The Golden State Warriors are on a five-game losing streak with losses against the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves twice, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Oklahoma City Thunder. While dropping five games to four excellent teams isn't the end of the world, the Warriors fancied themselves a contender after a 6-2 start. Staring at a 6-7 record and without Draymond Green and Stephen Curry, the Warriors are suddenly in a hole that won't stop digging.
The Warriors blazing beginning to frigid five games
In their opening eight games, they sported an offensive rating of 117.4 and a defensive rating of 111.6. However, during their five-game losing streak, they've slumped to a 108.3 offensive rating and 116.2 defensive rating. The league average offensive and defensive rating is 113.4, meaning the Warriors went from well above average on both ends to well below.
The simplest explanation for their reversal of fortunes lies in 3-point shooting. Their 3-point shooting has cratered from 36.3 percent during their 6-2 start to 32.1 percent over the past five. And their opponents' 3-point shooting went from a frigid 33.3 percent to a scorching 40.5 percent. 3-point shooting variance can explain a lot, but it doesn't explain everything.
The Warriors' gravest concern is their 2-point efficiency has fallen from 53.7 percent to 47.7 percent during the streak. 3-point shooting is far more variable than 2-point efficiency, suggesting a drop in shot quality that won't fix itself, especially without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the fold.
Steph Curry and Draymond Green papered over the cracks
Curry got off to a blazing start to the season, averaging 30.7 points per game on 46.6 percent 3-point shooting and squarely putting himself in the MVP discussion. Green, while known as the Warriors' defensive anchor, has had an impressive start on offense for his standards. Through nine games, he's averaging 8.8 points and 5.7 assists per game on 45 percent shooting from three.
Losing your best offensive and defensive player will always sting, but the Warriors' losing streak started with the pair on the court and looks poised to get worse without them. These are the three Warriors who need to step up in their absence if they want to end their losing streak.
The Warriors need their other stars to step up
Usually, when stars go down, the coaching staff turns to the bench and asks, "Who's ready to seize the moment?" However, usually, when stars go down, the team's next-best players aren't their biggest problems. The Warriors got off to a 6-2 start, despite the struggles of Chris Paul, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson, and during their five-game skid, their woes have only intensified.
Over the Warriors' first eight games, the trio shot 42 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range but have somehow been worse over the past five games, dropping to 36.3 percent from the field and 26.9 percent on threes. The Warriors need and expect more from two future Hall of Famers and a former All-Star. Here's how each can get back on track and rise to the occasion.
Warrior who needs to step up: Chris Paul
Of the three, Chris Paul has had the best start to the season. His assist-to-turnover ratio is sublime, the Warriors' defense is stout with him on the court, and at 38 years old, he was only expected to carry the bench, not the whole team. However, desperate times call for desperate measures.
Paul's passing has gone from cyborg sent from the future to save humanity good to merely Hall of Fame point guard good. Over the first eight games, he notched 7.8 assists per game against 0.8 turnovers but has slumped to 6.0 assists per game against 2.2 turnovers. While Paul can be better, as he has shown, a nearly 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is still excellent.
The most important thing for Paul is for him to regain his mid-range stroke and attack the rim with more frequency. Even though his 3-point shooting has been poor, a career-worst 26.1 percent, it has improved markedly during the Warriors' five-game losing streak and is less of a concern for him moving forward. Over their first eight games, he shot 13.8 percent from three, but that has rebounded nicely to 47.1 percent over their past five.
The canary in the coal mine that Paul is hitting the age-induced point of no return is his inability or unwillingness to challenge the rim. This season, Paul is attempting 0.9 percent of his field goal attempts zero to three feet from the rim. Out of 117 field goal attempts, he has one that has come within three feet of the rim, which he hit, but he needs to get to the basket with more frequency for the Warriors to right the ship.
The bread and butter of Paul's scoring has always been the mid-range jumper 10 to 16 feet from the basket. This season, he has only converted 42.4 percent of his attempts, below the league average of 43 percent, and is the lowest mark since his rookie season in 2005-06. For his career, he's a 49.3 percent shooter on those shots, and over the previous four seasons, he converted 52.9 percent. He should improve in that region, but the Warriors need it now.
Warrior who needs to step up: Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson has had a rough start to the season. He's shooting a career-worst 32.9 percent from 3 and scoring the fewest points per game since his rookie season. With Thompson, everything starts and ends with his 3-point shooting.
Following two lost seasons to an Achilles and ACL injury, Thompson's days as a positive wing defender are behind him, but he has remained a valuable player by being a high-volume high-efficiency 3-point shooter.
Elite 3-point proficiency has allowed the rest of Thompson's game to shine. The threat of his shot sucks defenders out of the paint and gives him lanes to the rim. With his 3-point stroke abandoning him, he's attempting a career-low 2.6 percent of his shots zero to three feet from the basket.
His overall 2-point shooting is actually higher this season than it was last season, but that's due to an unsustainable 59.3 percent shooting on long twos. Unfortunately, there's not much more to say about Thompson. He's a one-trick pony at this point, and if that trick, hitting an absurd number of 3s, isn't working, he's a negative player.
The Warriors may need to get creative to get him going, especially with Curry and Draymond out, but he still needs to hit shots. Thompson is a future Hall of Famer, but injuries and time have eroded many of his skills. He should still be able to light it up from deep, but if he can't, the Warriors skid will continue.
Warrior who needs to step up: Andrew Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins has been one of the worst players in the NBA this season. The Warriors are plus-21.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, and his negative-0.6 Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP) is the worst in the league.
When the Warriors won their most recent championship, much of the talk was over how Wiggins' performance throughout the playoffs was the difference. And last season, a big reason for their inconsistent play was his extended absence attending to personal matters.
Wiggins is a big part of the Warriors' recent success, and his shortcomings this season have hurt them tremendously. Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, there's really no one place to start with Wiggins, as he's been poor across the board.
The Warriors need Wiggins to start being a difference-maker literally anywhere. All of his box score numbers are down, except for an increase in turnovers, where up is down. With Stephen Curry and Draymond Green out, the Warriors need Wiggins to either shoulder a larger offensive load or lock down on defense. While doing both would be ideal, just improving on one side of the ball could help stabilize the situation.
