After last year's electric postseason run that saw them advance all the way to the World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies are once again in a position to do some damage in October. The club successfully clinched a postseason berth on Tuesday. While they were unable to win the National League East, they rather easily took home the top NL Wild Card spot.
Last year, practically the entire starting lineup easily carried the Phillies to a deep postseason run. JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper all posted a regular OPS+ of over 130 while the club's pitching staff was utterly dominant as well.
This year's crew is largely the same, adding and subtracting a few faces here and there. At the deadline, the biggest (and really, only) moves made were the one to bring Michael Lorenzen in from the Tigers and infielder Rodolfo Castro over from the Pirates. While the former threw a no-hitter in his first start in Philadelphia, his tenure has largely gone up in flames and is now not even close to a lock for the postseason starting rotation. The latter and his -27 OPS+ has been every bit as dreadful since the deadline, he may not make the postseason roster at all.
As always, there are a group of players on this star-studded roster that have the ability to singlehandedly alter the outcome of these high-stakes games that are coming up, for better or for worse. Let's check out the three most prominent examples.
Phillies who will make-or-break another World Series run: Trea Turner
This is a rather obvious one, but Trea Turner didn't come even close to the same level of production this year that he had shown throughout his previous eight years in the big leagues. He signed a gigantic 11-year contract with the Phillies this past offseason and was supposed to be "the next big thing" in town.
In April, the superstar hit just .260 and he followed that up with an even worse May, hitting .208 in 25 games. All of a sudden, he was beginning to lose the faith of the always-harsh Phillies fanbase. A strong month of June in which he posted an OPS+ over 100 started to turn things around, but he once again faltered in July.
Then, as if somebody flipped a switch, the speedy infielder caught fire, hitting nine home runs with 26 RBI in the month of August, posting a .333 average with a ridiculous 1.061 OPS. Since then, he has not looked back in the slightest and the Phillies have themselves the top-tier player they thought they'd be getting when they signed him in free agency.
Someone like Turner, who is such a huge presence both at the plate and in the field, has the ability to do great things on a baseball field. However, he also is capable of laying an egg and producing little to no offense, as evidenced by three months of the regular season.
To make matters worse, the two-time All-Star has a poor track record in his postseason career. He played on some strong Nationals and Dodgers teams (even winning a World Series ring with the Nats back in 2019), but has a combined .238 batting average in 43 career playoff games. In that time, he has struck out 50 times and walked just 10 times. It's going to be crucial for the Phillies to get the August and September version of him.
Phillies who will make-or-break another World Series run: Kyle Schwarber
At the plate, Kyle Schwarber is having himself one of the weirdest seasons in recent memory. The 30-year-old is once again having a power surge, tying his career high in home runs with 46 and boasting a career-high 101 RBI in 157 games played, also a personal best.
However, he also leads the majors in strikeouts (again) with 212 and somehow has a batting average below .200 but an OPS+ of 121. He is having a season reminiscent of Joey Gallo, Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn in that he strikes out in what feels like every single at-bat but remains a positive run-producer.
That is exactly why he's capable of making or breaking the Phillies' playoff run. The guy is an absolute machine who is capable of hitting a baseball to the next city over, but he provides value in just one way: hitting home runs. There is no defense to speak of, he can't run the bases well, isn't a singles hitter and doesn't hit the ball in the gaps very much. The Phillies are going to have to cross their fingers that they just so happen to get him on a hot streak entering the postseason or he is going to represent a virtual black hole in their starting lineup.
If there's a saving grace for Schwarber and the Phillies, it's the fact that he has a ton of playoff experience, including the major role he played in 2022's run. In the Wild Card and Division Series last year, he did next to nothing, going just 1-for-20 in the process. It wasn't until the Championship Series and eventually the World Series that his bat took off.
In the NLCS against the Padres, Schwarber went 6-for-15 with six runs scored, three home runs and six walks against just three strikeouts. Then, in the World Series against the Astros, he went 5-for-20 with five runs scored, three more home runs and six more walks. Suddenly, he was an on-base machine that was capable of doing great things for the club. This version of Schwarber is precisely what the Phillies need.
Phillies who will make-or-break another World Series run: Aaron Nola
A full season of 32 starts looks like vintage Aaron Nola at first glance. So does the 12 wins and the 200+ strikeouts that he posted for the fifth straight year (the COVID-shortened 2020 season doesn't count). But his ERA? 4.46. His FIP? 4.03. His ERA+? 96. Maybe things didn't go so well for Nola.
Unfortunately, the 30-year-old was not able to get it done on a consistent basis for the Phillies this season. All of a sudden, his walks were way up after leading the National League in BB/9 last year, his home runs skyrocketed all the way up to 1.5 HR/9, a career worst for him. His H/9 sits at 8.3 as well, which is the highest he's had since all the way back in 2017. Through and through, the pending free agent just did not look like himself this year, and the contract he signs in free agency in a few months may be reflective of that.
Perhaps people were too quick to hand Nola the "ace" label, but his numbers suggest that he was right around ace level, especially over the course of the past two seasons. Instead, he regressed in a big way this year and is now falling into the category of "good when he's on but unwatchable when he's off."
In his postseason career, the right-hander has made a total of five starts, with the first two going well and the next three ... not so much. Last year, he pitched a combined 12.2 shutout innings (an unearned run scored in one of the outings) in starts against the Cardinals and Braves, striking out 12 total batters and walking three. Then, he surrendered six runs on seven hits, including two home runs, in his NLCS start against the Padres. After that, he made two World Series starts against Houston and melted down even more, surrendering eight earned runs on 13 hits with two more home runs.
Over the course of this season, Nola has either been a pitcher capable of striking out batters in the double-digits or one that allows five or more earned runs in a single outing. It seems there's never been room for anything in between. Getting him in line alongside fellow stud starters Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker is of the utmost importance for the Phillies.
