"The best-laid plans of mice and men" is a popular adage that actually describes NFL contracts, or professional sports contracts in general. The idea is that a player signs a large contract based on his past performance, and the team is expecting similar or better performances in the years following the new contract. As the full quote mentions, these plans often go awry.
Neither NFL teams nor their general managers have a crystal ball hidden somewhere in their offices. When it comes to predicting how well a player will perform on a new deal, the average fan's guess is just as good as a scout with 20 years of experience. Nobody knows for sure. Evidence of that fact can be found as recently as the 2023 NFL offseason. The following are five players whose new contracts are already looking like failures.
5. Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars — 3 years, $41.25 million
Over the last three seasons, Engram has averaged 3.8 catches per game for 38 yards per game. Not the kind of performance that one would think would constitute an AAV of roughly $14 million. The Jaguars thought it did, and so they signed the tight end to a three-year contract extension.
In the first game of 2023, Engram hauled in 5 catches for 49 yards and no touchdowns. Well his performance does supersede his averages over the last three seasons, and two of those catches did result in first downs, it's still a lot to pay for a little bit of production. This is a contract that they will come to regret, if they don't already.
4. Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens — 1 year, $18 million
Beckham missed all of 2022 with an injury and has shown an inability to stay on the field. The two seasons prior, he played a combined 21 games, averaging 3.2 catches pregame for 41 yards per game. Definitely not numbers deserving of the mini-bidding war that teams partook in to try and earn his services.
While the Baltimore Ravens did not make a long-term commitment, agreeing on just a one-year deal, it was for $18 million. The idea was for him to become the number one receiver on the team and a reliable target for quarterback Lamar Jackson. In his first game, he was only targeted three times, and hauled in two receptions for 37 yards.
3. Dre'Mont Jones, Seattle Seahawks — 3 years, $51.5 million
Over the two seasons prior to signing his new contract, Jones averaged two solo tackles per game, two assists, and half a sack. Those are rotational player numbers. You would expect those statistics from a guy who primarily plays special teams, and occasionally gets in on some defensive snaps. You would not expect somebody putting up those stats to get $17 million per year.
Though it would seem nearly impossible to underperform the last two seasons averages, in a 30-10 loss to the Rams, Jones racked up just two assists. The Seahawks gave up 426 yards of offense to Los Angeles. In a game where they needed a highly-paid defensive player to make a few stops, Dre'Mont Jones was no help at all.
2. Juju Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots — 3 years, $33 million
Over the last two seasons, Schuster put up nearly identical stats per game as Jakobi Meyers (4.9 catches for 56 yards, and 2.8 first downs). They're almost the same size and the same age. Despite this, New England let Meyers go to Las Vegas on a contract for the same annual value as Schuster, but for one year less.
Juju was projected to be the number-one receiver on a team desperately in need of receiving help. In the first game of the season, he was targeted seven times, and caught four passes, for 33 yards. Meyers had nine catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns. For the same money, they could have gotten more production from a guy who was familiar with the playbook, and a true Patriot at heart.
1. Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 4 years, $160 million
Even though he didn't change teams, this article is about offseason signings that are failures, not offseason free agent signings that are failures. Daniel Jones' entire career has pretty much been mediocre at best. In the NFL though, if you want to keep your quarterback around, you have to back up the Brinks truck. The Giants did just that for Jones, giving him a four-year contract with an AAV of $40 million.
In the first game of the season, Daniel Jones rewarded the Giants by going 15 of 28 passing (53.6 completion percentage) for 104 yards with no touchdowns, and two interceptions. To put into perspective how bad he was in that first game, Aaron Rodgers threw one pass (which was incomplete) for 0 yards for the Jets before getting injured in his debut Monday night. His passer rating was better than Daniel Jones (39.6 to 32.4).
