After a long six months without football, the NFL returns this week, and with it, fantasy football is back.
Now that drafts are firmly in the rearview mirror, we can turn our attention to the most important part of fantasy: your starting lineup.
I don’t have to tell you to start your studs. But what about the guys on the fringes?
Hopefully, you drafted or scoured free agency well enough that you have a solid bench and there are at least some starting spots up for debate. For those circumstances, I have you covered.
Every week I’ll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy.
For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though, the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Justin Herbert (LAC)
— Justin Fields (CHI)
— Joe Burrow (CIN)
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) averaged the 10th-most points per game (18.4) last season, so there’s no reason to fade him while he’s healthy — especially since their matchup with the Chargers has the second-highest total (50.5) of the week.
— Geno Smith (SEA) was last season's QB5 and has a Week 1 matchup against PFF’s lowest-graded secondary entering 2023. He finished as a QB1 in both games against the Rams last season, and that was before they lost Jalen Ramsey.
— Dak Prescott (DAL) may not throw as much with Kellen Moore in Los Angeles, but Prescott's stellar efficiency (second with a 52.2% pass success rate) is more than enough to warrant a start in an average matchup.
— Jared Goff (DET) proved a lot of people wrong with a QB10 finish in 2022 and should keep the momentum rolling in Week 1 against a Chiefs defense that gave up the third-most points per game (20.5) to opposing quarterbacks last season and will likely be without Chris Jones.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Russell Wilson (DEN) averaged the fourth-most points per game (21.6) over the final four weeks of 2022. With Sean Payton in town, he’s a fringe QB1 in Week 1 thanks to the Raiders’ defense allowing the sixth-most points per game (19.1) to quarterbacks in 2022.
— Daniel Jones (NYG) is a really good fantasy quarterback, and I’m a believer ... just not against the Cowboys. He averaged just 14.6 points per outing against Dallas last season, and they have PFF’s sixth-ranked secondary entering the season.
— Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) will have strong fantasy performances in New York, but his opening matchup is a big challenge. The Bills allowed the fewest points per game (13.6) to quarterbacks last season, making Rodgers a huge fantasy risk this week. He’s got upside, but with no rushing volume to fall back on, Rodgers is a scary start in Week 1.
— Derek Carr (NO) slots in as one of the best quarterback streamers for Week 1 thanks to a matchup with Tennessee. Last season, the Titans allowed the most passing yards (4,671), second-most touchdowns (29), and the third-most points per game (20.5) to quarterbacks.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Anthony Richardson (IND) has star potential (at least in fantasy), but given his inexperience, I’ll pass on rolling him out there in his first career start — though, he does carry numberFire’s sixth-highest projection (19.2) of the week.
— Deshaun Watson (CLE) didn’t show much in limited playing time last season, checking in as the QB14 over his six games. A full offseason should help, but until we see glimpses of 2020 Watson, I’d rather not start him, especially against a Bengals defense that allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (13.9) to opposing quarterbacks in 2022.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Austin Ekeler (LAC)
— Nick Chubb (CLE)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Saquon Barkley (NYG)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— Aaron Jones (GB)
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
— Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
— Miles Sanders (CAR)
— Cam Akers (LAR)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— J.K. Dobbins (BAL) has never struggled with efficiency, just durability. While it may be hard to trust him right away after something of a lost season in 2022, he excelled when he played. Despite recording just 92 carries, Dobbins registered 0.14 rushing Net Expected Points per attempt — more than any rusher in the above Tier 1. He should be locked and loaded into your lineup given that the Texans allowed the most fantasy points (28.7) to opposing backs in 2022.
— Raheem Mostert (MIA) has big upside in Week 1. The oft-injured speedster is the only fully healthy back in Miami — a good thing for his fantasy prospects considering he averaged 11.4 points per game in the 12 games last season in which he had double-digit touches. Taking on a Chargers defense that allowed the eighth-most points per game (23.1) to running backs last season, Mostert has a solid floor and massive ceiling.
— Najee Harris (PIT) may not be the most noteworthy back in fantasy, but you won’t find many running backs with more guaranteed touches in Week 1. The 49ers’ defense allowed the fewest points per game (13.7) to running backs in 2022, but Harris is still a volume-based RB2 who has the potential to get into the end zone.
— Jamaal Williams (NO) may not have gone as high in drafts as the other guys around him on this list, but he has as much upside as anyone in Week 1. With Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller’s status up in the air, Williams should be started in all formats — though we should temper expectations considering the Titans allowed the second-fewest points per game (16.1) to running backs last season.
— Alexander Mattison (MIN) should be started in all but the shallowest of leagues. Although Tampa Bay allowed the sixth-fewest points per game (17.0) to running backs last season, he projects for a heavy workload and slots in as the RB10 in numberFire’s projections.
