For so much of the season, particularly since the College Football Playoff rankings first began being released, fans have expected a week of complete chaos. But so often, it felt like we were being teased with that chaos only to have the rug pulled out from under us. That had to change in Rivalry Week, the final week of the regular season, right?
Nope. It was more of a tease. Whether it was Alabama in the Iron Bowl, Washington in the Apple Cup, Florida State with a backup quarterback in The Swamp, or a number of other big games, we were so close to having the big upsets and they were taken away from us at the last second. Of course, we did get the big CFP-deciding game to start Saturday with Michigan winning once again over Ohio State in The Game.
Not only was the much-anticipated matchup of unbeaten rivals in Ann Arbor a battle to win the Big Ten East and go to face Iowa in Indianapolis for a conference championship next week, but it was also likely for a College Football Playoff berth. And it was Sherrone Moore and the Wolverines that prevailed, as many expected all season long.
But now that the dust has settled, how far will Ohio State drop in the college football rankings handed down by the CFP Selection Committee on Tuesday, the penultimate Top 25 of the season? Will teams like Oregon, Texas and Alabama have a case to move up? Let's take a look at how it could shake out with our latest projections.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 25-21
25. Toledo Rockets
With Kansas State losing in Farmageddon, we're running out of reasons for Toledo to be left outside of the Top 25. For a long time, head coach Jason Candle -- a hot name in the coaching carousel this offseason -- has been atop the MAC but has accrued some baffling results and losses along the way. This season, though, he led Dequan Finn and the Rockets to a perfect conference record and 11-1 overall record, completing that with a win over Central Michigan in Week 13. They deserve the nod for the work they've done this year.
24. Liberty Flames
There will be six teams who finish the 2023 regular season undefeated at the FBS level. Liberty is the only one who isn't even remotely close to the College Football Playoff. But Jamey Chadwell's Flames continued their run of dominance with a 42-28 win on the road at UTEP that wasn't as close as it might appear. Now, they'll look to stay perfect as they'll host New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game on Friday, Dec. 1.
23. Clemson Tigers
Not much of what Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers have done over the past month-plus has been particularly pleasing to the eye. However, the final scores have been as the Tigers have seemingly gotten this thing heading back in a positive direction. On Saturday night, that meant not losing to rival South Carolina for the second consecutive year. It was a complete war of attrition in Columbia but the Clemson defense held the Gamecocks to just 169 yards of offense, which proved to be more than enough for the 16-7 win on the road to finish 8-4.
22. Tulane Green Wave
Hand up, I was fully prepared for UTSA to prove that Tulane was fraudulent on Friday afternoon in Yulman Stadium. Instead, Willie Fritz's defense came to play in a massive way as they forced turnover after turnover from the Roadrunners. Michael Pratt and the offense weren't perfect, but were more than enough to secure a perfect record in AAC play and punch a ticket to the conference championship game with a possible NY6 bid on the line against SMU.
21. Oregon State Beavers
It'd be difficult to have a worse week at Oregon State than what we've seen over the past two days. Not only did the Beavers get shellacked in their rivalry game against Oregon in a 31-7 loss, but the day after, head coach Jonathan Smith accepted the job at Michigan State. Now, the Beavs will have their bowl game looming and should be wholly proud of this season, but their eyes will surely be on keeping what Smith has built in Corvallis rolling.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 20-16
20. Tennessee Volunteers
I've been pushing hard that Tennessee should not be ranked but here they are. For as down as I am on the Vols, Vanderbilt was never going to be a real match for Josh Heupel's team on Saturday and it showed. Joe Milton had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 383 and four scores while adding two rushing touchdowns. But the Vols still finish at just 8-4 and will certainly be looking toward the Nico Iamaleava era that should begin in 2024.
19. NC State Wolfpack
Many people were a bit surprised to see NC State crack the Top 25 in the latest CFP rankings, but Dave Doeren's team proved that it was the right call on Saturday night in Carter-Finley Stadium. Up against rival UNC, the Wolfpack put the work on the Tar Heels, completely stifling Drake Maye and the opposing offense while running amok over a much-maligned defense to pave the way for a blowout rivalry win that was more one-sided than even the 39-20 final score would indicate.
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Gundy didn't make a damn thing easy on himself on Oklahoma State, but the Pokes did what was necessary to get the win in Stillwater over BYU – even if took double overtime. Ollie Gordon II had another ridiculous stat line with 166 yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner. Now, the Cowboys will be heading to Arlington next week for a chance to spoil Texas' College Football Playoff aspirations.
17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Hilariously, Notre Dame was one of the teams in the final game ever broadcast on Pac-12 Network, on the road against historic rival Stanford. It wasn't much competition for the Irish, though, as Audric Estime steamrolled the Cardinal with a dominant 238-yard, four-touchdown performance that left Sam Hartman without much to worry about in the passing game. It was a blowout but, at 9-3, Notre Dame's postseason destination remains up in the air.
