so I’d rather avoid Arizona altogether.
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) is a distant third option in LA. While he actually has the highest snap rate (92.3%) among Rams pass catchers, he’s commanding a 11.2% target share. Higbee could score a touchdown, but you won’t get anything from him in turns of receptions or yards.
— Cole Kmet (CHI) has been fine thus far, slotting in as the TE11. That’s not a very high bar, however, considering he’s only scored 12.7 points total. Even with his 21.4% target share last week, I’m inclined to fade Chicago’s passing attack against a stout Kansas City defense.
___
For more fantasy or sports betting news, go to FanDuel Research
