The preseason college football rankings have been set with the AP Top 25 announced. Which ranked teams will be the first to lose this season?
The AP Top 25 rankings have arrived right on schedule with the 2023 college football season set to kick off in just a couple of weeks.
Last year, nine teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 had suffered their first defeat by the end of Week 2.
First, let's look at some teams on early upset watch, then we'll predict the first five losers of the 2023 preseason Top 25…
College football rankings upset alert: Ones to watch early in 2023
Navy vs. No. 13 Notre Dame — Saturday, Aug. 26 [Dublin]
Notre Dame is favored by 20 points and rightly so. Still, this game is in Ireland and Navy gave last year's Notre Dame team fits in South Bend. Sam Hartman and new offensive coordinator Gerad Parker could have growing pains.
Florida at No. 14 Utah — Thursday, Aug. 31
The first real upset alert of the season may come on Thursday, Aug. 31 as the Utah Utes face off with the Florida Gators. Even though the Gators won last year's matchup, that was in Gainesville. The Utes are a different animal at Rice-Eccles Stadium. This wouldn't be on the radar if the health of quarterback Cameron Rising wasn't in question following his ACL tear in the Rose Bowl.
Colorado at No. 17 TCU — Saturday, Sept. 1
Deion Sanders' Colorado is the ultimate college football wild card. TCU is replacing eight NFL Draft picks including Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan. The potential for a National Championship Game loss hangover looms. This isn't a prediction. It just shouldn't surprise anyone if something wild happens.
College football rankings: North Carolina will be the 1st ranked team to lose in 2023
North Carolina has one of the nation's best quarterbacks, arguably the only passer who comes close to sitting in Tier 1 with USC's Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. So of course they deserve to be ranked to being the season. The AP set them at No. 21 in the preseason poll.
Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, that just set them up to be the first ranked team to lose in 2023.
The Dukes Mayo Classic on Sept. 2 will pit North Carolina against South Carolina in a rivalry game that has been played far too sparingly this century. The two teams have met five times since 1992 and the Gamecocks have won four of those meetings.
This year's matchup looks pretty evenly matched. SP+ ranks the Tar Heels 28th and the Gamecocks 33rd. SCar was just on the fringes of making the AP Top 25 themselves.
The return of Spencer Rattler makes picking the Gamecocks easier. While Maye and the Tar Heels were stumbling at the end of the 2022 season, Rattler led upsets of Tennessee and Clemson.
The confidence pick isn't particularly high here, but there's something about what Beamer is building that's just outshining Mack Brown and company going into this matchup.
College football rankings: Florida State will be the 2nd ranked team to lose in 2023
The first mega matchup of the season comes in Week 1 with No. 8 Florida State hosting No. 5 LSU in the college football version of Sunday Night Football at the Camping World Kickoff game.
One of those ranked teams is going to lose, but which one? Sorry Florida State, it's you.
The Seminoles have had their fair share of offseason hype. And why shouldn't they? Jordan Travis is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and they've only gotten stronger with the likes of TE Jaheim Bell, WR Keon Coleman, CB Frentrell Cypress and DL Draden Fiske joining via the transfer portal.
But this is a revenge game for LSU after last year's loss. Brian Kelly's Tigers grew across last season while Jayden Daniels looked more confident in his new home with each passing week. The No. 6 recruiting class and No. 2 transfer class have bolstered the roster. Speaking of transfer, LSU's defense added game changers in LB Omar Speights and CB Zy Alexander.
It'll be a dogfight but LSU will have the upper hand this time and Florida State will have to lick their wounds and take their frustrations out on the rest of the ACC.
College football rankings: Utah will be the 3rd ranked team to lose in 2023
The same concerns that have No. 14 Utah on upset watch in Week 1 against Florida will be in play in Week 2 against Baylor, but this time the Utes will get bit.
While Kyle Whittingham will be in friendly confines in that opening matchup, Week 2 sends the Utes to Waco to battle Dave Aranda's Bears.
The Bears were one of the more disappointing teams in college football last year. They followed up their 2021 Big 12 triumph with a losing record in 2022 as the wheels fell off the defense and the offensive couldn't make up for it. But Aranda is a strong defensive mind and he hired Oregon co-DC Matt Powledge to get things right.
Meanwhile, this matchup is still early enough in the season that Cam Rising's knee will still be a worry for the Utes.
It doesn't help that Utah has a mediocre history on the road. They lost to Florida last year in non-conference play and lost to BYU and San Diego State the year before. They have gone .500 away from home five times in the last six seasons.
This is simply a numbers game. The odds are in Baylor's favor.
College football rankings: Tulane will be the 4th ranked team to lose in 2023
Tulane was an incredible story last year, finishing the season at 12-2 thanks to a thrilling Cotton Bowl upset of USC. They come into 2023 with a touch of respect from the voters ranked No. 24.
The problem is they face No. 22 Ole Miss in Week 2.
It could be a huge opportunity for Willie Fritz to make an early statement against Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss. More likely, it's going to be an early disappointment.
Running back Tyjae Spears was the architect of that Cotton Bowl triumph and he's gone to the NFL along with LB Dorian Williams and S Macon Clark.
The Green Wave do return the core of their offensive line as well as quarterback Michael Pratt and defensive standout CB Jarius Monroe. So they will be good again this year…just not as capable of taking down a team like Ole Miss.
The Rebels return quarterback Jaxson Dart but running back Quinshon Judkins will power Kiffin's usually-high-powered offense while the defense should be improved under new DC Pete Golding.
College football rankings: Texas will be the 5th ranked team to lose in 2023
Oh man is No. 11 Texas vs. No. 4 Alabama an intriguing matchup. The Longhorns had a two-point lead with 89 seconds to play last year, but their upset bid was spoiled by Bryce Young setting up a last-second field goal to win it for the Tide.
If Steve Sarkisian could take Bama to the brink last year, couldn't he actually pull it off this time?
Short answer: No. Don't bet on it.
Texas is going to contend for the Big 12 title, there shouldn't be doubt about that. However, the Longhorns are going into Tuscaloosa this time. And if they couldn't pull off a win against Alabama at DKR, expecting them to do it at Bryant Denny is a step too far.
Quinn Ewers gives Steve Sarkisian the advantage over Nick Saban in the quarterback battle. But Saban is an advantage over Sarkisian full stop. This is the kind of game Saban wins year in and year out. His roster is more talented than the Longhorns' and it's got to be hungry after last year's relative disappointment.