16. Iowa Hawkeyes
Death, taxes, and Iowa football hitting the under on a new record-low total. That was again the case this week with the total dipping as low as 24.5 before closing at 25.5. With the game tied at 10-10 against Nebraska late, though, chaos ensued with combatting turnovers and then the Hawkeyes' game-winning field goal from a kicker who hadn't taken a kick all year. But the win takes Iowa into the Big Ten Championship at 10-2… but their rockfight style might not be working too well when they meet up with Michigan in Indianapolis.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 15-11
15. Louisville Cardinals
Given that the CFP Selection Committee already had Louisville behind two-loss Missouri in the rankings, the Cardinals' chances of making the Playoff seemed unlikely at best. But after Saturday, they no longer have a pulse. The Louisville defense got torn up by Ray Davis as Kentucky stunned Jeff Brohm in the Governor's Cup with a 38-31 upset win. Now with two losses, the best the Cards can do is play spoiler for Florida State in the ACC title bout.
14. Arizona Wildcats
Oregon's win in the rivalry formerly known as the Civil War eliminated Arizona's slim chance to play for the Pac-12 title, but that didn't stop Jedd Fisch from keeping this train rolling. The Wildcats poured it on ASU in the Territorial Cup as Noah Fifita continued his breakout season with 527 yards and five touchdowns in the 59-23 victory. Arizona will likely fall short of a NY6 bid, but they've quietly been one of the best stories in college football this season.
13. LSU Tigers
If you needed another reason why Jayden Daniels should be the Heisman Trophy winner, I present to you another monster showing against Texas A&M where LSU needed every bit to win. The game-changing play was a big run on fourth down while trailing 24-14 that sparked a Tigers comeback for the 42-30 victory, but he also finished the day with four touchdown passes and 355 yards of total offense. He's been the best individual player in the country, and he deserves that hardware.
12. Oklahoma Sooners
Well, any concerns you might've had about the Oklahoma defense weren't necessarily quelled as they finished off the regular season with a win over TCU by allowing 45 points to the Horned Frogs. Of course, that didn't remotely matter as the Sooners hung 69 on the board for a nice victory that moves them to 10-2 in the regular season. Oklahoma State's win means no rematch with Texas, though, so now OU will have to wait to see if they can get into a New Year's Six contest.
11. Ole Miss Rebels
The Egg Bowl is always among the wildest rivalry games every season and this year was no exception. Ole Miss prevailed in a 17-7 victory, but it looked much more difficult for Lane Kiffin's team than it should have against a truly broken Mississippi State team that recently fired Zach Arnett and is just trying to hold it together. A win is a win, though, and the Rebels are now 10-2 in the regular season for the second time under Kiffin, which hadn't been done in Oxford prior to his arrival.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 10-9
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
You couldn't write a more pitch-perfect script for the end of Penn State's regular season to exemplify what James Franklin's team is than their blowout victory on the road against Michigan State on Friday night.
Basically since the loss to Ohio State that featured an ugly offensive showing, we've viewed the Nittany Lions as the clear-cut third-best team in the Big Ten, but also as a team that was a tier below OSU and Michigan. We saw that in droves as Drew Allar, Kaytron Allen and the entire Penn State offense torched Michigan State while the defense completely suffocated Sparty, holding MSU to only 53 sack-adjusted total yards of offense.
With that emphatic win and Louisville's loss, Penn State now has a case for making a New Year's Six game and should comfortably vault back into the Top 10. However, the season is over until their bowl game as the losses to OSU and UofM eliminated their Big Ten and CFP chances several weeks ago.
9. Missouri Tigers
Shouts out to America's Team – the real one. Eli Drinkwitz gave an impassioned speech to the media after routing Arkansas in the Battle Line rivalry game on Friday afternoon about the adversity and obstacles that his Missouri team has overcome to get to this point and why that should endear the college football-watching parts of the country. And given that he has a 10-2 team vying for a New Year's Six bid, he might be right.
The win over the Hogs was dominant. Arkansas didn't register a first down in the first half while Missouri did almost whatever it wanted, particularly with Cody Schrader having another monster day with 217 yards rushing. With losses to LSU and Georgia on the season, the Tigers don't have any real chance at the Playoff. However, they are surely a New Year's Six lock as a team already ranked in the Top 10 and adding another notch to their belt in Rivalry Week.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 8-7
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium is often a house of horrors for Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide and rival Auburn almost made it so again on Saturday. This is despite the fact that Hugh Freeze's team came into the contest at just 6-5 in the regular season.
One could argue that Auburn actually should have won the Iron Bowl on Saturday. They had the Tide at fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line with under a minute left and with a 24-20 lead. The Tigers then inexplicably had eight men dropped into coverage with a senseless QB spy given the numbers dropped back while playing a soft zone. Isaiah Bond then found some space and Jalen Milroe found him for an electric and iconic moment in the game-winning score. Terrion Arnold added a pick-six as time expired to fully lock it up.
Bama is still alive for the CFP but needs big-time help. That starts next week in the one way that they can help themselves, though, and it's no easy task: Beating Georgia.
7. Texas Longhorns
For as much as we've seen the Texas Longhorns play with their food this season, so to speak, perhaps it wasn't the best idea for Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire and Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark to poke the bear. Or, if Yormark wants to see the soon-departing Longhorns turn into an unstoppable death machine to give the conference a chance at the natty before Texas bolts for the SEC, maybe it was the right thing.
