TAMPA BAY (4-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (5-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
OPENING LINE: Colts by 2 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
AGAINST THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay 7-3; Indianapolis 6-4
SERIES RECORD: Colts lead 8-7
LAST MEETING: Buccaneers beat Colts 38-31 on Nov. 28, 2021, in Indianapolis.
LAST WEEK: Buccaneers lost to 49ers 27-14; Colts had a bye.
BUCCANEERS OFFENSE: OVERALL (22), RUSH (32), PASS (19), SCORING (23)
BUCCANEERS DEFENSE: OVERALL (26), RUSH (6), PASS (31), SCORING (9)
COLTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (14), RUSH (10), PASS (17), SCORING (9)
COLTS DEFENSE: OVERALL (25), RUSH (25), PASS (18T), SCORING (25)
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Buccaneers plus-6; Colts plus-1.
BUCCANEERS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,389 yards, 15 TDs and five interceptions while minimizing the mistakes that undermined him during previous stops in Cleveland, Carolina and with the Los Angeles Rams. The sixth-year pro has 10 TD passes and two interceptions in five road starts.
COLTS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Gardner Minshew has had a rocky season, particularly when it comes to turnovers. His eight giveaways led to a three-game losing streak that nearly derailed Indy's season. He has rebounded with only one turnover in the last two games, both wins. Ball security will be essential Sunday against one of the league's top teams in turnover margin.
KEY MATCHUP: Buccaneers run defense vs. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. The 2021 NFL rushing champ's last 100-yard game came in mid-November 2022. He has shown signs of ending that drought, but Tampa Bay has one of the NFL's stingiest run defenses and almost certainly expects DT Vita Vea to help slow down Taylor. The winner of this battle could emerge victorious.
KEY INJURIES: Three Bucs defensive players — LB Lavonte David (groin) and CBs Jamel Dean (foot) and Carlton Davis III (hip) — didn't finish last week’s game. S Ryan Neal (thumb), another defensive starter, was inactive against the 49ers. Their statuses will be determined later this week. ... Coming off the bye, three Colts players didn't practice Wednesday: starting CB JuJu Brent (quad), TE Drew Ogletree (foot) and backup LB Grant Stuard (knee). ... Starting C Ryan Kelly entered the concussion protocol for the second time this season against New England and did limited work Wednesday. ... S Rodney Thomas II (knee) also did limited work. ... DT Grover Stewart will sit out again with his six-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances.
SERIES NOTES: Tampa Bay has won two straight and three of the last four in this series. This will be the Bucs' third trip to Lucas Oil Stadium. ... Longtime Colts foil Tom Brady made his final appearance in Indianapolis with the Bucs. ... Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy finished his career in Tampa Bay as the career victories leader. Jon Gruden later passed Dungy (56) on the Bucs' list. Dungy remains tied with Weeb Ewbank (112) atop the Colts' career wins list. ... The most memorable game in this series came in 2003 when Indy rallied from a 21-point deficit in the final five minutes of regulation to force overtime. Indy won 38-35 when the Bucs drew a leaping penalty and K Mike Vanderjagt took advantage of his second chance at the decisive field goal.
STATS & STUFF: Since winning their first two road games of the season, the Bucs have lost three straight on the road. They've lost five of six overall. ... Rachaad White ranks second among NFL running backs in yards receiving (354) behind Christian McCaffery (364). He’s third in receptions (41), trailing Alvin Kamara (50) and McCaffery (43). ... Tampa Bay’s offensive line has struggled to open holes in the running game, but has done a better job protecting Mayfield. It has yielded 20 sacks, tied for fifth fewest in the NFL. ... WR Mike Evans (48 receptions, 708 yards) is on track for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season. He has caught seven TD passes. Mayfield has thrown 10 or more passes in his direction five times this season, including each of the past two games. ... Bucs rookies Yaya Diaby and Calijah Kancey have combined for 13 tackles for loss, 12 quarterback hits, six sacks and 35 pressures. ... The Bucs' defense has yielded just four TDs runs, tied with Baltimore and Atlanta for second fewest in the league. ... Indy has won two in a row to get back to .500 but is just 1-4 at home this season. ... The Colts' streak of scoring 20 or more points ended before the bye week. They're still tied for the league lead with nine 20-point games. ... Over the past two games, Indy's defense has scored two TDs and allowed just 19 points. It had allowed 114 points over the previous three games. ... Taylor is getting the bulk of the carries for the Colts now, but RB Zack Moss ranks fourth among qualified rushers in yards per game (68.6). ... Rookie WR Josh Downs has more receptions through 10 games (43) than anyone in Colts history. His 523 yards rank second on the franchise's list, behind only Bill Brooks (613 in 1986). ... Indy waived three-time All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard on Tuesday. ... Two-time Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner needs two sacks for 60 in his career. ... Indy has allowed 10 100-yard rushers since 2013, the third-lowest total in the NFL.
FANTASY TIP: Michael Pittman Jr. Indy's top receiver has been targeted 33 times in the last three games and has hauled in24 receptions for 192 yards and one TD. That part likely won't change this week. But his productivity could against the NFL's second-worst pass defense. Plus, facing the team with which his father won a Super Bowl ring could create extra motivation for Pittman.
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