After a disastrous loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics must consider some big changes, including trading Jaylen Brown.
Jaylen Brown was absolutely phenomenal during the regular season, setting career highs nearly across the board and making All-NBA Second Team. That latter honor makes him eligible for a supermax extension at the end of next season, which could be worth as much as $295 million over five years.
Deciding to commit nearly $100 million combined per season to him and Jayson Tatum was always going to be a big decision for the Celtics. But the math has only been complicated by Brown's struggles against the Heat — his scoring average dropping for the second consecutive playoff round, shooting just 41.8 percent from the field and 16.3 percent from beyond the arc and completely melting down with 8 turnovers and 1-of-9 from beyond the arc in Game 7.
Brown is an immensely talented player but his new contract could lock the Celtics into a core that they may not be convinced can get them a title. And if they decide it won't work, they're likely better off trading him this summer, rather than dragging it out into next season.
The trick is that if the Celtics are going to trade Jaylen Brown they'll have to find a partner who can absorb his current salary and be willing to pay him the supermax extension he's eligible for but which wouldn't kick in until the end of next season. That limits the possibilities but there are still hypotheticals that put Brown in a good situation where he can take on a leadership role, and in which the Celtics preserve their competitiveness and flexibility for the future.
Jaylen Brown replacements for the Celtics: 3. Kevin Porter Jr.
If part of the rationale for trading Brown is seeking more consistency, Kevin Porter Jr. is … not that. He's smaller than Brown, a much less accomplished defender and doesn't have any real track record of producing in a winning situation. But he's athletic with untapped scoring potential and he was a versatile producer in the chaos of the Rockets, averaging 19.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game last season, shooting 36.6 percent from beyond the arc.
But the hypothetical appeal for the Celtics would be landing an immediate stopgap with some upside and a package of other pieces and picks to make it worth their while. The Celtics could theoretically demand Porter Jr., Tari Eason and both of the Rockets' picks in this year's draft — No. 4 and No. 20.
If Harden isn't coming to the Rockets, this is a chance for them to add a legitimate star and a strong mentor for Jalen Green and the rest of this young roster, someone who can help stabilize them on the court (this may be especially valuable if Brown developed a good relationship with Ime Udoka). For the Celtics, they get a starter to take Brown's place, a Grant Williams replacement or understudy in Eason and then potentially another high-upside player like Cam Whitmore, Amen or Ausar Thompson or Jarace Walker near the top of the draft, along with whatever they decide to value at No. 20.
It's certainly not the best win-now package for the Celtics, but it offers an interesting mix of present and future value.
Jaylen Brown replacements for the Celtics: 2. Bradley Beal
This is another tough sell — it doesn't really save the Celtics any money since Beal's contract is just as hefty as Brown's supermax extension would be, although that financial commitment would end two years early. In addition, Beal is smaller, older, a far inferior defender and, like Porter Jr., has a history of putting up big numbers on terrible teams.
But if the Celtics feel like they need to move on from Brown for culture or chemistry reasons they're going to have a tough time replacing both halves of his two-way contributions. But Beal, at least on paper, gives them everything they were getting on offense from Brown … and perhaps a little more.
It's hard to know how much to read into Beal's numbers the past two seasons as the Wizards cratered, the roster dissolved around him and there were precious few reasons to buy in. But Beal is just two years removed from back-to-back seasons averaging over 30 points per game. His 3-point percentages have plummeted as he's carried an increased on-ball offensive load but could easily rebound to above 40 percent with the gravity of Tatum and a lighter offensive load.
In addition, the Wizards could probably be coaxed into adding another young player like Deni Avdija or Johnny Davis. Again, this trade doesn't perfectly fill the void Brown would leave but from an offensive perspective it might be the Celtics' best win-now option.
Jaylen Brown replacements for the Celtics: 1. OG Anunoby
This scenario gives the Celtics a defensive upgrade, a win-now boost and a player similarly young with plenty of upside. But there are plenty of complicating factors that could make this a challenge.
At this point, Anunoby is a solid spot-up threat and has shown some juice as a complementary scorer and creator. But he's nowhere near Brown's level in that regard and, in his present state, he might be a downgrade for the Celtics offense. It's possible that Anunoby has more offensive upside than he's had a chance to show in Toronto and it's not outside the realm of possibility that he can duplicate a lot more of what Brown did, while simultaneously providing a lot more on defense.
The Celtics might be able to pry an additional offensive asset from the Raptors — say Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr., with Trent guaranteed an extension since he would need to pick up his player option. That would be a lot more palatable for Boston and give them another offensive creator and shooter off the bench to help juice the second-unit offense and create added offensive flexibility. But the problem is Toronto's asking price.
At the trade deadline, the Raptors were reportedly looking for as many as three first-round picks for Anunoby. That may have been a negotiating ploy but if that really is the kind of package they're looking for, they may insist on essentially a one-for-one Brown for Anunoby swap. The Celtics would need to take back additional salary to make it work but it would probably be a player with far less utility to either team, say Thad Young and one more fringe bench player.
In that case, the Celtics would, on paper, be getting the lesser overall talent in the deal but betting on Anunoby's offensive development and whatever they can manage with the flexibility and savings of his smaller contract.
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