Over the last two-and-a-half seasons at the helm of the Atlanta Falcons, Arthur Smith's team has been mediocre. They have been the epitome of a 7-10 team, good enough to regularly beat the dreck of the league, but never quite good enough to put a winning streak together. The upper crust of the NFL has been out of reach for the Dirty Birds for the better part of a decade now. This is getting old.
In total transparency, this is the NFL franchise I root for, and I would not move off Smith this season. This is the first year he and general manager Terry Fontenot have had financial capital to actively participate in NFL free agency. The defense is much improved this year under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen coming over from New Orleans, yet Smith's offense has largely stagnated under his watch.
This may have more to do with him not having a franchise quarterback. Matt Ryan was running on fumes when he first arrived in 2021. Marcus Mariota is a reckless backup who lives to turn the ball over. Desmond Ridder seems like a good guy, but he has a very low ceiling. Taylor Heinicke is fun to watch and easy to root for, but even the local product is not going to win playoff games in The ATL.
So for the sake of the young offensive talent this underperforming team possesses, whether it be third-year pro tight end Kyle Pitts, second-year pro wide receiver Drake London, or rookie running back Bijan Robinson, let's say Falcons owner Arthur Blank pulls the plug on the Smith era at the end of the season... Here are five offensive minds who I think could do a fine job leading the Dirty Birds.
Atlanta Falcons: 5 potential replacements for Arthur Smith as head coach
5. Shane Waldron has been key in Seattle Seahawks staying afloat of late
Admittedly, I think Arthur Blank will be reticent to hire another coordinator from the Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll after how the Dan Quinn era went up in flames in Flowery Branch. However, the job that Shane Waldron has done offensively in the Pacific Northwest does not get the attention it probably deserves. He had Geno Smith starting playoff games for the Seahawks, for crying out loud?!
Give Smith a ton of credit for totally redeeming himself in Seattle, but Waldron may be the straw that stirs the drink over there. Over the last two offseason cycles, Waldron's name has started to come up in serious head-coaching conversations. Although he still may be a year away from being a year away, he does seem to run a balanced offense that uses all parts of the field. Atlanta could use that...
To me, I think the Quinn wrinkle in all this probably keeps Waldron from being a real serious candidate to replace Smith should he fail this season. However, if Smith gets one more year to prove himself and Waldron stays put in Seattle for another campaign, it would not shock me to see him come to Flowery Branch to lead the Falcons in 2025. Either way, I expect that Waldron will be a serious candidate soon.
Waldron is also a candidate to replace Carroll from within, should he decide that he wants to retire.
4. Press Taylor is Zac Taylor's little brother, but he is Doug Pederson's guy
Keep an eye on Zac Taylor's kid brother, Press Taylor. He may be the younger brother of the Cincinnati Bengals head coach, but Taylor has quitely emerged as one of the best proteges of Doug Pederson. I first heard about Taylor when he was on Pederson's Philadelphia Eagles staffs a few years ago. Now in his second season as the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator, there could be something here.
He may be elevated by his association with Pederson, as well as Trevor Lawrence being a generational talent at quarterback. However, I think there is a chance we may see a pair of brothers leading NFL teams next season, and it is not The Harbaughs... Taylor may only be in his mid-30s, but he is well on his way towards becoming an NFL head coach like his older brother Zac is in Cincinnati.
The other thing I like about Taylor's potential candidacy in Atlanta is Jacksonville was the stomping grounds for arguably the greatest head coach in Falcons history in the vastly underrated Mike Smith. Although the NFL game quickly changed on Smitty, he was a good man and helped bring a level of consistency to this downtrodden NFC South franchise. Maybe double-dipping in Duval could work?
Taylor might be a year away from being a year away, but so was his older brother when he got hired.
3. Kellen Moore may not even have to unpack his bags in Los Angeles
Now we have arrived at the first of three head-coaching candidates I would seriously consider pivoting off Arthur Smith for this offseason, if that is what Arthur Blank wants to do. Kellen Moore is in his first season as the Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator, but he may not even have to unpack his bags at this point. It has everything to do with their current head coach, Brandon Staley.
Even if Dean Spanos decided it was time to move off Staley, there are no guarantees that Moore would be a candidate to be promoted from within. The thought was this time last year that he might be a candidate to be promoted from within at his previous post in Dallas. This was assuming if Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn left DFW for his second NFL head-coaching opportunity.
What I like about Moore is he is not only a play-caller, but a former professional quarterback. He may be a legend in college from his days at Fresno State, but it is abundantly clear that he views himself as an NFL coach. He could have led his alma mater after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn a few years ago, but he could be looking for something better. Atlanta should look at Moore if Smith is not the answer.
Moore may have other opportunities available, but keep in mind that his stock has taken a ding, too.
2. Brian Callahan has been instrumental in Cincinnati Bengals' turnaround
I may be higher on Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan more than most, but I feel strongly that this is the year he becomes an NFL head coach like his father Bill Callahan did two decades ago. Admittedly, that was under different circumstances. Bill Callahan was promoted from within on the Oakland Raiders after head coach Jon Gruden was dealt to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
What I like about Callahan is that he is different than his father. Yes, Zac Taylor played for him at Nebraska, but that's not the point. This is not nepotism; he is a good coach! Bill Callahan is an all-timer when it comes to coaching up the offensive line. Brian Callahan does a fantastic job of using the run and pass effectively in Cincinnati. He provides balance to this offense built around Joe Burrow.
While Atlanta will need to upgrade at quarterback for a hot-shot coordinator like Callahan to leave, I believe that what he has demonstrated in Cincinnati can be somewhat replicated in Atlanta with the Falcons' skill-position players. Whether it be Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, whomever, the Falcons could be infinitely more explosive offenisvely with Callahan calling the shots.
Callahan may only get one shot as an NFL head coach, so he better choose wisely with his first gig.
1. Ben Johnson could haunt Carolina Panthers' dreams for passing on him
Of all the potential candidates the Falcons could look to replace Arthur Smith with next season, the one that would do it for me would have to be Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. He has flourished on Dan Campbell's staff, as he has been empowered by his CEO-type head coach to go be excellent, man. Could you imagine if the Carolina Panthers hired him instead of Frank Reich?
In a way, the Falcons hiring Johnson would be on-par with them hiring Brian Callahan. The biggest difference is that I would know completely who is stirring the drink offensively. Callahan is very bright too, but you do have to wonder how much control Zac Taylor has over the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive play-calling. Since Campbell is a former tight end, it is all about Johnson in Detroit, man.
Since Johnson was a fresh face on the coaching carousel last season, a woebegone franchise like Atlanta could take advantage of his dark-horsed nature and pry him out of Detroit before a better-run organization does. What I really like about Johnson's offense is that it is punishing, aggressive and always looking to score points. The Falcons' skill-position players may really like the sound of that.
If the Falcons hire Johnson and win big, it would be a twisting of the knife in the Panthers' side, too.
