College football realignment rumors: Florida State has a problem
The college football landscape is changing again. The only question is whether Colorado's move to the Big 12 was an aftershock of USC and UCLA moving to the Big Ten or a foreshock of more seismic changes.
Florida State is apparently flirting with the possibility of triggering a major earthquake in the CFB world. This week, athletic director Michael Alford, president Richard McCullough and other FSU figures openly threatened a departure from the ACC.
The Seminoles want a bigger piece of pie and they're not sure they're going to get it in their current conference. So they're willing to look elsewhere.
But FSU has a problem, it's the same one Oregon and Washington find themselves in: They may have already missed the window to get the good money in the Big Ten or SEC.
Stewart Mandel laid that out in The Athletic (subscription required), throwing cold water on the idea that the Seminoles would be welcomed into the SEC, their "most logical suitor."
The money from the SEC TV deal comes from ESPN and ESPN already has the rights to air Florida State home games via the ACC for the next decade. If the Seminoles don't bring much added value to the broadcast partner, then the conference doesn't have very much incentive to cut them in.
So Florida State may make a lot of noise, but that racket doesn't look likely to trigger a landscape shift.
College football realignment rumors: Pac-12 in a stalemate
The Pac-12 is a house of cards liable to be blown over by the slightest exhale. But everyone in the Pac-12 seems to be holding their breath waiting for someone or something else to do it.
That's the word from Pete Thamel of ESPN (subscription required) as the Big Ten reportedly explores the idea of adding Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal to the conference while Arizona and potentially others are being eyed by the Big 12.
The existing Pac-12 schools need to decide whether or not the proposed streaming deal with Apple is sufficient enough to keep the conference together. All it would take is one party to decide it isn't for the house of cards to crumble.
Arizona can blow it down by deciding to go to the Big 12 but they may want to see what the Pacific Northwest schools decide first. Oregon or Washington could jump at the chance to join the Big Ten. However, the Big Ten may not want to even make an offer until it's clear the Pac-12 is dead, which would require Arizona or someone else exiting for the Big 12.
See the issue? Thamel described it as "a bunch of power brokers in some fever dream reconstruction of the Spider Man meme – pointing at each other to move first."
Meanwhile, USC may be standing off to the side trying to convince an apathetic Big Ten not to mess with its dream of a West Coast recruiting monopoly by letting its rivals in.
So what happens? There are half a dozen scenarios that could play out over the next 24 hours.
College football realignment rumors: Notre Dame's stance revealed
The Big Ten has long been linked to Notre Dame as an expansion option. The Irish would figure to be the most attractive addition left on the market, well ahead of the likes of Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal.
But Notre Dame has also been resistant to the pull of a conference for decades now. Will that change now that the landscape is shifting again? Apparently not.
According to Pete Thamel, Notre Dame's "view on independence" is not going to be impacted by changes to Big Ten membership.
That sure sounds like the Irish are content with their independence, thank you very much.
The expanding College Football Playoff makes it even more likely they'll be able to lock in a bid in the future even without a conference framework, so independence would be viable from that perspective.
However, Notre Dame could run into a major problem that forces them to join a conference at some point. Their TV deal with NBC is up in 2025 and they're looking for a new one with money competitive with the Big Ten schools. But the TV boom may be coming to an end as broadcast networks tighten their belts and streaming becomes the focus.
The $75 million-a-year deal they were pursuing last year, according to reports, may no longer be a viable ask. And that may be the thing that changes the tune in South Bend.
