For a long stretch, it seemed like the Most Improved Player Award just went to whoever bumped their scoring average the most. Sometimes that was because a player had improved, sometimes it was because they just had moved into a role that afforded them more minutes and more opportunities to show what they could do.
That's changed a bit over the past few years, with a more well-rounded consideration of actual improvement. And in either case it leads to a field that can be much more crowded than other awards. For example — only two players received first-place votes for Rookie of the Year last season. Six received a first-place vote for Most Improved.
It's likely to be a big pool of players again this year, but here are five I have my eye on as the season gets underway.
5. Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
As far as room for improvement goes, Jabari Smith Jr. is very well set up for a Most Improved Player campaign by his disastrous rookie season. The Rockets, as a whole, were a chaotic mess but his struggles definitely stood out.
The No. 3 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft was billed as an elite spot-up shooter and potentially game-changing defender. He finished the season shooting 40.8 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from beyond the arc, rated by 538's RAPTOR metric as an enormous net negative on defense.
Lots of rookie struggle, particularly on defense, and we can chalk up some of his disappointing performance at that end to a roster that couldn't stick to any defined defensive principles and teammates that brought precious little to the table in effort or awareness. But his jump-shooting was supposed to be rock-solid and he only managed to make 34.4 percent of his wide-open 3-pointers, when no defender was even within six feet of him.
With that as a baseline, any reasonable production from Smith Jr. is going to look like dramatic improvement this season. The Rockets have a coherent system and better talent around him and we may finally get to see some of the skills that were so appealing in his pre-draft profile. If the Rockets are frisky, he averages double-figures, plays tough defense and makes close to 40 percent of his 3s, he should earn a spot in the MIP conversation.
4. Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Mathurin still has some clear holes in his game — defense, creating for others — but he put up big numbers as a rookie and could take things to another level this season. He's moved into the starting lineup in place of Buddy Hield and could find himself with even more minutes when Hield is presumably traded closer to the deadline.
The Pacers offense ran roughshod on the Wizards in their season opener, scoring 143 points. Mathurin chipped in 18 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals, attacking relentlessly in transition and off curls and dribble hand-offs in the halfcourt. He averaged 7.4 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes last season and seems intent on topping that number this year. He believes he's a star and he's just going to keep trying to score on you until you believe it too.
Indiana's offense is going to be explosive this season and Mathurin is going to end up with plenty of opportunities to put up shots and big scoring totals. He's clearly working on rounding out his game but, for at least this award, being a second-year guard putting up 20 points per game on an Eastern Conference playoff team probably makes his MIP case for him.
3. Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
Thanks to Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs have 19 games on national television this season and Devin Vassell has an opportunity to introduce himself to a much wider audience.
A knee injury limited him to just 38 games last season but he averaged 18.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.1 steals, shooting 38.7 percent from beyond the arc. He's a long and capable wing defender with as-yet untappted potential at that end of the floor. Already a dangerous spot-up shooter, he's rounding out his offensive profile and developing as a secondary creator.
Vassell ranked in the 83rd percentile in scoring efficiency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll last season. He's still much more comfortable pulling-up than driving into traffic but his jumpshot is very good and it's not that hard to see the outlines of a complementary offensive threat who can do damage from all three levels.
Playing next to Wembanyama is not just going to bring more eyeballs to Vassell, it's also going to make things much easier for him at both ends of the floor. All of a sudden he's playing next to a mobile offensive threat of unbelievable gravity and an elite rim protector who can allow him to be more aggressive on the perimeter. You could already see the impact on opening night, as Vassell went for 23 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals.
He's a budding star and this may be the season we actually get to see it.
2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Honestly, the biggest barrier to a Most Improved Player campaign for Evan Mobley may be him landing in the middle of the Defensive Player of the Year race. He finished third behind Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brook Lopez last season and there's every reason to think he'll be in the mix there again.
But while the league seems to have a good handle on Mobley's elite defensive impact, some improvement at the other end of the floor could put him in the conversation here as well.
Mobley averaged 16.2 points per game last season and seriously increased his effective field goal percentage but there's plenty of low-hanging fruit. He's yet to break 70 percent from the free throw line or 30 percent from the 3-point line in either of his two seasons. But having shot 47.1 percent on long 2-pointers last season indicates that significant improvement from both areas is in play.
Also, the vast majority of his made baskets are assisted on but he's the tools to dabble more with self-creation which could help unlock some new features in the Cavs offense. Mobley showed some very interesting things on elbow touches last season — putting up decent numbers both as a passing hub and as a face-up threat. If he makes some more jumpers, picks up a extra points at the free throw line and gets a few more chances to work at the elbows, he could easily push his scoring average above 20 points per game and put himself in the conversations for MIP, DPOY and as one of the best two-way players in the league.
1. Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Most Improved Player often comes down to the players who increase their points per game average by the largest amount. I'm not sure if that's really in play for Kuminga, although I would expect him to average more than the 9.9 points per game he averaged last season. But I think he's also ready to make a case for himself with consistent energy, aggression and physicality — the things he didn't always provide last season and ingredients the Warriors desperately need if they're going to compete for a title.
Kuminga led the team in scoring across five preseason games, averaging 21.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists, hitting 11-of-24 from beyond the arc. The 3-point accuracy was nice but far more impressive is that he piled up 37 free throw attempts in 135 minutes (9.8 per 36 minutes). He was relentless attacking the rim and while it also resulted in a lot of turnovers it was, on whole, a huge net-positive for the Warriors.
In the season opener against the Suns, his minutes were reduced from the preseason but he still came away with 12 points on 4-of-8 from the field, getting to the free throw line six times and adding 6 rebounds, an assist and 2 steals in just 20 minutes. Most importantly, the Warriors outscored the by four points when he was on the floor.
Kuminga should be a firm part of the rotation this season and his numbers are going to climb. But I think his case will be made on actual improvement, shaving off some of the rough edges in his game and giving the Warriors a physical force that elevates the whole team.
