AT&T Byron Nelson picks and best bets at TPC Craig Ranch this week as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.
On the heels of Wyndham Clark's runaway win at Quail Hollow and a week before the second major of the year at the PGA Championship, we're heading to TPC Craig Ranch this week for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.
K.H. Lee is back at the event he's been dominating for the past few years as he looks for a three-peat as the two-time defending champ at TPC Craig Ranch. However, with home-state guy Scottie Scheffler headlining this field — though another Texan, Jordan Spieth, has withdrawn — Lee will obviously face a big task in trying to get another win.
The Wells Fargo was a nice bounce back in terms of our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets as we went up 2.85 units on the week with a Tyrrell Hatton Top 10 and Rickie Fowler Top 20. It could've been bigger but we'll take a plus week. Now let's start a winning streak.
We're diving into our AT&T Byron Nelson picks and best bets for the week with PGA Tour expert picks for Top 10, winner and much more.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Wells Fargo: 24-69-2, -9.794 units (0-18 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +2.85 units at Wells Fargo)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $4,279,269.22 (Viktor Hovland at Wells Fargo, $69,000)
PGA Tour expert picks for AT&T Byron Nelson: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee (+240, DraftKings)
You're telling me that I'm getting +240 odds for K.H. Lee, the back-to-back winner of this tournament who is also coming off of a T8 at the Wells Fargo in a substantially more loaded field, to finish in the Top 10? That's too tasty for me too pass up. Lee has been trending towards a place he clearly loves as he's sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 12 rounds. I love for him to keep up his good form at TPC Craig Ranch and cash this.
Pick to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson (0.5 Units): Tom Kim (+1900)
I've been highly critical of Tom Kim because it felt like he was being overvalued, particularly in designated events. But the form is starting to show back up and now we're in a weak field at a course that could fit him very well. Kim ranks third in the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 12 rounds and has experience at TPC Craig Ranch after a T17 here last year. With that, I think he comes in and delivers a strong showing that could very well result in a win at odds I'm comfortable with given the weakness of this field.
One and Done Pick for AT&T Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee
This should be pretty self-explanatory. There is a back-to-back champion who has been trending with his form coming into his quest for a three-peat. Lee at this course, to me, has such a high floor that I'm more than comfortable having him as a One and Done pick this week with a winning ceiling (obviously) combined with that.
AT&T Byron Nelson picks and best bets
J.J. Spaun to finish Top 20 (+220, DraftKings)
Quietly, J.J. Spaun has just one finish worse than T27 in his last five starts and we're starting to see some great form from a guy who won last year, gaining 1.66 strokes ball striking over his last 12 rounds. At a course where I don't think his recently inconsistent short game will come into play all that much and where birdies are going to be plentiful, I think he's a live option to get us a Top 20 this week.
Michael Kim to finish Top 40
It might've been a long time in the wilderness for Michael Kim but he's starting to show a boatload of positive signs, not the least of which is sitting at fifth in this field in total strokes gained over the last 12 rounds. Kim has also T46 or better in each of his last six starts, even in stronger fields than this. Though the AT&T Byron Nelson hasn't been his favorite spot, I love getting moderate odds to get him inside the Top 40 this week.
Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Kuchar to both finish Top 20
We're going back to one of these cheeky parlays but I'm all for it. Hatton continues to be a stud in the background right now with his ball strikings and is the best player in the field not named Scheffler. Meanwhile, Kuchar has also been humming, finishing T23 or better in each of his last four starts and with two straight Top 20 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch. Together, this feels like a nice way to attack the board.
Longshot pick to win the AT&T Byron Nelson (0.1 Units): Ryan Palmer (+15000)
Perhaps I'm buying too much into a home-state narrative here, but Palmer finished T5 at this tournament last year and is showing really positive signs with his ball striking as of late. With this field, it's hard to fully buy into a longshot. But with Palmer's history and form seeming to be trending in the right way, why not take a little shot on him this week?
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