Whatever the desires there are, Texas put a whoopin' on Texas Tech in Austin on Friday night. Every which way you could imagine, the Longhorns dominated. They limited the Red Raiders to 198 total yards, put up 528 yards of their own, got playing time for Arch Manning, and ultimately won by 50. There's no guarantee Texas is going to make the playoff but, if they continue to beat up on teams when they play Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title, it'll be difficult to deny the resumé of Steve Sarkisian's team.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 6-5
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
I'm not going to take a full-blown victory lap, but I've been preaching all season that Ohio State was overrated and not a true College Football Playoff contender based on the eye test, specifically with Kyle McCord's lackluster performance this season. And while it wasn't a blowout like it had been in the past two losses against Michigan, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes dropped their third straight in the rivalry and are now all but eliminated from the College Football Playoff as the list of contenders with the extra data point of conference championship games is larger than it was even a year ago.
McCord threw two back-breaking picks in this game, which didn't help. But the vaunted OSU defense also struggled to find consistent stops. Perhaps more damning, though, was Day's decision-making as he consistently played conservatively while his opponent and rival did not. One could argue that was the biggest difference in The Game, and why Ohio State will be watching the Playoff from home (or whatever New Year's Six venue they head to).
5. Oregon Ducks
While much of the college football world has been quick to give the Oregon Ducks their flowers, I've been a little more hesitant. Yes, Bo Nix and the rest of Dan Lanning's team have been dominant outside of the road loss to Washington… but the level of competition just wasn't there, having not played another team ranked inside the Week 13 CFP rankings. But on Friday night in Eugene, they delivered in a monster way.
Yes, Nix and the Oregon offense put up 31 points, but it was by far the most impressive defensive performance we've seen from the Ducks to date as they limited a talented Beavers attack to just seven points and 273 yards, including 53 rushing yards. That goes a long way to winning the eye test and resumé battle, but the biggest test will now be trying to get one back against Washington as the rematch is set for the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 4-3
4. Florida State Seminoles
Everyone in Tallahassee had nervous eyes on The Swamp for the heated rivalry matchup on Saturday as Florida State entered the contest facing severe adversity on the heels of losing star quarterback Jordan Travis for the rest of the season a week ago. And early on, it looked like that injury might sink the Seminoles' CFP plans.
Florida took an early 12-0 lead and FSU backup Tate Rodemaker looked like he was drowning out there. But the Noles defense combined with Trey Benson took control of the game and got things moving in the right direction. They eventually took the lead with a second-half field goal at 17-15, but sealed the win with a third Benson touchdown.
Florida State now finishes the regular season perfect and needs a win over Louisville in the ACC title game to get into the Playoff, which they should if they end up at 13-0, Jordan Travis or not.
3. Washington Huskies
It must be written in the fine print of the college football bylaws that the Washington Huskies are not allowed to play a stress-free game of football in the month of November this season. Why that rule was written remains to be seen, but we've seen it play out time and again with the Apple Cup being the latest example.
Frankly, this was an ugly game for Washington. The defense got diced up for much of the game by Wazzu QB Cam Ward while the high-powered Kalen DeBoer offense led by Michael Penix was pedestrian at best. Much like last week in Corvallis, though, they continued to come up with big stops, take advantage of the right bounces of the ball, and make the right plays. The final "right play" was a game-winning 42-yard field goal from Grady Gross as time expired.
Washington finished off its perfect regular season, but the job's not finished yet. They have a rematch with Oregon looming next week for the Pac-12 title, which they likely need to win in order to make the Playoff.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 13: No. 2-1
2. Michigan Wolverines
Another year, another Michigan win in The Game. The Wolverines, even without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines still, proved once again that they are superior to the rival Buckeyes as they notched a third consecutive win over Ohio State, 30-24.
It was a phenomenal team effort for Michigan in the win. Blake Corum has a big day with two touchdowns, J.J McCarthy came up with several big throws, interim head coach Sherrone Moore coached aggressively to win the game, and the defense had a monster day, including two interceptions, one setting the tone early and one sealing the victory.
This all but ensures that Michigan is going to be in the College Football Playoff as they opened as three-touchdown favorites in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa. For everyone who was worried about the Wolverines in The Game amid the sign-stealing scandal, though, all of that anxiety was for absolutely nothing.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
On the road in Atlanta for some Clean, Good, Old-Fashioned Hate against Georgia Tech, the No. 1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs weren't necessarily on their A-game in rivalry week. The offense got a little loose with the football, the defense didn't appear entirely locked in, and the Yellow Jackets hung around and hung around after taking an early lead in the game.
And yet, the Dawgs still got the victory. More importantly, anyone with eyes could tell you that Georgia put forth one of the most vanilla gameplans possible against truly inferior competition to not put anything more on film for next week's looming SEC Championship Game against Alabama with a CFP berth on the line.
It might not be as pretty as some would've liked, but it's a big win and the Dawgs extended their winning streak to 29 games. They'll need to make it 30 if they want to make sure they are in the Top 4 and have a chance to make it a three-peat in the natty.