— James Conner (ARI) has been ranked as high as a fringe RB1 in some places, but his matchup with a Commanders defense that allowed the seventh-fewest points per game (17.0) to running backs has me skeptical about his upside.
— Dameon Pierce (HOU) should probably be even higher given his projected workload, but a tough matchup with Baltimore (ninth-fewest points per game allowed to RBs in 2022) and a lack of involvement in the passing game (9.3% target share in 2022) limits his upside this week. Still, I’m starting him in almost every league.
— Antonio Gibson (WSH) has a good matchup with an poor Arizona defense that allowed the fourth-most points per game (24.2) to running backs last season. Gibson has a fair amount of upside given his pass-catching volume.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Rachaad White (TB) should see the majority of touches in Tampa Bay’s offense, but there isn’t a ton of upside against a surprisingly solid Minnesota run defense.
— David Montgomery (DET) could wind up being Detroit’s goal-line back, but doesn’t have the pass-catching upside of his teammate, Gibbs. He’s a floor play.
— Brian Robinson (WSH) has just as good of a matchup as his teammate, Gibson, but it’s hard to project his role. There’s upside but a lot of uncertainty.
— Khalil Herbert (CHI) should be the No. 1 back in Chicago, but Fields limits his upside and the Packers’ defense can be tough.
— James Cook (BUF) has a rough matchup with a Jets defense that allowed the 12th-fewest points per game to running backs. A lack of consistent work in 2022 has me weary of trotting him out there in Week 1.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Javonte Williams (DEN) is expected to have a limited workload in his first few games back after missing almost the entirety of last season with a knee injury.
— Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook (NYJ) do not excite me one bit in Week 1. Even if one of them emerges as the clear No. 1 right out of the gate, they have to take on a Bills defense that allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to opposing backs. Their time will come — just not this week.
— Isiah Pacheco (KC) — and the rest of the Chiefs’ backfield for that matter — is a hard pass for me in Week 1. The matchup is decent, but until we get a better picture of the usage, I’d rather not risk it.
— Every single running back in Philly should be avoided until we get a clearer picture of what the committee looks like. It’ll probably vary from week to week, but I’m not thrilled about starting any of their four backs against a stingy Patriots defense.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Davante Adams
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
— Tyler Lockett (SEA)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— D.J. Moore (CHI)
— Tee Higgins (CIN)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Christian Watson (GB)
— Diontae Johnson (PIT)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Amari Cooper (CLE) was likely drafted as your WR2, but you may have to temper expectations in Week 1. Cooper was only the WR23 after Watson took over under center, and the Bengals had a top-10 secondary last season, one that held Cooper to just two catches and 42 yards in their one matchup with Watson as quarterback.
— Drake London (ATL) will look to become the latest sophomore receiver to take a leap, and he certainly has the right matchup to do so in Week 1. Last season the Panthers allowed the fourth-most points per game (31.7) to opposing wide receivers.
— Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (TB) have the track record and matchup to thrive in Week 1. Last season the Vikings gave up the second-most points per game (32.6) to wide receivers, which should allow both to have productive openers even with a shaky quarterback situation.
— Jahan Dotson (WSH) was already looking as if he may overtake the WR1 role in Washington, and with Terry McLaurin banged up, Dotson is the clear-cut first option in a soft matchup. The sophomore-receiver bump is a real thing, and Dotson has a ton of appeal given his touchdown upside (36.4% red zone target share).
— Mike Williams (LAC) delivered an uninspiring WR32 finish last season, and there’s even more target competition this season. Still, while the Dolphins project to have one of the best secondaries in the league once Jalen Ramsey returns, Williams dominated the Dolphins for six catches, 116 yards, and a score last season.
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF) was quietly the most consistent 49ers receiver last season and showed a ton of chemistry with Brock Purdy, finishing as the WR18 from Week 13 onward. I don’t expect much to change in Week 1, especially with George Kittle’s status up in the air.
Tier 3: On the fence
— George Pickens (PIT) could be started based on fun factor alone. Analytically, though, he’s a high-upside start after registering a 29.6% air yard share and 16.3 average depth of target (aDOT) over the final eight weeks. San Francisco is a tough matchup, but the 49ers were vulnerable to the deep ball, giving up the seventh-most 30-yard pass plays in 2022.
— Deebo Samuel (SF) struggled last season but there’s upside against a Steelers defense that was uncharacteristically soft against the pass in 2022.
— Courtland Sutton (DEN) dropped off dramatically over the second half of 2022, but he enters Week 1 as the clear-cut No. 1 with Jerry Jeudy out. That only further bolsters Sutton’s status as a volume play after he paced the team in target share (23.1%) and red zone target share (31.1%) last season.
