Going over and under the Big 12 football win total projections for Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and more for the 2023 season.
The Big 12 Conference will usher in a new era, with 14 teams for just one season in 2023.
The member count for Big 12 football has officially hit 14 for just the 2023 campaign with the looming departures of Texas and Oklahoma for the SEC. Not only that but combined with the attrition from some of the top teams in the league, it creates one of the most uncertain offseasons the conference has seen.
Even with the community unknown, betting books have taken to the forefront with the Big 12 football over/under win totals for 2023.
Here's what Vegas has to say and how it matches up, according to FanDuel. And more importantly, whether or not each team will go over or under their win totals in the 2023 college football season.
Big 12 football win total predictions: Baylor – 7.5 wins
The Bears won the Big 12 schedule lottery, snagging eight home games in 2023, including five of the first six. Baylor gets Utah and Texas at home in the first four weeks, so the test comes early.
With the number of contributors returning on Offense and some personnel changes on defense, the Bears should be closer to a nine-win team in 2023 than a six-win club.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions – BYU: 4.5 wins
The Cougars are not given any favors in year one with road trips to Arkansas, TCU, Texas and a season-finale at Oklahoma State. The Cougars will be competitive in most games, and getting over four wins shouldn't be a tall task.
BYU loses a bit of talent from last year but brings in a well-traveled Kedon Slovis at quarterback and adds an offensive lineman through the portal that can help him out.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: Cincinnati – 5.5 wins
The Bearcats will get challenged early, with Pittsburgh and Oklahoma in the first four weeks. Outside of the trip to Norman, there isn't a game they're heavy underdogs in.
The Bearcats avoid Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas State, all with a higher win total odds than the Bearcats.
The path to six wins will be challenging with a new team getting used to the landscape of a unique conference, but there is a path in 2023.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: Houston – 4.5 wins
The Cougars will get used to staying in state. Houston leaves Texas twice all season, and it's Oct. 28 against Kansas State and the season-finale at UCF.
Quarterback Donovan Smith switched from Lubbock to Houston this offseason and is more than familiar with the Big 12 environment.
The biggest hurdle is getting used to the conferences' depth, especially in the trenches. Houston lost nine offensive linemen to the portal, and wide receiver Tank Dell is staying in town but down the road in Reliant Stadium.
Staying in state and an upset or two could get the Cougars over the mark.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: Iowa State – 5.5 wins
The Cyclones have taken a nose-dive since their standout 2020 season, ending with a Fiesta Bowl win. They brought the whole group back for 2021 and underperformed. In 2022, the Offense took a drastic step back, with a nearly non-existent running game.
Quarterback Hunter Dekkers is looking for a new go-to target with WR Xavier Hutchinson off to the NFL.
The Cyclones have a brutal conference slate, with getting the Oklahoma schools back-to-back and road games at Baylor, BYU and Kansas State to end the year.
It could go downhill very quickly in Ames.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: Kansas – 5.5 wins
The Jayhawks got some outstanding home games in 2022, especially early in the year. The trend continues this year with Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas State all at home.
But now, with preseason hype to be a threat, can they exceed last year's expectations? Getting to five is doable, but finding a sixth win is hard if they field the same defense as the previous year and Jalon Daniels can't perform an encore.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: Kansas State – 7.5 wins
The good news for the defending Big 12 Champions is any road games in 2023 will be in places the program is familiar with. They avoid playing new teams on the road, with games against UCF and Houston in Manhattan.
Four of their final six games are at home, with critical games against Texas and Kansas as lone threats away from Manhattan.
Kansas State lost a ton, especially on defense. The Wildcats do have among the best offensive lines in the league, led by guard Cooper Beebe.
Quarterback Will Howard found his groove, Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward is a solid Deuce Vaughn replacement, and Howard has enough returning production to help carry the offense.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: Oklahoma – 9.5 wins
9.5 is too high. Even for Oklahoma standards, a six-win 2023 was a hard reality for Sooner fans to swallow.
Looking purely off of their opponents and the Sooner standard, going over on 9.5 is a safe bet. However, these Sooners do have some roster issues. The wide receiver position has talent but only some experience outside of Drake Stoops.
Oklahoma's pass defense was the worst in the league, and the run defense was second-worst. They addressed some issues in the portal, but I wonder if it's enough to get to 10 wins in the regular season.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: Oklahoma State – 6.5 wins
This argument might be one of Mike Gundy's least-talented rosters since the 2000s. Yet, it's a team projected to make a bowl game. It shows the program built in Stillwater.
Alan Bowman gets a second chance in the Big 12, sporting the Orange and Black. The defense stepped back from 2021, but the schedule is highly favorable.
Their five road games are against teams with lower O/U win totals, and the only two teams with better on the entire slate are Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: TCU – 7.5 wins
Although 7.5 wins could look good halfway into the season, the Horned Frogs' schedule is backloaded with road matchups against Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Sandwiched in between are rivalry games against Texas and Baylor.
Brand new coaches, personnel and leadership on offense could get conflicting, and the Horned Frogs are replacing a bunch up front.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: Texas – 9.5 wins
Everything should line up for the Longhorns: Elite wide receiver depth, a ton of returning offensive linemen and a gun-slinging quarterback.
Even an improved secondary is a cherry on top of many people's pick to win the league in 2023. Alabama is the prominent game of the year, and Red River is always fireworks.
The difference in this O/U could be BYU/Kansas State back-to-back in late October. Playing those styles twice in a row could tell a lot about Texas. Follow that up with a road trip to TCU, a place they've won once since 2014.
Prediction: Over
Big 12 football win total predictions: Texas Tech – 7.5 wins
The preseason hype has stayed the same in Lubbock since the late Mike Leach roamed the sidelines. Quarterback Tyler Shough could not have ended on a higher note, and Tech finishing 8-5 last season provides promise.
However, Shough staying healthy has been a problem his whole career. He has yet to play an entire 12-game season.
The defense lost star Tyree Wilson and was a unit that was below average in the Big 12, to begin with. Combining that with ranking eighth in interceptions and losing safety Reggie Pearson to Oklahoma could be too much.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: UCF – 6.5 wins
The draft book seems to like UCF the most out of the new teams entering and for a good reason. The Knights boast the best player of the incoming group in quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.
A middle section of the schedule could turn into a snowball effect. UCF will go almost a month without playing at home, with a road trip to Kansas, a bye week, and another road game in Oklahoma.
They also get K-State on the road and a mixed bag in the final 3-4 games.
Prediction: Under
Big 12 football win total predictions: West Virginia – 5.5 wins
It has been quite the mess in Morgantown since the 2018 squad. Outside of a bowl game appearance, it will likely be Neal Brown's last season coaching the Mountaineers.
And I don't see West Virginia getting to that. Getting Penn State and Pittsburgh in the non-conference is just a sampler. Four of the final five road games are against teams with better O/U win totals.
The Mountaineers picked up just a few impact transfers and will be breaking in a new starting quarterback with Garrett Greene.
Prediction: Under
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