The Chicago Cubs are looking to make a big splash this offseason. They narrowly missed out on a postseason berth this past season, and seem to be doing everything in their power to get back to playing meaningful October baseball for the first time (with fans) since 2018.
The Brewers, on the other hand, find themselves in a difficult position. They just won the NL Central and have made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, but that was with Craig Counsell as their manager. Counsell is now the Cubs manager after Chicago shocked the world by stealing him away.
Milwaukee could try to compete in 2024, but their window is closing quickly with so many of their key players, including Corbin Burnes, hitting free agency within the next year or two. If they do decide to tear it down, Burnes becomes a prime trade candidate that many teams, including the Cubs, will try to acquire. As badly as Chicago might want a pitcher of his caliber, there are more reasons to believe a Burnes trade to the Cubs will not happen.
Corbin Burnes to the Cubs won't happen because they're Milwaukee's division rivals
Let's get the obvious one out of the way first. The chances of the Brewers trading Corbin Burnes, one of the best pitchers in baseball, within their division, are pretty non-existent. Why would Milwaukee choose to send Burnes to a team they'd be facing 13 times each year and competing with in the NL Central?
This can go even deeper than just a division rivalry thing. First, the Cubs have the means to extend Burnes. It's one thing to send him to a team like the Pirates who wouldn't extend Burnes past the 2024 season. Burnes could very easily remain a Chicago Cub for the long haul, and an extension could even be signed before he reaches free agency. That's something Milwaukee will want to avoid.
Additionally, the Cubs just stole Craig Counsell from them and Milwaukee is obviously not happy with that. Gifting him one of the best pitchers in the National League doesn't sound like something Milwaukee would even entertain barring an absolutely monster haul.
Corbin Burnes to the Cubs won't happen because he has one year left on his contract
Burnes would make any rotation a whole lot better, but a trade for him would come with significant risk. He's set to hit free agency after the 2024 season. Parting with significant prospects and potentially big-league capital to land a rental carries significant risk.
The Cubs would be better positioned to retain Burnes past the 2024 season due to the money at their disposal than most, but that doesn't mean Burnes will want to stay there or that things would work out. If the Cubs make this trade, fail to win a World Series, and then fail to re-sign him, it'll be a failure.
The Cubs especially would have to offer an astronomical amount just to get Milwaukee's attention. Risking that on a player who could walk out the door is something they've done before (Aroldis Chapman) but isn't super common in today's game.
The Cubs will likely choose to prioritize either signing a free agent or trading for a pitcher with more than one year of team control. This at least gives them a little bit of cushion if the team fails to win in its first year with whatever player they acquire. Burnes makes a team 2024 World Series or bust, and Chicago isn't quite ready to be in that position yet even if they acquired a pitcher as good as Burnes.
Corbin Burnes to the Cubs won't happen because there's a good chance he isn't moved at all
The Brewers could look to sell off their pieces with the future in mind, but they also haven't rebuilt in a very long time. How likely is it that they actually trade away key players like Burnes or Willy Adames or Devin Williams? Probably not very, if we're being honest.
A big reason why many assume Milwaukee will begin to sell their talented players is because Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered by the team as he's expected to miss most, if not the entire 2024 season. Losing Woodruff is obviously a big blow, but this team won 92 games with him making just 11 starts for the team.
Outside of Woodruff, their next-biggest free agent is probably Wade Miley who was excellent this past season, but feels replaceable. The Brewers still have a stout rotation led by Burnes and Freddy Peralta, and could easily win the NL Central again.
Worst comes to worst, Milwaukee could deal Burnes away at the trade deadline if the team isn't competing. Trading him within the division and punting on the 2024 season while most of the 92-win team is in tact doesn't feel likely, even if it's what best for their future.
Corbin Burnes to the Cubs could actually happen because Chicago has the assets and the desperation to get a deal done
Again, there are more reasons to believe a Burnes trade to Chicago won't happen, but the Cubs' chances aren't exactly zero. The Cubs have both the assets and the desperation to get a deal like this done.
The Cubs have one of the best farm systems in the majors, including six players in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list. They have guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong (12) and Cade Horton (29) whom Milwaukee would likely covet. The Cubs likely won't want to move either for a rental, but the Brewers and their development staff getting their hands on a pitching prospect like Cade Horton could easily make them believe they have the next Corbin Burnes waiting in the wings. In other words, Chicago can hypothetically offer more than most other teams can. That should at least get the Brewers' attention.
If the Brewers want young controllable pieces, the Cubs have that too. Christopher Morel has five years of control and just hit 26 home runs this past season. Guys like Jordan Wicks and Alexander Canario made their debuts this past season and should have a good amount of value. Wicks in particular can be a nice get for Milwaukee.
The Cubs have everything Milwaukee would want, including the desperation to get a deal done. The Cubs are trying to get back to the postseason for the first time in a while, and need external help to get there. They'd ideally like to do their work in free agency, but what if players like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto opt to sign elsewhere?
If Chicago misses on all of the high-end free agent talent, they might turn to trade. A Burnes deal obviously isn't likely, but the Cubs could be desperate enough to give the Brewers an offer they simply cannot refuse.