— Christian Kirk (JAX) has become an afterthought with Calvin Ridley in town, but he was incredibly productive last season, finishing as the WR11 in half-PPR and leading the team with a 22.8% target share. The Colts enter 2023 with PFF’s 31st-ranked secondary, giving Kirk plenty of upside in Week 1.
— Marquise Brown (ARI) was the WR6 through the first six weeks of 2022, but never found his footing after Hopkins returned. While Brown is risky without Kyler Murray, there isn’t any competition for targets, and the Commanders were merely average against the pass last season.
— Michael Thomas (NO) is productive when he’s on the field. He was the WR13 in his three healthy weeks last season before missing the rest of the season with a toe injury. Now healthy, it’s hard not to like him in Week 1 against a Titans defense that gave up the most points per game (33.5) to opposing receivers last season.
— Kadarius Toney (KC) is trending toward playing in Week 1, and if he plays, he absolutely warrants starting consideration. The talented but oft-injured wideout is a home run threat the moment he touches the field (team-high 3.06 yards per route run) and should be a bigger part of the offense with a full offseason under his belt. If Travis Kelce sits, Toney could be Mahomes’ top option.
— Zay Flowers (BAL) has upside if Mark Andrews doesn’t suit up, but he’s merely a dart throw against a Texans defense that was stingy against receivers in 2022.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Brandin Cooks (DAL) should be Dallas’ No. 2 option, but that’s mere speculation. With Cooks now 29 years old and coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, I’d rather wait and see what his role looks like considering the Giants were above average against wide receivers in 2022.
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) is the WR1 in Indianapolis, but I’d be hard-pressed to roll him out there in Richardson’s first career start. There is certainly garbage-time potential, however, given Jacksonville is a 4.5-point road favorite and outscored Indy 58-27 in two games last season.
— Skyy Moore (KC) did not deliver the rookie season many hoped for, but there’s plenty of optimism in Week 1 now that he’s a full-time starter. I’d bump him up a tier if Kelce is out, but if Kelce plays, I’d rather sit Moore this week given that he delivered only one top-48 performance in 2022.
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) is the definition of a post-hype sleeper, but I’m not thrilled about his Week 1 prospects. A team-high 15.5 aDOT and an end zone target share (31.6%) rivaling Diggs’ gives him some touchdown potential, but the Jets are as tough as they come against wide receivers.
— Jordan Addison (MIN) had some hype in camp, but he’s listed as the WR3 on their depth chart and is at best the No. 3 target. His time will come, just not in Week 1.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— Darren Waller (NYG)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Dallas Goedert (PHI)
— George Kittle (SF)
— Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
— David Njoku (CLE)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Kyle Pitts (ATL) likely has to be in your starting lineup based on where you drafted him. There’s optimism he clicks with Desmond Ridder at the helm, but last year’s disappointment is hard to forget. It helps that Pitts will face a Panthers defense that was generous to opposing pass-catchers in 2022.
— Evan Engram (JAX) broke out last season, particularly down the stretch as he was the TE3 from Week 5 onward. A crowded receiving room could eat into his already-low 17.6% target share, and his matchup with the Colts isn’t great for tight ends.
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) isn’t a week-winner, but he delivered three top-12 positional weeks last season after Cooper Kupp went down. He’s a borderline must-start against a Seahawks defense that allowed the fourth-most yards per route run (1.99) to opposing tight ends in 2022.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Juwan Johnson (NO) is one of the top tight end streamers this week. Last season he was the TE7 from Week 6 onward, and now, in Week 1, he takes on a a Titans defense that allowed the second-most yards per route run (2.05) to opposing tight ends.
— Noah Gray (KC) is only worth consideration if Kelce sits. He’s good for the occasional touchdown even if Kelce plays, but don’t roll him out there if Kelce powers through the knee injury. If Kelce is out, Gray is a borderline must-start.
— Isaiah Likely (BAL) shares a similar profile to Gray. If Andrews can’t go, Likely is a lineup lock. In the two games that Andrews missed last season, Likely finished as the TE9 and TE3.
— Gerald Everett (LAC) has a decent matchup against a Dolphins defense that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per target (1.66) to tight ends last season. He’s a fine dart throw.
— Cole Kmet (CHI) is a touchdown-or-bust option in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league. The addition of D.J. Moore could free up more looks for Kmet over the middle of the field, but the tight end has a tough matchup with the Packers in Week 1. That said, he caught a season-best six receptions against them in Week 13 last season, putting him within starting consideration.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) was a popular sleeper in drafts, but he is likely — at best — the No. 3 option in a run-first offense up against a Saints defense that allowed the fewest expected fantasy points (40.4), fantasy points per target (0.88), and catch rate over expectation (-17.7%) to opposing tight ends.
— Dalton Schultz (HOU) will be playing in his first game in Houston and will be catching passes from a quarterback making his first career start. If that wasn’t bad enough, the opposing Ravens allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.05) to tight ends last season.
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